I went long Dogecoin at $0.0797 on the Bybit perp this weekend. The stop sits at $0.0759, about 4.8% below entry, and my first target is around $0.087. DOGE has been grinding sideways on a shelf between $0.078 and $0.080 that held in June, again in September, and now a third time in October. That shelf is the whole trade.
Honestly, I would not mind one more sweep of the low. A flush under $0.078 followed by a fast reclaim would look better than what we have now. Still, the setup is good enough to give it a try, and this post explains why.
The Flat Pattern I Was Watching Since the High
I never shared this chart, but I had been eyeing it since the early October high near $0.105. From that top, DOGE did not trend down cleanly. Instead, it chopped lower in overlapping legs, the kind of structure that looks like a flat correction rather than a fresh downtrend.
Flats tend to end with a final push into old support. In this case, that support is the June low zone around $0.078. Price tagged $0.0779 on October 16, bounced within hours, and has traded inside the $0.078 to $0.080 box ever since. Under the lows, a descending line connects the October wicks. One more poke below that line would be a classic stop hunt before a turn.
That sweep has not happened yet. Therefore I took a starter position at the range low instead of waiting for a perfect flush that may never come. If the sweep arrives and the reclaim holds, I will add. If it arrives and never reclaims, the stop takes care of it.
Macro: Hot CPI, Fed Blackout, and the October 28 Decision
The reason DOGE sits on this shelf is not a Dogecoin story. It is a rates story.
On October 14, the September CPI came in hot. Headline inflation printed 3.7% year over year against 3.6% expected, up from 3.4% in August. Core came in at 2.6% versus 2.5% expected, and the monthly headline jump of 0.6% was the largest in five months. Rate-hike odds for the October 27 to 28 meeting roughly doubled on the print, from about 21% to 47%, before fading back toward 15% after Fed Chair Warsh spoke on Friday.
Bitcoin lost $80,000 on the day and then bounced. Spot Bitcoin ETFs bled roughly $681 million in the week to October 9 and another $157 million last week. Meme coins never get spared in that environment, and DOGE dropped around 14% in October as a result.
Now the Fed is in its blackout period from October 17 to 29. No speeches, no leaks. This week brings only housing data, jobless claims, and Friday’s PMIs on the US side, so crypto volatility will likely come from big tech earnings instead. Tesla, Meta, and Netflix all report. Then the FOMC decision lands on October 28, followed by Q3 GDP and September PCE on October 29.
For my trade, that calendar matters. A quiet week with no Fed noise gives a range low a chance to hold. The decision itself is the first real test, and I will know by then whether this long still deserves a stop at $0.0759.
Dogecoin TA: The Levels That Matter
Here is the Dogecoin chart in three levels.
Support: $0.078 to $0.080. This box has caught every dip since June. The June low, the mid-September low, and the October 16 low all landed here. Below it, my stop at $0.0759 sits under the descending line, so a sweep of the lows does not knock me out.
Resistance: $0.087 to $0.089. The 50-day and 20-day moving averages both hover in this zone, and the mid-October consolidation topped out there before the final leg down. This is my first target. A daily close above $0.09 would be the first sign the correction is actually over.
Range high: $0.118. The May and September tops both stalled near this level. It is far away, and a lot would have to change for DOGE to see it. However, the full range projection on my Risk Lab chart points there, so it stays on the map as the stretch target.
Two more things stand out. On-chain, whales added about 130 million DOGE since October 8, and more coins left exchanges than arrived in the week to October 11, per CoinGlass data. Meanwhile, one wallet dumped 300 million DOGE on Binance on October 15, and the price only dipped to $0.0801 before bouncing. Buyers absorbed that supply. On the flip side, 81% of DOGE accounts on OKX were long on Friday, which is a crowded boat and a reason to keep the position small until the reclaim confirms.
The Trade: Entry, Stop, and Target
Entry: $0.0797, long on the Bybit perp, 1H chart.
Stop: $0.0759, which is a 4.79% risk.
TP1: around $0.087, roughly 2R from entry.
If TP1 hits, I will move the stop to entry and let the rest run toward the $0.09 reclaim. If DOGE sweeps the low first, I treat it as a second entry rather than a reason to panic. The playbook is the same one I laid out in our buy the dip strategy guide: buy the level, define the invalidation, and let price decide.
As always, this is my own money and my own risk. Do not copy the size. If you prefer spot over perps, our first-time Dogecoin buying guide walks through the clean route without leverage. For context on where DOGE sits in the wider meme market, it still holds the number one spot on our ultimate meme coin shill list, and this range is where that number one coin gets bought.
Worth noting: the market’s attention has rotated hard into privacy this month. Capital that chased the Zcash run to $1,000 has to go somewhere once ZEC cools off. Dogs at range lows tend to be on that list.
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Final Words
Dogecoin at $0.08 is a boring trade, and boring is fine. The shelf has held three times, the stop is tight, and the macro calendar gives the level a quiet week to prove itself before the Fed speaks. One more sweep of the low would not bother me. A clean reclaim after that sweep would make me add.
There is also a personal angle to every DOGE post I write. Somewhere on an old drive sits the Dogecoin miner wallet I locked myself out of in 2014, with a few hundred thousand coins inside. Every rally reminds me of it. This time, at least, I have a position I can actually access.
See you in the next one.
Why did you go long Dogecoin at $0.08?
Price returned to a support shelf between $0.078 and $0.080 that held in June and September. The risk to the stop is under 5%, while the first target near $0.087 offers roughly 2R.
What invalidates the Dogecoin long?
A sustained break below $0.0759, under the descending line beneath the October lows. A quick sweep below $0.078 followed by a reclaim does not count as invalidation.
What is the Dogecoin price target?
The first target sits around $0.087, where the 20-day and 50-day averages and the mid-October consolidation meet. A daily close above $0.09 would open the path toward the $0.118 range high.
How does the Fed decision affect Dogecoin?
Hot September inflation raised rate-hike odds and pushed crypto lower. The Fed is in blackout until the October 28 decision, which is the next event that could break this range in either direction.
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