Eleven days ago, HYPE was tagging its all-time high. Stan Druckenmiller sent his first tweet ever, and it was about Hyperliquid. I covered the man and the moment in my Who Is Stan Druckenmiller post. Crypto Twitter went into full FOMO mode, and HYPE ripped from $82 to $97 in a day.
That party lasted a few hours. Later that same day, Binance got hacked for over $6 billion. A few days after that, the Democrats swept the midterms and the whole market dumped again. Now HYPE sits at $73, down 25% from that peak.
Nothing fundamental changed in those eleven days. The ICE deal still stands. The buybacks still run. Elysium launches today. So I took the long again. Entry $73, stop $68.88, final target $109. Here is the full breakdown.
Why HYPE Is Down 25% From the High
Three hits landed in eleven days, and none of them was about Hyperliquid itself.
First, the Binance hack. Over $6 billion walked out the door on October 29, and billions more left in customer withdrawals once services resumed. I wrote up the full timeline in the Binance hack post-mortem. Binance also froze HYPE withdrawals for a week and only re-enabled them on November 8, which added fresh sell pressure right as the market was weakest.
Second, the midterms. Democrats took both chambers, and traders priced in tougher regulation. The midterm dip took bitcoin from $81K to $75K in two days.
Third, the macro grind. Nasdaq fell into a correction on Thursday, Friday’s jobs report came in hot, and Sunday night brought an Nvidia scandal and failed Iran talks. Over $1 billion in longs got liquidated. I update the why is bitcoin down post after every big dip, and this morning’s version has the full story.
HYPE fell harder than bitcoin because it had run harder. A 20% pump on a tweet unwinds fast when the market turns. Santiment tracked four whale wallets that closed their entire HYPE longs within a day of the Druckenmiller spike. One of them had been accumulating since May.
Elysium Mainnet Launches Today
Kinetiq’s Layer 2 for Hyperliquid goes live today, November 9. HYPE is the gas token, every transaction fee gets paid in HYPE, and the fomo app and Pump.fun support it from day one. I explained the whole setup in What is Elysium last week, so I will keep this short.
For the trade, Elysium matters for two reasons. HYPE now has a second chain that burns it as gas. And launch days bring volume, bridges, and new tokens, which means fees, which means buybacks. The direct HyperCore hooks arrive about four weeks after launch, so the real throughput story is a December event.
One caution. CoinGecko’s own “why HYPE is moving” blurb today pairs the Elysium launch with whale transfers. A whale moved 512,000 HYPE, worth about $39 million, from staking redemption to FalconX yesterday. That bag was built at $44.8 a year ago. Launch day plus a whale unstaking is a classic sell-the-news setup, so I am not pretending today is guaranteed green.
The Fundamentals Have Not Moved
I have said it so many times this year that regular readers can skip this part. Hyperliquid is my favourite farm of 2026. Here is why the dip does not change that.
Revenue and buybacks
Ninety-nine percent of protocol revenue flows to the Assistance Fund, which buys and burns HYPE. The fund has retired over 47 million HYPE since launch. Last week alone it bought back around 21,000 HYPE in a single 24-hour window. That buyer never panics and never sleeps.
Hyperliquid Strategies
The Nasdaq-listed treasury company reported $620 million in Q3 net income, driven by $803 million in unrealised gains on its HYPE stack. It spent $785 million buying 9.1 million HYPE during the quarter and now holds 38.5 million tokens, about 16% of circulating supply. Moreover, it has applied for US futures registration.
The US route
The ICE deal with Trade.xyz is still in motion. I broke down what it means in my ICE Hyperliquid deal post. Kraken’s HIP-3 deployer and the CFTC path add a second lane. None of this has a launch date yet, which is exactly why it is not priced in.
The farming angle
If you farm Hyperliquid or HyperEVM, a 25% dip is where positions get cheaper to build. My point farming strategy guide covers how I size into venues like this. And if you have been active on HyperEVM, run the HyperEVM airdrop checker to see what is already claimable.
Macro This Week: CPI Decides the Floor
The market is nervous for a reason. Friday’s payrolls printed 165,000 jobs against 64,000 expected. That pushed the Fed away from cutting, and futures markets have been pricing a December 9 hike as the base case since mid-October.
Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, October CPI lands. A hot number confirms the hike, and risk assets sell. A soft number is the relief trade. PPI follows on Friday the 13th. Then PCE on November 25, and the Fed decision on December 9.
This is why my stop sits where it does. If CPI comes in hot and HYPE loses $69, the trade is wrong and I am out. No averaging down. Furthermore, spot ETF outflows have not reversed yet. Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week, and the two US HYPE ETFs saw $8 million leave on November 6. Until that flow turns, every bounce is a bounce in a downtrend.
The HYPE Long: Entry, Stop, Targets
My last HYPE long was the one I shared in the ICE post. Three targets filled, the stop went to entry, and the stop got hit at entry a few days later. A free trade that ended flat. That is fine. The plan worked, and the market just did not give the fourth target.
Now I am back in, lower.
Entry: $73, inside the demand zone between $72.98 and $74.52. This is the same zone that held in late October before the ICE pump.
Stop: $68.88, roughly 5.6% below entry. That sits under the next demand block and under the $70 round number. Below it, the next real support is $56.69, and I do not want to be in the trade for that.
Targets: I scale out at the supply zones on the way up.
TP1 at $78.04, the supply box that rejected price on Friday.
TP2 at $88.51, where HYPE stalled after the hack.
TP3 at $94.52, the Druckenmiller spike zone.
Final target at $109.33, a new all-time high. That is 8.8R on the full position.
After TP1 fills, the stop moves to entry. Same playbook as last time. Buy near support, sell into supply, never let a winner turn into a loser.
I trade this on Hyperliquid itself. If you want to trade it there too, you can sign up through our Hyperliquid link and save on fees.
Trades like this one go out to the trading newsletter first, with entries, stops and updates. Sign up at airdropalert.com/newsletter if you want them before the blog.
Keep This Content Free
Every HYPE dip gets me the same question: which exchange should I use? If you are starting out, these two links pay our bills and get you a bonus.
Claim the OKX sign-up rewards or the Bybit welcome bonus through our links. For every CEX competition, perp DEX points program and trading airdrop we track, the trading airdrops hub is the page to bookmark.
Final Words
Eleven days ago, everyone wanted HYPE at $97. Today, nobody wants it at $73. The product did not change. The buybacks did not change. Elysium launched on schedule. Only the price and the mood changed.
That is usually the setup I like. Still, a plan is a plan. If $69 breaks, I am out and I wait for the next one. If the supply zones give way, I scale out the same way I did last time.
Not every DEX is built the same, and the hack reminded everyone of that. Before you park size anywhere, read which DEX is safe for how Hyperliquid, Lighter, Aster and Variational handle custody.
Lock in.
FAQ
Why is HYPE down today?
HYPE is down about 5% today and 25% from its October 29 high. The drop follows the Binance hack, the midterm election dip, and a wider crypto sell-off that liquidated over $1 billion in longs on November 8. Elysium’s launch has also brought whale unstaking.
What is the Elysium launch?
Elysium is Kinetiq’s Layer 2 for Hyperliquid, live on mainnet from November 9, 2026. It uses HYPE as its gas token, settles to HyperEVM, and launched with the fomo app and Pump.fun supporting trading on day one.
Does the Elysium launch burn HYPE?
Every Elysium transaction fee is paid in HYPE. More activity on Elysium means more HYPE used as gas and more fee revenue flowing into Hyperliquid’s ecosystem, which feeds the buyback and burn.
What are the key HYPE price levels now?
Demand sits between $72.98 and $74.52, with a deeper floor at $68.88 and $56.69. Supply zones sit at $78.04, $88.51 and $94.52. A new all-time high would need a break above $98.
Is Hyperliquid Strategies still buying HYPE?
Yes. Hyperliquid Strategies bought $785 million of HYPE in Q3 2026 and holds about 16% of circulating supply. It reported $620 million in Q3 net income and has applied for US futures registration.
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