XRP Price Discovery Has Been ‘Deliberately Distorted for Years,’ Analyst Says

The price of XRP does not reflect its current or near-term utility. That is the central claim of Versan Aljarrah, founder of Black Swan Capitalist, who told Coinpedia in an exclusive interview that layered suppression mechanisms have engineered a persistent information gap between what XRP is worth and what the public market shows.

The Suppression Framework

Aljarrah’s argument begins with the 2020 SEC lawsuit against Ripple. In his view, that case did not simply create legal uncertainty. It handed exchanges regulatory cover to restrict or algorithmically deprioritise XRP. 

What followed, he says, was years of fragmented liquidity, spoofing, wash trading on certain venues, and the deliberate use of regulatory ambiguity to keep large institutional flows off the visible tape.

“Price discovery for XRP has been deliberately distorted for years through layered suppression mechanisms,” Aljarrah said. “The 2020 SEC case gave exchanges regulatory cover to restrict or algorithmically deprioritize XRP. What followed was years of fragmented liquidity, spoofing, wash trading on certain venues, and the use of regulatory uncertainty as a tool to keep large flows off the visible tape,” he added.

The consequence, he argues, was a structural information asymmetry. Institutions could accumulate through over-the-counter and private channels while the public market saw mostly manipulated or low-conviction flow. The price visible on screens reflected that engineered environment rather than the underlying demand picture.

The Loading Phase Is Real

Aljarrah argued against the idea that XRP’s price weakness is proof nothing is happening. He acknowledged that the entire market is operating under deflationary pressure, tighter global liquidity, higher real yields, and capital rotating into cash and short-duration assets. XRP, he said, is not exempt from that macro reality.

But he said the current period is structurally different from prior consolidations. XRP has been compressing for multiple years on higher timeframes. Volatility is declining. Ranges are tightening. Volume on down moves is drying up while long-term holder supply continues to rise.

“The loading phase is real when price action aligns with on-chain and structural evidence rather than contradicting it,” he said. “Right now it largely does. This is a classic multi-year base where smart capital can accumulate without triggering obvious signals.”

What Breaks the Suppression

The expert was specific about what he believes will ultimately end the suppression framework. It is not another ETF approval or lawsuit resolution. The breaking point, in his view, is the moment verifiable, high-volume settlement activity begins routing through the XRP Ledger at a scale that cannot be hidden or fragmented by legacy infrastructure.

“Once real economic activity forces transparency, the suppression framework loses effectiveness,” he said. “The last domino is the point at which verifiable, high-volume settlement activity starts routing through the XRPL in a way that can no longer be hidden or fragmented by legacy infrastructure.”

Technical Picture and Risk

On the charts, Aljarrah described XRP as sitting in a multi-year consolidation structure on the weekly timeframe, coiling with progressively lower volatility. Structural support sits near previous cycle lows and the long-term moving average zone. Volume has dried up on declines while long-term holder accumulation continues, which he characterised as classic base-building rather than distribution.

He was careful to say that the current setup does not eliminate near-term downside risk. The market can stay range-bound or move lower for longer than most expect. Another leg down or an extended range remains a real possibility until a sustained breakout with expanding volume above recent consolidation highs occurs.

“Current prices near these levels represent attractive long-term risk/reward for patient capital,” Aljarrah said. “But that does not rule out further downside in the near term if macro liquidity tightens more. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.04 and has slipped into the red zone.

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