US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal

US Strikes on Iran Send Polymarket Odds Crashing for “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal by July 31?”

The Strait of Hormuz remained under renewed security strain after the United States said it launched strikes on Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the waterway. On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” was priced at 4.5% for Yes, implying traders overwhelmingly expect disruptions to persist through the deadline.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices the leading outcome as No at 95.5%, with Yes at 4.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31.
• The odds moved sharply lower for normalization as the news cycle focused on US-Iran strikes tied to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The market resolves on 2026-07-31, after a steep repricing from 42.0% Yes previously to 4.5% Yes now.

The United States and Iran exchanged attacks after the US military said Iran struck ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh doubts about a fragile ceasefire. US Central Command said US strikes on Iran began on Tuesday and were carried out in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the strait. CENTCOM said it hit more than 80 targets with precision munitions and concluded the operation about four hours after it began, while Iranian military leaders pledged a “crushing response” and said they would not accept foreign interference in management of the strait. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it targeted 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, and Iran’s army said a drone attack hit US forces at the Sheikh Isa airbase in Bahrain. Iranian media reported explosions near Sirik, Qeshm Island and areas close to Bandar Abbas, with reports of injuries at the Sirik commercial pier and a claim by the IRGC that it shot down a US MQ9 drone in southern Iran.

Polymarket Pricing: Yes 4.5% vs No 95.5% as Volume Hits $13.5M and Odds Drop 37.5 Points

Polymarket shows Yes at 4.5% versus No at 95.5% on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” with about $13,495,274 in traded volume. The swing from 42.0% Yes previously to 4.5% Yes now is a 37.5 percentage-point drop, signaling a decisive shift toward a prolonged-disruption view. With pricing this lopsided, traders are paying a sizable premium for No exposure while treating a rapid return to normal traffic as a low-probability tail outcome.

Watch whether the contract’s No side stays near the mid-90s or if liquidity starts to bid up Yes, and monitor any further large prints that push traded volume materially above $13.5 million ahead of the 2026-07-31 resolution date.

Beyond the Strait of Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching

Beyond shipping-lane risk, Polymarket traders are also concentrating in Iran-linked political and diplomatic timelines, with 82.7% on “Iran leader end of 2026?” favoring Mojtaba Khamenei as the leading outcome alongside $18,975,121 in volume. In negotiations-related markets, “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?” points to December 31 at 36.5% with $8,733,947 traded, while “Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by…?” has August 15 leading at 33.5% on $3,442,080. Another closely watched operational-risk contract, “Iran full airspace closure by…?”, shows August 31 as the top outcome at 33.0% with $1,850,878 in volume.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
• Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Leading implied prob.: 4.5%
• Volume: ~$13,495,274
• Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 4.5% / No 95.5%; No: Yes 4.5% / No 95.5%

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