The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% today, as expected. The vote, however, was split 10-2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, as both wanted a quarter-point hike right away. Afterward, Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed’s “monetary medicine” is starting to work, while insisting that 2% remains the target.
This morning I laid out the setup in the FOMC October 28 preview. Here is what the Fed decided, what Warsh said, and how crypto reacted.
What the Fed Decided
The committee voted 10-2 to leave the federal funds range unchanged. In its statement, the Fed said uncertainty remains high, partly because of geopolitical developments. That is a nod to oil and the Middle East, which have driven inflation fears all month.
The vote count matters. In July, three members dissented for a hike while Warsh voted to hold. In September, the hike passed unanimously. Today, two officials again wanted to tighten immediately. Clearly, the hawks haven’t gone anywhere.
Before the decision, CME FedWatch priced a 93% chance of a hold. Markets also priced a December hike as the most likely outcome.
What Warsh Said
I watched it live, as I do every Fed day. Honestly, the market usually tells me faster than Warsh does whether he leaned hawkish or dovish.
The monetary medicine is working. Asked why the Fed didn’t hike today, Warsh pointed to September. That hike removed a dose of accommodation, and according to him, the overwhelming judgment on the committee is that this “monetary medicine” is starting to work. He added that inflation expectations are moving the right way.
No soft target. Even so, Warsh made clear there is no soft inflation target. In his words, 2% is the target. He called inflation too high and said energy prices have risen again in recent weeks. His job, he added, is to stop that from spreading into broader prices.
December stays open. Warsh described the coming weeks as information rich, and said price stability isn’t about a fixed date on a calendar. In other words, he didn’t promise a December hike, but he didn’t rule one out either. The Fed has shown it is ready to act, he said.
A strong economy. On growth, Warsh expects Q3 GDP above 3%, led by consumer spending. Business investment is also running at historically high levels.
The AI question. One reporter asked whether the US economy is now too tied to AI. Warsh lightened the mood with a joke about whether you call it AI or SI, as in superintelligence.
Fewer voting meetings. Finally, Warsh announced a calendar change. The 2027 and 2028 schedules keep eight meetings each, but some won’t carry a policy vote. The idea is to free up time for longer-term discussions.
How Crypto and Markets Reacted
So far, the reaction is calm. Markets had already priced a hawkish hold, with roughly a quarter-point hike expected in December. The dollar slipped after Warsh’s comments, as traders read “the medicine is working” as less urgency.
Bitcoin trades around $81,100, up about 0.5% on the day. Ether sits near $2,358, Solana near $102 and HYPE around $81. Nothing has broken out of the range yet.
The levels from the Bitcoin 79K post still apply. Support sits at $80,000 and the $79,100 sweep low. Above, the 50-day moving average near $81,800 caps the bounce, with $84,000 as the range top. A close above $81,800 would be the first real bullish signal since the weekend sweep.
What Comes Next
The Fed decision is only the start of a heavy stretch. Tonight, Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings after the close. Then Thursday brings Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation at 8:30 AM ET.
PCE matters most. September CPI already came in hot at 3.7%, as covered in the CPI 3.7% post. Warsh called the coming period information rich, and this is the first big data point. A hot PCE print would push December toward a done deal. A soft one, on the other hand, supports his view that the medicine is working. After that, the ECB decides Thursday, the Bank of Japan on Friday, and the US midterms follow on November 3.
My Trades After the Decision
My Solana long is closed. It hit its first target this morning, so the stop sat at entry. Then the pre-FOMC pullback took it out at entry. That’s exactly what the rule is for: a small first target locked in, and no loss on the rest.
Three longs are still open: BTC, ETH and HYPE. HYPE has already locked in profits at its first two targets, and its stop sits at entry. BTC and ETH still run with their original stops, and those cover the case of a hot PCE print tomorrow.
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Final Words
The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00%, but two members wanted a hike now. Warsh struck a confident tone: the monetary medicine is working, inflation expectations are improving, and 2% is the only target. He kept December open without committing to it.
Crypto took it calmly, with Bitcoin holding above $81,000. Thursday’s PCE print now decides whether December becomes a done deal. Until then, $80,000 below and $81,800 above remain the levels to watch.
FAQ
Did the Fed raise rates on October 28, 2026?
No. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote.
Who dissented at the October Fed meeting?
Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. Both preferred an immediate quarter-point hike.
What did Warsh mean by “monetary medicine”?
Warsh said September’s rate hike removed a dose of accommodation, and the committee broadly believes that medicine is starting to work. That is why the Fed chose to wait instead of hiking again today.
Will the Fed hike in December?
It’s possible. Warsh didn’t commit, saying price stability isn’t tied to a calendar date. Markets still price roughly a quarter-point hike at the December 8 to 9 meeting.
How did Bitcoin react to the Fed decision?
Calmly. Bitcoin traded around $81,100 after the press conference, inside its $80,000 to $84,000 range.
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