HYPE ripped almost 9% this morning, from around $78.5 to $88 in a single hourly candle. The trigger was big. ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is taking a stake in Trade.xyz. Together, they plan a US-regulated perpetual futures market built on Hyperliquid.
I’ve been keeping you up to date on my HYPE trade for days now. Today it hit its third target, and the stop still sits at entry. Below, I break down the ICE deal, a packed week of Hyperliquid news, today’s macro data and the chart. After that, you get my exact plan for the next targets.
Why Is HYPE Up Today?
HYPE is up because NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) signed a definitive agreement with Trade.xyz. The plan is a separate, US-regulated market for 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid’s rails. In addition, ICE is making a strategic investment in Trade.xyz, although the size wasn’t disclosed.
For context, Trade.xyz runs stock, index and commodity perps on Hyperliquid through HIP-3. Its markets have done more than $650 billion in volume in a little over a year. Just this Tuesday, it added NIFTY 50 perps. If HIP-3 is new to you, my Hyperliquid vs Trade.xyz comparison explains how it differs from native Hyperliquid perps.
Here’s what the deal actually covers:
- A new US market. It gets its own clearing, KYC and anti-money-laundering checks.
- Regulatory approval first. Everything still needs a green light from the CFTC, so there’s no launch date yet.
- Offshore markets keep running. Trade.xyz’s current HIP-3 markets stay live and keep expanding.
- OKX handles distribution. ICE and OKX already run a joint venture, and Trade.xyz’s US contracts should flow through it.
One detail matters for HYPE holders. ICE buys equity in Trade.xyz, not HYPE tokens. However, every HIP-3 deployer must stake 500,000 HYPE, and stakers get fee discounts on these markets. Whether US trades will pay the same protocol fees hasn’t been made public yet.
Still, the signal is huge. The company behind the NYSE just picked Hyperliquid as the engine for its retail perps. That’s traditional finance walking onchain, and our TradFi explainer covers the basics if you want them first.
Two US Doors in One Week
Today’s news didn’t land in a vacuum. Hyperliquid has been stacking US headlines all month.
On Monday, Hyperliquid named Payward, Kraken’s parent, as its intended first CFTC-regulated HIP-3 deployer. I covered that in the Kraken HIP-3 post. Now ICE adds a second route through Trade.xyz. As a result, the US access story suddenly has real names behind it.
Earlier, on October 20, the Hyperliquid Policy Center filed a comment letter with the SEC. Among other things, it asked for clear airdrop rules, as I explained in the Hyperliquid SEC letter post.
Meanwhile, the buyback machine keeps running. Hyperliquid has now burned 49.87 million HYPE, close to 5% of its 1 billion max supply. Lifetime protocol revenue passed $1.38 billion, with about $63.5 million in the last 30 days.
Not everything is bullish, though. Monthly team unlocks of roughly 9.9 million HYPE still outpace the buybacks. On top of that, Solidus Labs flagged over $170 million in suspicious orders on Hyperliquid’s Brent crude perps. Those orders date back to March, and the report reached Bloomberg yesterday. Regulators will read that too.
Macro: Fed Hold Yesterday, PCE Day Today
Yesterday, the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote. Two members wanted a hike right away. Chair Kevin Warsh said the “monetary medicine” is working but kept December open. My full recap is in the Fed holds rates October post.
Today brings the next test at 8:30 AM ET. September’s personal income and outlays report drops alongside the first estimate of Q3 GDP.
Why are these mornings so volatile? PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and it can turn December into a done deal. Personal income and spending show how strong the consumer still is. Strong spending plus hot prices means more hikes. As a result, algos and leveraged traders all react in the same first minute, and liquidations snowball.
Here’s what the market expects:
- Personal income MoM: forecast at +0.3%
- Personal spending MoM: forecast at +0.6%
- Headline PCE YoY: consensus at 3.6%, up from 3.4% in August
- Core PCE YoY: August came in at 3.0%, and a four-month high looks likely
- Q3 GDP: Warsh himself expects growth above 3%
A hot print would push December hike odds higher and hit risk assets. On the other hand, a soft one supports Warsh’s view that the medicine works. Either way, HYPE now has its own catalyst, which can help it decouple from the macro noise. Later today the ECB decides on rates, and the Bank of Japan follows on Friday.
HYPE Technical Analysis: The Range Finally Broke
Since Monday, HYPE chopped in a tight range between $75.6 and $82. Sellers defended $81.9 again and again, as the hourly chart shows. That level capped price several times this week.
This morning, the ICE headline broke it in one candle. HYPE launched from around $78.5 and tagged $88 shortly after. Now the levels are simple:
- Support: $81.9, the old range top. Broken resistance often turns into support on the first retest.
- Mid-level: $85, where the breakout candle paused.
- Resistance: $89, then the $92 to $94 zone.
- All-time high: about $98.
Leverage looks reasonable for now. Open interest sits near $1.96 billion, with roughly $771 million in 24-hour volume. Funding is only 0.0034% per hour, so longs aren’t paying up yet. That said, one-candle news pumps often retest their breakout level. A clean hold above $81.9 keeps the trend intact. Conversely, an hourly close back inside the range would turn this into a failed breakout.
My HYPE Trade: Three Targets Hit, Stop at Entry
On Monday, I went long HYPE from $75.59, right at the range lows. I trade it on Hyperliquid itself. My first two targets filled earlier in the week. Then this morning’s spike filled the third one. The chart shows every buy and sell marker, so you can check the fills yourself.
Here’s the full plan in one place:
- Entry: $75.59
- TP1, TP2, TP3: all filled
- Stop: at entry since TP1
- Next TP: $89
- After that: $94
A good part of the profit is already banked. The rest of the position can’t lose money anymore. That’s the whole point of the strategy.
I buy near support, scale out on the way up and trail the stop to entry after the first target. My first target only closes a small piece. Its real job is removing the risk. I broke down this exact system in Part 36 on take-profit strategy.
Of course, every fill also adds volume to my Hyperliquid Season 3 farm. And if you’d rather farm the ecosystem around it, our HyperEVM airdrops list tracks the apps building on Hyperliquid.
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Final Words
ICE picking Hyperliquid’s rails for a US perps market is a big moment for HYPE. It follows Payward’s plan earlier this week, so two regulated routes are now in the works. Approval and timing are still missing, though, and that’s worth remembering before chasing.
On the chart, $81.9 is the line in the sand. Above it, my next targets sit at $89 and $94. Meanwhile, PCE and GDP set the macro mood this morning. My stop stays at entry, so whatever happens next, this trade is already a winner.
FAQ
Why is HYPE up today?
HYPE rose almost 9% after ICE, the owner of the NYSE, announced a stake in Trade.xyz. The two plan a US-regulated perpetual futures market built on Hyperliquid.
Does ICE own HYPE tokens?
No. ICE is buying equity in Trade.xyz, not HYPE. However, HIP-3 deployers like Trade.xyz must stake 500,000 HYPE.
Can Americans trade on Hyperliquid now?
Not yet. Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz’s current markets remain closed to US users. The new US market still needs CFTC approval.
When will the ICE and Trade.xyz US market launch?
There is no date yet. Trade.xyz said it will share products, eligibility and timing as approvals progress.
What are the key HYPE levels after the breakout?
Support sits at $81.9, the old range top. Resistance comes at $89, then $92 to $94, with the all-time high near $98.
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