SpaceX stock remained under pressure near a record low as traders prepared for the company’s first post-IPO earnings report and the release of 911.5 million insider shares.
Summary
- SpaceX shares fell 3.41% to $108 on July 31, their lowest close since the June IPO.
- SPCX lost about 36% in July, extending its decline from the July 1 price of $171.
- About 911.5 million insider shares are expected to become eligible for sale on Aug. 6.
- The one-hour chart places immediate support at $107.10, with resistance near $121.09.
SpaceX stock extends its post-IPO decline
SpaceX stock closed July 31 at $108, down 3.41% during the session and about 36% from its July 1 price of $171. The decline left the shares at their lowest closing level since the company’s June 12 initial public offering.
SPCX has now fallen by more than 50% from the record high of $225 reached on June 16. The sustained pullback has raised the prospect of a move below $100 as two major catalysts approach.
SpaceX is scheduled to publish its first quarterly results as a public company on Aug. 4. Two days later, restrictions covering 911.5 million insider shares are expected to expire, allowing their holders to sell the stock.
Those events could produce large price swings because investors must assess the company’s operating performance while preparing for a possible increase in available supply.
Earnings and short sellers drive the move
Wall Street expects SpaceX to report quarterly revenue of between $6.72 billion and $6.9 billion. Results above that range could ease concerns about the company’s valuation and encourage buyers to return after four consecutive weeks of losses.
A revenue miss could have the opposite effect, particularly because the stock has not established a reliable support base. Traders will also watch management’s guidance for Starlink, launch operations, and the company’s emerging data-center business.
Short positioning has added pressure. S3 Partners data showed that investors had shorted 219.3 million shares, representing about 39% of the stock available for public trading.
The large position means short sellers could continue benefiting if SPCX falls. However, unexpectedly strong earnings could force some traders to cover their positions, creating a short-term rebound.
Bernstein recently maintained an outperform rating and a $239 target after SpaceX completed its 13th Starship test flight. William Blair also reportedly increased its adjusted earnings-per-share estimate from $8.20 to $8.60, citing potential growth from the company’s data-center operations.
Share unlock threatens to increase selling
The Aug. 6 unlock represents the main downside risk because it will make 911.5 million insider shares eligible for sale. At a price of about $108, those shares would carry a market value approaching $98.4 billion, although eligibility does not mean that all holders will sell.
S3 Partners research director Sam Pierson argued that the additional supply could outweigh a positive earnings report.
“There won’t be anything announced on earnings that will overcome the volume of unlocked shares coming to market,” Pierson said.
Actual selling will depend on insider decisions, liquidity and market demand. Even so, the scale of the unlock may discourage investors from buying before Aug. 6, particularly while short interest remains elevated.
For US investors, both events fall within the same trading week. That concentration could increase volatility, widen intraday price ranges and make execution prices less predictable around the earnings release and unlock date.
SpaceX stock tests $107.10 support
The one-hour SPCX chart shows the stock trading around $108.39 after declining within a broad descending channel. Price is now testing the $107.10 Fibonacci level, which forms the most immediate support.
A confirmed break below $107.10 would remove the final marked retracement support on the chart. That could expose the psychological $100 level, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary near $97.
Trend indicators continue to favor sellers. Aroon Down stands at 92.86%, compared with Aroon Up at 7.14%, showing that recent lows are occurring much more frequently than recent highs.
The Awesome Oscillator is also negative at minus 3.98. Its red histogram bars indicate that bearish momentum remains active as SPCX trades near the bottom of its recent range.
The first upside barrier sits at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $121.09. Reclaiming that price would weaken the immediate bearish setup, but it would not reverse the broader downtrend.
Further resistance appears at $132.08, corresponding to the 61.8% retracement, followed by $139.80 at the 50% level. SPCX would need to move above the descending channel and hold those levels before the chart supports a more durable recovery.
What comes next for SPCX
The near-term direction will likely depend on whether earnings demand can absorb the potential supply created by the share unlock. A revenue beat and stronger guidance could help SPCX defend $107.10 and challenge $121.09.
Failure to hold $107.10 would increase the risk of a decline below $100. Conversely, a sustained break above $121.09 would provide the first meaningful technical evidence that selling pressure is easing.
With earnings due Aug. 4 and the unlock expected Aug. 6, traders face two separate catalysts capable of moving the stock sharply. Until SPCX reclaims nearby resistance, its descending trend and negative momentum indicators leave sellers in control.
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