The FOMC October 28 decision drops today at 2:00 PM ET (18:00 UTC). Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75% to 4.00%. CME FedWatch prices that hold at roughly 90%, while a December hike sits near 73%. Kevin Warsh starts his press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
So the decision itself is unlikely to move much. Instead, the real trade is the tone. I covered the full week calendar on Monday in the Bitcoin 79K post. Today is about the decision itself: why Fed days get so volatile, what to watch, three Bitcoin scenarios, and where my longs stand.
What the Fed Is Expected to Do Today
The Fed raised rates on September 16 for the first time since July 2023. That vote was 12 to 0. Today, almost nobody expects a second hike in a row.
The numbers tell the story. CME FedWatch showed a 92.8% chance of a hold on Monday. During Tuesday’s session it slipped to about 88%. A month ago, however, the hold sat at only 36%. In addition, a Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expect no change today. Every single one of them expects a hike in December.
Fed speakers also prepared the market. Williams, Jefferson, Bowman and Waller all signaled a preference for a slower pace of tightening. Warsh did not push back on that. Still, not everyone is convinced. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos wrote that the data make this a closer call than the odds suggest.
Finally, this meeting has no new dot plot. The Fed publishes economic projections at only four of its eight meetings. October is not one of them.
Why Fed Days Are So Volatile for Crypto
Fed days compress a lot of information into a few minutes. The statement lands at 2:00 PM ET. Thirty minutes later, Warsh takes questions live. Algorithms, bond desks and leveraged traders react to every word in real time.
Crypto feels that more than most markets. First, it trades around the clock on high leverage, so stops and liquidations cluster near the release. Second, Bitcoin trades against the dollar. A hawkish read lifts the dollar and short-term yields, and that usually weighs on risk assets. Third, liquidity thins out right before the print, because market makers pull their quotes.
The result is the classic Fed day candle. Price often spikes one way, then reverses within the hour. That whipsaw takes out traders on both sides before the real direction shows.
Importantly, a hold is not automatically bullish. After the January 28 hold this year, Bitcoin fell 18.4% within a week. What moves price is the surprise, not the decision. With a hold priced near 90%, today’s surprise can only come from the statement, the dissents or Warsh’s answers.
How We Got Here: Hot CPI, Weak Jobs
Two data points shaped this meeting. The first was the September jobs report. Payrolls rose by just 29,000, and unemployment came in at 4.2%. That gave the Fed room to wait.
The second was inflation. September CPI landed at 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast and up from 3.4% in August. On a monthly basis, prices jumped 0.6%, the biggest monthly rise in five months. I broke that print down in the CPI 3.7% post.
The market reaction was violent. On CPI day, the odds of an October hike jumped above 40%. Over the next two weeks, they faded back toward 10% as Fed officials talked down the urgency. In short, the jobs data bought the Fed time, while inflation pushed the next hike to December.
What to Watch at 2:00 PM and 2:30 PM ET
The headline rate will most likely stay put. Therefore, four details decide how markets react.
The vote count. In July, three members dissented in favor of a hike, while Warsh voted to hold. In September, the hike was unanimous. Hawkish dissents today would tell the market that December is close to locked.
The inflation language. Watch whether the statement adds stronger wording on inflation. Any upgrade in concern reads hawkish.
The December signal. This is the big one. If Warsh says the committee expects further tightening, December gets cemented. On the other hand, a heavy focus on incoming data could trim those odds.
Oil and the election. Expect questions about oil and the midterms on November 3. Any comment that energy prices drive the outlook matters for crypto. After all, oil has been the main risk on every chart this month.
Three Scenarios for Bitcoin Today
Bitcoin trades around $80,900 this morning, up about 1% in 24 hours. Monday’s levels still apply. Support sits at $80,000 and the $79,100 sweep low. Resistance sits at the 50-day moving average near $81,800, then the $84,000 range top.
Hawkish hold. Rates stay put, but dissents or Warsh’s tone lock in December. In that case, the dollar firms and BTC likely retests $80,000. A daily close under $79,100 would turn last weekend’s sweep into a breakdown, with $78,000 next.
Neutral hold. Rates stay put, and December stays open without a commitment. This is the base case. Expect a fast spike both ways, then a drift back into the $80,000 to $84,000 range. A reclaim of $81,800 would be the first bullish sign.
Surprise hike. A quarter point today would shock a market pricing about 10% odds. Leverage would flush fast, and $78,000 comes into play quickly. I see this as the least likely outcome. Even so, it hurts most if you are unprepared.
The Rest of the Week: Big Tech, PCE and the Midterms
Today does not end at 2:30 PM. Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings after the close. AI spending fears already hit tech last week, so their numbers can move risk assets overnight. Meanwhile, Strategy shareholders vote on a new preferred dividend plan, and the Bank of Canada decides on rates.
Thursday matters even more. Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation land at 8:30 AM ET. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hot number would confirm whatever hawkish signal Warsh gives today. Later that day the ECB decides, and Amazon reports. The Bank of Japan closes the week on Friday.
After that, the midterms follow on November 3. Since 1990, the Fed has hiked within a week of an Election Day only once. That precedent is one more reason the market expects patience today.
Where My Longs Stand Going Into the Decision
On Monday I re-entered longs from the range lows. Here is where each one sits this morning. Sizes stay private, as always.
HYPE long from $75.59. Once again, HYPE did the heavy lifting. Both my first and second targets filled, and the stop now sits at entry. That makes it a free trade.
SOL long from $101.41. Solana hit my first target at $103.34 this morning. As a result, its stop moved to entry too.
BTC long from $80,466. Bitcoin is slightly up, but no target has filled yet. My first target sits at $84,900.
ETH long from $2,363.4. Ether remains the laggard, slightly under entry. The first target is $2,434.
So I already derisked a little going into the Fed. Two of my four longs carry zero risk. BTC and ETH still have their stops for the hawkish case.
My process for days like this stays simple. A first target closes only a small piece, and its job is moving the stop to entry. That way, a winning trade never turns into a losing one. I explained that system in Part 36 on take-profit strategy. On top of that, I close manually when a move turns sharp against me, rather than waiting for the stop.
Before the July meeting, I wrote about this exact mindset in my FOMC crypto preview. The print itself rarely does the damage. Overleveraged positions do.
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Final Words
The FOMC October 28 decision should be a hold at 3.75% to 4.00%. Futures, economists and Fed speakers all point the same way. Therefore, the market will trade the details: the vote count, the inflation wording and Warsh’s December signal.
Expect a whipsaw around 2:00 PM ET, and don’t chase the first candle. Big Tech earnings tonight and PCE on Thursday then decide whether Bitcoin reclaims $81,800 or slips back toward $79,100.
I derisked a little ahead of the decision. Two of my longs are already risk-free, while BTC and ETH keep their stops for the hawkish case.
FAQ
What time is the FOMC decision today?
The Fed announces its decision at 2:00 PM ET (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday, October 28. Kevin Warsh’s press conference starts at 2:30 PM ET.
Will the Fed raise rates on October 28?
Probably not. CME FedWatch prices a hold at roughly 90%, and 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect no change.
What is the current Fed interest rate?
The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed set it with the September 16 hike.
Is there a dot plot at the October meeting?
No. The Fed only releases economic projections in March, June, September and December.
How does the Fed decision affect Bitcoin?
A hawkish signal lifts the dollar and yields, which usually pressures Bitcoin. A patient tone makes a relief rally easier. Most of the move comes from surprises, not from the expected decision.
When is the next Fed meeting?
December 8 to 9, 2026. Futures price roughly a 73% chance of a hike at that meeting.
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