October CPI came in at 0.4% this morning, above the 0.3% forecast. Core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected. As a result, ETH dropped to $2,031 before bouncing back to $2,080. Right now, I hold no trade at all. However, one setup on the ETH 8-hour chart has my full attention.
CPI 0.4%: The Numbers Behind the Print
Headline inflation rose 0.4% month over month, and economists expected 0.3%. Core, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. Both numbers landed one tenth too hot.
Still, the print was not all bad. Headline CPI slowed from 0.6% in September, because energy cooled sharply. Energy prices rose only 0.7%, after a 5.2% jump the month before. Shelter climbed 0.3% and made up over 30% of the total increase.
Also, this report has no yearly inflation rate. Last year’s government shutdown stopped the October 2025 price survey, so there is nothing to compare against. Therefore, traders only had the monthly numbers to react to. For context, the September CPI report beat forecasts by a tenth as well.
Why One Tenth Matters: The December Fed Hike
Fed Governor Waller spoke in London a few hours before the data. He leans toward a quarter-point hike in December. Then he added that a half-point hike should be considered if inflation came in hot. It did.
Consequently, rate odds moved fast. Before CPI, CME FedWatch gave a 50 basis point hike about a 1% chance. After CPI, that jumped to roughly 15%. A 25 basis point hike sits near 85%, and a hold is priced at zero.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.93%, and stocks sold off. Higher rates pull money out of risk assets. In addition, ETH usually feels that pressure harder than Bitcoin does. The Fed decides on December 9, so this theme will not fade soon.
How ETH and Bitcoin Reacted
Bitcoin dipped to $73.5K and trades near $74.2K as I write. Ethereum fell harder. It touched $2,031 and now sits around $2,080. Roughly $39 million in ETH longs got liquidated within one hour around the print, across three major exchanges.
For the week, ETH is down about 7%. That is clearly worse than Bitcoin. On the BTC side, I refreshed my why is bitcoin down post yesterday. Every reason in it still applies today. Besides that, ETH lagging BTC is a big part of why the Altcoin Season Index stays stuck in neutral.
ETH News: ETF Outflows vs BitMine
The flow picture has not improved. US spot ETH ETFs lost $184.5 million on November 9. That followed about $365 million in outflows the week before. In addition, a wallet linked to the Ethereum Foundation sold 1,000 ETH today. The value of stablecoins and tokenized funds on Ethereum has also dropped about 19% since April.
On the other hand, the biggest corporate buyer keeps buying. BitMine added another 9,587 ETH last week. It now holds over 6.07 million ETH, close to 5% of the supply. Chairman Tom Lee blames the weak price on impatient markets, not on weaker fundamentals.
In short, it is the same fight I described in my last ETH trade post. Institutions sell through the ETFs while one treasury company keeps stacking. So far, the sellers are winning.
The ETH Chart: A Possible Bullish Divergence on the 8H
The trend is down. ETH has printed lower highs and lower lows since October. Before the print, the daily RSI sat near 33, which is close to oversold.
Here is the setup I am watching. If ETH sweeps today’s $2,031 low one more time, the 8-hour chart could print a bullish divergence. That means price makes a lower low while the RSI makes a higher low. In other words, sellers push price down, but their momentum fades. My RSI divergence guide explains the pattern step by step.
However, a divergence is a warning sign, not a buy button. First, I want the sweep. Next, I want price to reclaim the swept low. Only then do I look for an entry. It is one of the classic bottom patterns, yet it fails often in a strong downtrend.
Key levels right now:
Support at $2,031, today’s low. Below that sits the $2,000 round number, and then $1,940.
Resistance at $2,120 to $2,145, the range ETH held before the print. After that comes $2,225 to $2,250, and then the 20-day average near $2,280.
Would you rather buy spot than trade? Then start with how to buy ETH for the first time.
My Trades: Flat, With One Eye on HYPE
Currently, I have no open trade. Yesterday I longed HYPE at $73, as shared in my HYPE Elysium launch post. Once the position was up 20%, I moved my stop to entry. Then the latest dip took me out at entry. No loss, no gain, and that is exactly what the rule is for.
For now, HYPE is the only coin I am eyeing for a new long. I trade it on Hyperliquid, and you can open a Hyperliquid account through our link. On ETH, I wait for the sweep and the divergence first. Until then, I sit on my hands.
If I enter either trade, the trading newsletter gets it before the blog.
Keep This Content Free
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Planning to trade the volatility into the Fed meeting? Then check which exchange competitions and perp DEX points programs pay you for that volume.
Final Words
A CPI 0.4% print was one tenth too hot, and the market noticed. Because of it, a half-point December hike is now a real debate. ETH took the hit harder than Bitcoin and tagged $2,031. Even so, a second sweep of that low could set up a bullish divergence on the 8-hour chart. Until that prints, I stay flat and keep watching HYPE.
FAQ
Why is ETH down today?
October CPI came in hotter than expected, so odds of a bigger Fed hike rose. As a result, ETH fell to $2,031 while about $39 million in longs got liquidated in an hour. ETF outflows added to the pressure.
What was the October 2026 CPI number?
Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month against a 0.3% forecast. Core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected.
Why is there no yearly CPI rate this month?
The 2025 government shutdown stopped price collection for October 2025. Therefore, the BLS has no base month to compare against.
Will the Fed hike rates in December?
Markets think so. After the print, CME FedWatch showed about an 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike. A 50 basis point hike sat near 15%. The decision comes on December 9.
What is a bullish divergence?
Price makes a lower low while the RSI makes a higher low. Consequently, it signals that selling momentum is fading. It is a warning sign and needs confirmation.
What are the key ETH levels after CPI?
Support sits at $2,031, then $2,000 and $1,940. Resistance sits at $2,120 to $2,145, then $2,225 to $2,250.
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