Back from a birthday weekend. In a short since $75,960. Here’s everything you need to know.
First things first — I took the weekend off
Last weekend was my birthday, and we had a massive party. Genuinely one for the books.
I told you guys beforehand — I was closing my positions before the weekend. Not because of the market. I just didn’t want open trades while I was out celebrating. Simple as that.
No screens. Music with no trading alerts. No checking charts between drinks. Exactly how it should be sometimes.
Now we’re back. And yes — we’re in a short.
A $292 Million DeFi Exploit of KelpDAO happened during my Bday weekend!
Bitcoin price recap: what happened over the weekend?
BTC hit $78,333 on Friday, April 17. Looked like a clean breakout for a moment.
It wasn’t. That move was a short squeeze — $762 million in liquidations, mostly shorts getting wiped. The price had no real buying behind it.
Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours. Peace talks in Islamabad collapsed. The U.S. Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship. Bitcoin slid back to $74K by Sunday morning.
This is now the fourth time in two months that BTC has pushed into the $75K–$78K zone and failed to hold. That’s not a coincidence. That’s a range.
My current trade: short from $75,960
Entry: $75,960
Setup: 0.618 Fibonacci rejection
Status: Live
Key levels
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 0.65 fib (resistance) | $76,685 | Upper fib cluster |
| 0.618 fib (resistance) | $76,537 | Rejection point — entry zone |
| Entry | $75,960 | Short entry |
| Fib origin / 0 (support) | $73,684 | Base of the fib measurement |
Why I took the short
Price tapped the 0.618 Fibonacci at $76,537 and got rejected. Clean. No need to read more into it than that.
There’s also significant absorption at that level — you can see it on the chart above. Price kept churning at the fib without breaking through. That kind of activity at a key level tells you sellers are in control, at least for now.
The structure is simple: we either hold the lower high, or we don’t.
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What I’m watching
If price rips through the highs and pushes toward $80K — I’ll be at the charts. That scenario demands attention.
If it breaks below $70K and starts nuking toward $50K — same thing, I’ll be watching closely.
But right now? This price action doesn’t require me to babysit it. The setup either works or it doesn’t. There’s nothing to do but wait.
Some of the best trades are the ones where you set it up, step back, and let it play out. This is one of those.
Am I looking at longs?
Not really. Not right here, not right now.
Could a long be argued? Sure. There’s always a case. But I don’t find it particularly compelling when I have a clean short thesis in front of me.
Local trending structure is starting to show some weakness. A quick TP1 target or a break-even stop makes this worth pursuing regardless of outcome. I’ll update when something changes.
DCA strategy: why this environment suits it
BTC has been chopping between $73K and $78K for weeks. That’s actually a decent environment for a dollar-cost averaging approach.
If you’re not actively trading, systematically buying dips into strong support zones — like the $73,684 base or the 100-day MA at $74,145 — is a low-stress way to build exposure.
You’re not trying to catch the bottom. You’re buying value across a range. Each dip into support becomes an opportunity rather than a stress event.
Big picture: exchange reserves are at 7-year lows. Whales accumulated 270,000 BTC in the past 30 days. The supply picture is constructive. DCA into weakness has historically been rewarded in setups like this.
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Every week I send out live trade breakdowns, key levels, market structure analysis, and the occasional rant about geopolitics moving Bitcoin. No noise. No hype. Just the setups I’m actually trading.
Final thoughts
The market is telling a clear story right now. BTC has rejected the same zone four times. The macro backdrop — ceasefire deadline Wednesday, Fed chair nomination hearing today — is uncertain enough to keep a lid on aggressive buying.
I’m short. I’m relaxed. The setup is clean.
If you missed the birthday party — you really missed out. But you didn’t miss the trade. It’s still very much alive.
As always: manage your risk, respect the levels, and don’t overtrade choppy conditions.
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This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before trading.
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