Tony Kim
Jun 15, 2026 19:12
StanChart’s Geoff Kendrick identifies three signals suggesting Bitcoin’s cycle low is behind us, including ETF inflows and falling oil prices.
Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, believes Bitcoin (BTC) has likely hit its cycle low, signaling potential upside for the crypto market. In a note to clients on June 14, Kendrick outlined three indicators supporting his thesis: renewed Bitcoin ETF inflows, falling oil prices, and MicroStrategy’s ongoing BTC purchases.
Kendrick pinpointed $59,000 as the cycle low—a level Bitcoin briefly breached earlier this month. As of June 15, BTC has staged a recovery to $66,805, up 4.75% in the last 24 hours according to CoinMarketCap. This marks a 53% drawdown from the October 2025 cycle high of $126,251, but recent institutional activity suggests momentum may be shifting.
Key Signals Supporting a Bitcoin Bottom
Among Kendrick’s top indicators is the resurgence of inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On June 12, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $85.84 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT fund. This comes after a brutal 13-day outflow streak earlier in June that drained $4.4 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting shifting sentiment among institutional investors. While inflows have been intermittent, the recent uptick aligns with Kendrick’s expectations.
MicroStrategy, led by Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor, also continues adding to its BTC holdings. Saylor’s cryptic June 14 tweet, hinting at another purchase, drew significant attention, with over 500,000 views by mid-afternoon. The company had recently disclosed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, offloading 32 BTC to support its digital credit products, but remains a net buyer overall.
Additionally, Kendrick cited falling oil prices as a macroeconomic tailwind for crypto. Crude oil futures dropped for the second consecutive day on June 14, reflecting weakening inflationary pressures that could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin.
Why This Matters for Traders
If Kendrick’s call proves accurate, traders could see renewed upside in Bitcoin’s price, especially given the current consolidation between $60,000 and $70,000. The ETF inflows signal increasing institutional confidence, a critical factor for sustained price recovery. However, volatility remains a risk, as intermittent outflows indicate sentiment is still fragile.
For those watching technical levels, $59,000 now serves as a key support zone, while $70,000 could act as a near-term resistance. Breaking above $70,000 might trigger a retest of the $80,000-$85,000 range, a level Bitcoin last saw in late 2025. Conversely, failure to hold $60,000 could reopen the door to lower lows.
Looking Ahead
Standard Chartered’s bullish outlook comes amid a broader recovery in crypto markets, but traders should monitor key catalysts like ETF flow trends and macroeconomic data. With Bitcoin ETFs showing signs of stabilization and oil prices declining, the conditions for a sustainable rally may be forming. For now, Kendrick’s declaration that “winter is over” offers a confident, if cautious, note for Bitcoin enthusiasts.
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