Ethereum trades around $2,300 on Monday, November 2. It is coming off a 13% red October and the largest hack in crypto history. I entered an ETH long at $2,284 this morning, with my stop at $2,230. This post covers the macro week ahead, the price action behind the dip and the chart levels I am watching for the bounce.
Where ETH Stands Right Now
ETH printed a low near $2,170 on Friday, right as the Binance news hit the market. Since then it has clawed back to the $2,280 to $2,310 range. Sunday closed green and Monday opened green. That is two small steps up after a month of steps down.
The broader picture is still weak. ETH closed October around 13% lower, and Bitcoin had its second straight red October. Spot ETH ETFs recorded about $1.61 billion in net outflows last month, their worst month since launch. In short, the heavy feeling in the market is real.
Yet heavy markets are where bounces start. Sellers had every reason to push lower over the weekend, and they could not. Instead, price consolidated above the Friday low. That is the setup I am trading.
The Binance Hack Dip
Late last week, roughly $6.3 billion left Binance hot wallets in about 20 minutes. The attacker moved over 195,000 ETH on Ethereum alone, plus hundreds of millions in stablecoins and over 18,000 BTC. The FBI has attributed it to North Korea. I wrote the full breakdown in my Binance hack post mortem, which I will update once Binance publishes its technical report.
The market reaction was sharp but not catastrophic. About $1.6 billion in futures positions got liquidated. ETH dropped to $2,170, and Bitcoin touched a six-week low around $76,300. Compared to the panic many expected, that was mild.
Binance reopened withdrawals in phases on November 1. In the first 9.5 hours, users pulled roughly $3.6 billion net. That sounds scary, but it is about 2% of the assets Binance disclosed. Withdrawals are flowing, SAFU covered the losses, and a proof of reserves report is due November 3.
For traders, the bigger lesson sits in custody. Where do you keep your trading capital now? I compared the main perp DEX models in which DEX is safe. Read that before you move funds anywhere.
Macro Week: Midterms, Jobs Report and a Hawkish Fed
This is one of the busier macro weeks of the quarter. Expect volatility from Monday through Friday.
On Tuesday, November 3, the US votes in the midterm elections. Control of Congress decides what happens to pending crypto legislation like the CLARITY Act. Prediction markets on Polymarket have priced these races for months, so the result itself may matter less than any surprise.
Then on Friday, November 6, the October jobs report lands at 8:30 am ET. Jobs days are volatile because they move rate expectations. The Fed held rates on October 28, but Chair Warsh called inflation still elevated. Markets now see a higher chance of a hike at the December 9 meeting. A hot jobs number pushes those odds up and pressures risk assets. A weak number does the opposite.
Between those two, ADP and ISM services data arrive Wednesday. The Bank of England decides Thursday, with a hike expected. Apple, Palantir and AMD report earnings after tech stocks sold off hard last week on AI spending worries.
Oil adds another layer. Brent trades above $110 on Iran tensions, though talks about reopening the Strait of Hormuz pulled it down 2% on Friday. Energy prices feed straight into inflation expectations, which feed into the Fed.
All of that explains the heavy feel. None of it changes my view that a bounce is likely from here.
ETH Price Action: ETF Outflows vs Record Staking
Two forces are fighting over ETH right now.
The bear case is institutional selling. US spot ETH ETFs have seen outflows for 23 consecutive trading days through the end of October. BlackRock’s ETHA led the redemptions. ETF net assets fell from about $17.6 billion to $13.2 billion in a single month. Bitmine, one of the largest ETH buyers this year, is expected to stop buying by the end of November. On top of that, the next Glamsterdam testnet run got postponed, which removed a near-term catalyst.
The bull case is onchain. Staked ETH hit a record 43.8 million, about 36% of supply. That is supply leaving the liquid market every week. Funding rates dropped to their lowest level since the June bottom, which means shorts are crowded. One whale bought roughly $62 million of ETH in a single day over the weekend.
So institutions sell through ETFs while onchain holders lock supply and shorts pile in. Historically, that combination produces squeezes, not crashes. I am not calling a bottom. I am saying the risk-reward on a long near $2,280 looks better than the risk-reward on a short.
The Chart: Levels I’m Watching
ETH has printed lower highs and lower lows since the October high near $2,750. The daily MACD is still bearish, but the histogram is narrowing. Momentum is fading on the downside.
Key levels right now:
Resistance at $2,300 to $2,320. ETH tested $2,314 on Monday and needs a clean daily close above this zone.
Next resistance at $2,350, then $2,400. The 50-day moving average sits near $2,400. The 200-day runs just above it, around $2,420. Those two averages are the real ceiling for this bounce.
Support at $2,250 and $2,233. These are the weekend lows. My stop sits just under them.
Deeper support at $2,170, the Friday low. Below that, the chart opens toward $1,940.
Price sits below both major moving averages. That keeps the trend bearish on the daily. However, a 5% bounce into the $2,400 zone is a normal move inside a downtrend. That is the move I am positioned for.
My Trades: Long ETH, SOL and TRX
I entered the ETH long at $2,284 this morning. My stop is at $2,230, under the weekend lows. The first level I want to see is a reclaim of $2,320. Beyond that, the $2,400 moving average cluster is the obvious target.
My rules stay the same as always. Once the first target hits, I close a small part and move the stop to entry. From there the trade cannot lose money. Either it runs or it stops at breakeven. I never turn a winning trade into a losing one.
Beyond ETH, I am also long SOL and TRX. All three fit the same thesis. Prices look heavy after the hack dip, but a few days of consolidation have followed, and the sellers could not break the lows. Those are the spots where bounces start. Every position has a tight stop and a close first target.
Please do not copy my entries blindly. Study the setup, understand why the stop sits where it sits and size it for your own account.
HYPE: Stopped Out, Watching for a New Entry
Not every trade works. I went long HYPE right after the Binance hack, expecting a quick bounce in the token most likely to benefit from exchange trust issues. The bounce never came in my window. My stop hit last night.
That is fine. A stop-out means one thing: the timing was wrong. It does not mean the idea was wrong. HYPE is still the coin I held through the entire bear market, and Hyperliquid is still my daily trading venue.
I am watching HYPE for a fresh entry. If the market bounces and HYPE holds its weekly range, I want to be long again. If it loses the range, I wait. Chasing a re-entry right after a stop is how small losses become big ones.
More Trading Insights Every Week
Weeks like this one, with midterms, a jobs report and a hack hangover, are exactly what my trading newsletter is built for. Setups, invalidation levels and market context before they reach the blog. If you want it, sign up for the trading newsletter here. Nothing automatic, only for readers who actually want it.
Keep This Content Free
Tracking a hack, a macro week and three open positions at the same time takes hours, and posts like this stay free because readers use our links. If you are trading this bounce, claim a signup bonus through them. It costs you nothing and keeps the research coming.
And since you will be glued to the charts this week anyway, put that volume to work with our trading airdrops too.
Final Words
ETH looks heavy, and so does everything else. ETF money keeps leaving, the Fed sounds hawkish and the biggest hack in history just hit the biggest exchange. Still, price refused to break lower over the weekend, shorts are crowded and onchain supply keeps shrinking. That is why I am long from $2,284 with a tight stop.
Midterms tomorrow and the jobs report on Friday will decide whether this bounce has legs. I will update my positions on X as they move.
Meanwhile, if you have been active on Ethereum this cycle, run the Ethereum airdrop checker. Unclaimed tokens from old wallets are the cheapest ETH exposure you will ever get.
See you in the next one.
FAQ
Why is ETH bouncing after the Binance hack?
Binance covered the $6.3 billion loss, reopened withdrawals on November 1 and avoided a systemic crisis. With crowded shorts and record staking, buyers stepped in near $2,170 and pushed ETH back toward $2,300.
What are the key ETH levels this week?
Resistance sits at $2,300 to $2,320, then $2,400 where the 50-day and 200-day moving averages cluster. Support sits at $2,250, $2,233 and the Friday low at $2,170.
Which macro events move crypto this week?
The US midterm elections on November 3 and the October jobs report on November 6 are the two main events. ADP data, the Bank of England decision and big tech earnings fill the days between.
Why are Ethereum ETFs seeing outflows?
US spot ETH ETFs lost about $1.61 billion in October, with 23 straight days of redemptions. Institutions reduced risk during the drawdown while onchain holders kept staking at record levels.
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