Midterms and Bitcoin have a clear historical pattern. Bitcoin tends to chop or dip into the election, then rallies in the twelve months after it. The vote is tomorrow, November 3. Bitcoin sits near $77,800 after a tech-led sell-off last week. Polymarket prices Democrats at 88% to take the House. In this post I cover what history says, why tech stocks matter, and how I am positioned for the days after the midterms.
What history says about midterms and Bitcoin
Bitcoin has lived through three midterms with real liquidity: 2014, 2018 and 2022. After each one, BTC closed the following twelve months higher. Binance Research put the average post-midterm gain at around 54%. The S&P 500 shows the same thing. Since 1939, the index has never posted a negative return in the year after a midterm.
There is a catch, though. The first weeks after the vote are often ugly. In 2018, Bitcoin dropped about 45% in the month after the midterms before it bottomed. In 2022, the FTX collapse landed in the same week as the election. So the pattern is not “buy election day and relax”. Instead, it is “the bottom tends to form around the midterms, and the year after is strong”.
Why does this happen? Midterm years carry policy uncertainty. Nobody knows which party will write the rules on taxes, spending and regulation. Once the result is in, that uncertainty disappears. Risk assets usually get bid when a known outcome replaces an unknown one, even if the outcome itself is not great.
Polymarket says 88% Democrats
Polymarket has Democrats at 88% to win the House. The Senate market is closer, with Democrats holding a slight edge. For a market that resolves tomorrow, 88% is close to a done deal.
That matters for crypto in two ways. First, the result is already priced. A Democrat House will not shock anyone, so the “uncertainty removed” effect kicks in no matter who wins. Second, a split Congress means gridlock. Big new crypto legislation becomes harder to pass. However, gridlock has historically been fine for markets. Less policy change means fewer surprises.
I track all of this on our Polymarket airdrop listing. If you want to trade the midterm markets yourself, you can sign up for Polymarket here.
Tech stocks sold off right before the vote
Bitcoin still trades like a risk asset. More specifically, it trades like a leveraged tech stock. Last week proved it again. Big Tech sold off on worries about AI spending, and Bitcoin followed within hours.
This is the part most people skip when they talk about midterms and Bitcoin. The election is only one input. If the Nasdaq keeps bleeding, crypto will not decouple on its own. On the other hand, if tech bounces after the vote, Bitcoin usually bounces harder.
So my base case is simple. We may have a little more sideways to swallow this week. The election result, a few more earnings and the next Fed signal all land close together. After that, I think up into year end is the logical path. Q4 has been kind to crypto in past cycles, and the post-midterm window is historically the strongest part of the four-year political cycle.
My current trades going into the midterms
I shared my full setup in my ETH long after the Binance hack, so here is the short version.
My ETH long from $2,284 is still open. The stop sits at $2,230, just under the weekend lows. First target is a reclaim of $2,320, then the $2,400 zone where the moving averages cluster. ETH trades right around my entry today, so nothing has changed yet.
SOL and TRX are the same thesis. Both got heavy after the hack dip, but sellers failed to break the lows over several days. Both positions have tight stops and close first targets. TRX actually bounced a bit today, which is a nice sign for the rest of the basket.
HYPE stopped me out last week. The bounce I expected did not come. I am watching it again now.
Entries I am eyeing: BTC, HYPE and DOGE
Three names are on my watchlist for the post-midterm move.
Bitcoin sits near $77,800. I do not want to buy the chop before the result. Instead, I want to see a reclaim of the levels lost in last week’s sell-off. If that happens with the election behind us, I will take a long with a stop under the weekly low.
HYPE trades around $86 after a sharp spike and fade. I want to be long again only if it holds its weekly range. A clean higher low would be my trigger.
DOGE is the pure risk-on play at around $0.075. Dogecoin tends to move late and move fast when Bitcoin confirms a trend. I am not early here. I will wait for BTC to lead and then look for a DOGE entry on the first pullback.
None of these are live yet. Every entry needs a confirmed level, not a hope.
Keep This Content Free
Tracking the midterms, the tech tape and three open positions at the same time is a lot of screen time. This site stays free because readers use our links. If you are trading the post-election move, you can claim a signup bonus through OKX or Bybit at no cost to you. It keeps the research going. And while you wait for the market to pick a direction, keep an eye on the trading airdrops we track. Points programs do not care about election results.
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Final Words
Midterms and Bitcoin have a well-documented relationship. The year after the vote has been positive every time so far. Still, the weeks right after can hurt, and tech stocks are the bigger driver this week. My plan is to hold my current longs with tight stops, let the result come in, and add BTC, HYPE or DOGE only on confirmed reclaims. Sideways first, then up, is what the setup suggests. I will update this once the votes are counted.
FAQ
Does Bitcoin go up after midterms?
Historically, yes. Bitcoin closed higher twelve months after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms. The average gain was around 54%. The first month after the vote has often been negative, though, so timing matters.
Why do tech stocks affect Bitcoin around the midterms?
Most of the market treats Bitcoin as a risk asset, similar to a high-beta tech stock. When Big Tech sells off, crypto usually follows. A tech rebound after the election would likely pull Bitcoin up with it.
What does Polymarket say about the 2026 midterms?
Polymarket prices Democrats at about 88% to take the House, with a smaller edge in the Senate. A split Congress points to gridlock, which markets have historically handled fine.
Should I buy Bitcoin before or after the midterms?
I am not buying the chop before the result. My plan is to wait for the election to pass and buy a confirmed reclaim of lost levels, with a stop under the weekly low. This is my approach, not advice.
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