For much of the year, the cryptocurrency market has anxiously awaited what token could join Bitcoin and Ethereum with crypto-based ETFs. Now, the market seems as sure as ever about who that could be. Indeed, Ripple has seen its XRP ETF approval odds officially reach an all-time high of 98%.
Confidence in the investment product has seemingly never been higher. Moreover, it is rather surprising considering the plethora of delays that the application has received from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Now, it seems, the question has shifted to when the product will be approved, as opposed to if.
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Ripple XRP ETF Approval Odds Hit Record High Despite Ongoing SEC Delays
In early 2024, the United States saw the inaugural approval of two crypto-based ETFs. Not only did the greenlighted investment vehicle signal a shifting sentiment regarding the asset class, but it was undeniably successful. Specifically, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) firmly emerged as one of the most successful ETF launches in history.
Entering 2025, all eyes were on what cryptocurrencies could follow suit. Now, that question looks as close to having a surefire answer as it ever has. Indeed, Ripple has been the focus, with its XRP ETF approval odds reaching an all-time high of 98%.
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According to Polymarket data, the figure reached the record mark before retreating to the 93% threshold. Still, that showcases clear optimism from the industry that the token will eventually see the SEC greenlight the third crypto ETF in US history.
Now, traders have shifted their focus to when the approval could come. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart took to X (formerly Twitter) to give an updated timeline. “If we’re going to see early approval from the SEC on any of these assets, I wouldn’t expect to see them until late June or early July at the absolute earliest,” he wrote. “More likely to be in early Q4,” Seyffart added.
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