Bitcoin closed a daily candle below its 50-day moving average on Friday, October 23. That had not happened since August. The average sits near $81,800 this morning, and BTC trades around $80,700, so the line that caught every dip for two months now sits overhead.
I posted on X yesterday that I was closing my positions on the way down, everything except Bitcoin. Some trades closed a little up, others a little down. Nothing drastic, and that’s exactly what you want in a sharp move lower. This morning I re-opened. Below is the macro, the gold crash, and every entry, stop and first target.
What Is the Bitcoin 50-Day Moving Average?
The 50-day moving average is the average closing price of the last 50 days, plotted as one line on the chart. Traders use it as a trend gauge. When price holds above it, dips get bought and the trend stays up. When price closes below it, the line flips from support to resistance.
Since August, every pullback toward the 50-day got absorbed. Friday’s close broke that pattern. One close is not a trend change, however. The bulls now need to reclaim roughly $81,800 to put the line back under price. Until then, the burden of proof sits with them.
Why Bitcoin Broke the 50-Day Line
Thursday was the first leg. The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, its worst day since June, as AI spending fears hit the chip names. Meanwhile, Brent crude climbed above $112 after fresh attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil at that level keeps inflation alive, and inflation keeps the Fed hawkish.
Friday was the second leg. Brent touched $117.42, its highest since April. Then Trump said the US may run another operation against Iran. The Dow lost 652 points, and nearly three out of four S&P 500 stocks closed red. Bitcoin slid from the mid-$81K range to under $81K and never recovered the day.
The flow data tells the same story. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $635.6 million on Thursday, their biggest outflow since June, with another $138 million out on Friday. Across crypto, about $495 million got liquidated in 24 hours, $318 million of it from longs. I covered the first part of this slide in the Alpenglow mainnet post on Thursday. The second leg is what broke the moving average.
Gold Under $4,000: No Safe Haven This Week
Gold usually catches a bid when stocks sell off. Not this time. Spot gold dropped below $4,000 on Friday, with a low near $3,986. That is roughly 22% under the January record of $5,110. Silver lost 5.8% on Thursday alone and sits at an 11-month low.
Why did gold fall into a risk-off day? Two reasons. First, higher oil pushed December rate-hike odds toward 90%, and gold pays no yield. Second, investors ran to Treasuries instead of metals. The 10-year yield dropped almost 20 basis points, yet gold still fell. Analysts suspect forced selling, though nobody has confirmed the size.
For the scoreboard: gold ended 2025 near $4,354 and is now down about 8% for the year. Bitcoin ended 2025 near $87,500 and is down about 7.4%. The “sell Bitcoin, buy gold” trade is flat for 2026. Peter Brandt even warned that gold could erase its entire 2025 advance if the slide continues. The chart I wrote about in the Bitcoin 83K post looked very different ten days ago.
Why I Closed Everything Except Bitcoin
When a move turns sharp, I don’t wait for stops to hit. On Thursday afternoon I closed my ETH, SOL and HYPE longs manually and said so on X. Some were a bit green, some a bit red. The point of closing early is simple: it keeps a shallow pullback from turning into a stop-out at the worst price of the day.
Bitcoin was the exception. My BTC long from the $81.5K add survived the dip, and the first target is still $84K. The stop sits below Friday’s low, so the trade is not at breakeven yet. Still, BTC held above $80K through two ugly sessions. That is why it stayed on.
The method behind this is the same one I laid out in Part 36 on take-profit strategy. Small first target, stop to entry, and no winning trade turns into a loser. In a market like this, that rule does most of the work.
My Re-Entries This Morning
I re-opened at the start of the Asian session. Here is every trade with entry, stop and first target. Sizes stay private. The levels are what matter.
ETH long from $2,363.4. Stop at $2,250. First target at $2,434.
SOL long from $101.41. Stop at $97.80. First target at $103.34. This is a fresh trade, not the $103.8 long from Thursday.
HYPE long from $75.59. Stop at $73.60. First target at $79.80.
BTC long from $81.5K, still open. First target at $84K.
I also took a long on the S&P 500 through Trade.xyz, entered at 7,649.7 with a stop at 7,605 and a target at 7,946. The index is bouncing off its oil scare, and the perp trades around the clock. Our Trade.xyz review covers how those stock perps work. That one is red at the moment, so the stop is tight on purpose.
Every position is a long into a market that just lost its 50-day. So why long at all? Because the range is intact. BTC has been chopping between $80K and $84K for two weeks, and we are at the bottom of it. The first targets are close for a reason. Once they fill, stops move to entry and the risk is gone.
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The Week Ahead: Israel, the Fed and PCE
The next ten days decide whether Friday was a shakeout or the start of something bigger. Three dates matter.
October 27 brings the Israeli election. A surprise there feeds straight into oil. October 28 is the Fed decision. A hold is priced at about 92%, so the market will trade the statement and the December signal, not the rate. October 29 brings PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hot print after September’s CPI at 3.7% would lock in December hike expectations.
The bear case is easy to write. Weekly close under $83K, hawkish Fed, hot PCE, oil toward $120, and BTC tests $78K. The bull case is just as simple. BTC reclaims $81,800, the 50-day flips back to support, and the whole thing was a liquidation flush before a Fed hold. My longs are built for the second case, with stops in place for the first.
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Final Words
Bitcoin lost its 50-day moving average for the first time since August. Oil at $117, a Nasdaq rout and a Trump comment on Iran did the damage, and gold offered no shelter. The ETF money left too.
I closed my alts on the way down and kept the BTC long. This morning I re-entered ETH, SOL, HYPE and the S&P 500 with tight stops and close first targets. BTC still aims for $84K. If the Fed hold lands quietly next week, these trades pay. If not, the stops do their job.
The level to watch is $81,800. Above it, the dip was a flush. Below it, $78K comes into play.
FAQ
What is the Bitcoin 50-day moving average right now?
Roughly $81,800, based on daily closes. Bitcoin closed under it on October 23 for the first time since August.
Why did Bitcoin drop below $81,000?
A Nasdaq sell-off on AI spending fears, Brent crude above $117 after Hormuz tanker attacks, and Trump’s comment about another operation against Iran. ETFs pulled out over $770 million in two days.
Is a close below the 50-day moving average bearish?
It is a warning, not a verdict. The line flips from support to resistance, and bulls need to reclaim it. One close is not a trend change.
Why did gold fall with stocks?
Rising oil lifted rate-hike odds, which hurts an asset with no yield. Investors bought Treasuries instead of gold, and forced selling likely added to the drop.
What happens next week for Bitcoin?
The Israeli election on October 27, the Fed decision on October 28 and PCE inflation on October 29. A Fed hold is priced at about 92%.
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