Before we get into rockets, a quick update on this week’s trades. My BTC and ETH shorts from earlier in the week both hit TP1, after which I trailed my stop to break-even. Bitcoin stopped me out overnight, and ETH is still running but hovering close to entry. Either way, both banked TP1, so we chalk them up as wins. That is exactly why we stagger our take profits: the market can take back an open trade, but it can never take back a partial you already secured.
Now, on to the trade I did not take. From the moment the SpaceX IPO was announced, something about it felt familiar. Low float, staggered unlocks, and “wide distribution” by letting retail pile in through a record 30% allocation. Elon basically copied a crypto token launch playbook, and I have watched hundreds of those. Most of them end the same way: straight down.
I’ll be honest about my IPO experience, though. Outside of crypto, I have really only followed one closely, and that was Coinbase. It was hyped to the moon, pumped in the first days, then bled for over a year and lost around 90% of its value from the top. When SPCX debuted with the same energy, my plan was simple: short it. This is the follow-up to my SpaceX IPO post and my AI trade unwind post, because the story just entered its next chapter.
From $225 to $124 in One Month
SpaceX priced its record-breaking IPO at $135 per share on June 11. The debut was pure euphoria. Shares closed the first day around $161, up 19%, and ran above $225 in the days after, briefly giving the rocket maker a valuation that rivaled Amazon and Microsoft.
Then gravity kicked in. SPCX has now posted losses in nine of the last ten trading days, closing Friday at $124 after a sixth straight red session, with a fresh all-time low of $122.12. That is a 45% drawdown from the $225.64 top, in one month, on the biggest IPO in history. Almost $1 trillion in market cap has evaporated since the peak.
Anyone who chased the hype above $150 is underwater. Sound familiar, crypto people?
The Short I Missed
Time for some honesty, because I can only share winners when I also share the misses. My plan after the IPO was to short a retest higher. Alerts were set the moment we dropped below $170, waiting for a bounce back into resistance to fade.
That bounce never came. SPCX just kept sliding, day after day, without giving me the entry I wanted. On top of that, the World Cup kept me away from my desk far more than I expected. Between the trips to Monterrey and Mexico City, the Fanfest, and more than a few beers, I watched a generational short setup play out from my phone without a position.
It stings, but chasing a move that already happened is how you turn a missed trade into a losing one. The good news: the unlock schedule below suggests this story is nowhere near finished, and the market may offer a second chance.
Why SpaceX Stock Is Falling
Three forces are dragging SPCX down.
A tiny float. Only around 4–5% of total shares actually trade on the Nasdaq. Roughly 13 billion shares exist, but the IPO floated only about 555 million. A float that small combined with massive retail attention creates violent swings in both directions. It pumped the stock to $225, and now it works against holders on the way down.
Fading hype. Joining the Nasdaq-100 should have sparked forced index buying. Instead, the stock has cratered nearly 23% since inclusion, which tells you demand at these prices simply is not there. Short sellers are loading up, and options traders are doubling down on bearish bets.
A rich valuation. SpaceX still loses money. Morningstar calls the valuation aggressively lofty, warning investors may wait decades for earnings to grow into these multiples. A price like that leaves zero room for disappointment, and disappointment is exactly what came next.
Starship Flight 13: The Abort That Spooked Wall Street
Thursday was supposed to be the biggest day for SpaceX since going public. Flight 13, the first Starship launch as a public company, was set to carry 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites.
The countdown hit zero, engines ignited, and then nothing. At least four Raptor engines on the booster failed to start, triggering an automatic abort at the last second. Musk confirmed two engines need to be removed and replaced. The stock fell over 5% the next day and briefly cost Musk his trillionaire status.
The retry is now targeting Monday, July 20. Fun detail for the space nerds: that is the anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing. For traders it is simply the next binary event. A clean flight likely sparks a relief bounce. Another failure, and the chart gets ugly fast.
The SpaceX Unlock Schedule: A Token Vesting Chart in Disguise
Here is where the crypto playbook comparison stops being a joke. SpaceX did not use the standard single 180-day lockup. Instead, insiders unlock in staggered tranches, exactly like a token vesting schedule:
- Late July / early August 2026 — Q2 earnings release triggers the first wave: roughly 20% of locked shares become sellable
- August through October — time-based tranches of ~7% each at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days after listing
- Q3 earnings (Oct/Nov) — up to another ~28% unlocks
- December 8, 2026 — the remaining 180-day shares clear
- June 12, 2027 — the big one: Musk’s ~6.4 billion share block, by far the largest supply wave
One market strategist estimated the tradable float could grow roughly 900% by early September. Read that again. A 4–5% float ballooning by 9x in two months, while the price already sits below the IPO level. In crypto we call that a low float, high FDV launch heading into cliff unlocks, and we all know how those charts look.
There was even a price-based early release trigger at $175.50 that would have unlocked extra shares if the stock held 30% above IPO price. The market never let it activate. When even the bonus unlock can’t trigger, that tells you something.
SpaceX Stock Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
- $135 — the IPO price, now flipped into resistance. Bulls need to reclaim this fast.
- $150–155 — heavy bagholder supply from the post-IPO chop.
- $161 — the first-day closing price.
Support:
- $122 — Friday’s all-time low. The line in the sand.
- $100 — the big psychological level. If unlock selling hits, this is the magnet below.
Lose $122 with volume, and there is basically no trading history underneath to lean on. Price discovery in an air pocket cuts both ways.
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How to Trade SpaceX Stock With Crypto
You do not need a broker to trade this. Crypto rails give you both directions.
Hyperliquid SPCX perps. The perpetual contract on Hyperliquid lets you long or short SpaceX stock with crypto collateral, 24/7, even on weekends while the Nasdaq sleeps. This is where I set my own alerts. Interesting signal: the most profitable wallet cohort on Hyperliquid currently sits roughly 63% net short on SPCX. On-chain smart money is leaning the same way I am. New to the platform? Check our Hyperliquid review.
Tokenized shares. If you subscribed through Bybit IPO Express, you hold tokenized SPCX backed 1:1 by real equity. Our Bybit IPO Express guide covers how that works and what you can do with the position now.
Perps carry funding costs and liquidation risk. Size accordingly, especially into a binary event like Monday’s launch.
My Trade Bias
I missed the first leg down. No point sugarcoating it. The plan now is patience, because the unlock ladder hands me a calendar of future supply events to trade around.
My ideal setup: a relief rally after a successful Flight 13, pushing SPCX back into the $135–150 zone right as the first big unlock waves hit in August and September. Shorting strength into scheduled supply is a far better trade than shorting weakness into a hole. If the launch fails and we dump straight through $122 instead, I stay flat and wait for the bounce.
Either way, I am not holding size through Monday’s binary event. Stubbornness is not a strategy, and neither is FOMO-shorting a bottom.
Should You DCA Into SPCX?
Dollar cost averaging works when you believe in an asset long term and accept that timing bottoms is impossible. If you think SpaceX dominates the next decade of space and AI infrastructure, buying fixed amounts at fixed intervals removes emotion from the process. Just understand what you are averaging into: a money-losing company at a premium multiple, with 9x float growth scheduled over the next few months. DCA is a tool, not a shield. Personally, I want to see the December unlock absorbed before I would even consider building a long. Coinbase taught me that post-IPO bottoms take longer than anyone expects.
Final Words
The biggest IPO in history is trading below its offer price after one month, nearly $1 trillion in market cap is gone, and the unlock ladder has barely started. Low float, retail distribution, staggered vesting: Elon ran the crypto playbook on the Nasdaq, and so far the chart is following the shitcoin script too. Monday’s Starship launch decides the short-term direction. The unlock calendar decides the trend. I missed the first short, but the market usually gives a second chance to those who wait for it.
If you enjoyed this one, jump into the rest of our trading blogs and keep building the process.
As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus on OKX below. See you next time!
FAQ
Why is SpaceX stock falling?
A combination of a stretched valuation, a tiny 4–5% float, fading post-IPO hype, and a failed Starship launch attempt pushed SPCX below its $135 IPO price to an all-time low of $122.
What is the SpaceX stock IPO price?
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, raising roughly $75 billion in the largest public offering in history.
When do SpaceX lockups expire?
Unlocks are staggered: ~20% after Q2 earnings (late July/August), ~7% tranches monthly through October, more after Q3 earnings, the rest on December 8, 2026, and Musk’s block on June 12, 2027.
When is the next Starship launch?
Flight 13 is targeting Monday, July 20, after the first attempt was aborted when several Raptor engines failed to ignite.
Can I trade SpaceX stock with crypto?
Yes. Hyperliquid offers SPCX perpetual futures you can trade with crypto collateral 24/7, and tokenized SpaceX shares were distributed through Bybit IPO Express.
WRITTEN BY
Morten ChristensenFounder, AirdropAlert
Crypto class of ’13, airdrop farmer since 2016. Avid trader and DeFi veteran. His market commentary has been featured by Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Forbes, and CNN.
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