Bitcoin slipped to $81,380 this morning. A week ago, it traded near $86,600. So the Bitcoin 81K pullback sits about 6% below the recent high.
Meanwhile, alts took a harder hit. ETH trades near $2,500 and SOL near $111.
I’m almost flat right now. Below, I cover the macro news, the AI wallet scare, my closed trades, and the level I’m watching for a long.
Why Is Bitcoin Down to 81K?
Bitcoin is down to $81,380 because two stories landed within 24 hours. First, the Fed minutes showed most officials still want another rate hike this year. Second, an Ethereum researcher warned that AI could break wallet security sooner than expected. As a result, BTC fell about 6% from last week’s high near $86,600.
However, this is not a crash. Price gave back the jobs-day pump and a bit more. In addition, October rate hike odds keep falling. Because of that mix, I read this as a dip and not a top.
The Macro News: Fed Minutes and Jobless Claims
Two releases matter here.
On Wednesday, the Fed published the minutes of its September meeting. Every official backed the September hike. In addition, most judged another hike likely appropriate by year end. Still, the minutes gave no timing.
Then came this morning’s jobless claims.
- Initial claims: 197,000 vs 200,000 forecast
- Previous week: 199,000 after revision
- Continuing claims: 1.716 million
So layoffs stay low. Normally, that sounds great. However, a firm labor market gives a hiking Fed more room to move again. That’s the opposite signal from the weak payrolls number that lifted Solana last Friday.
Why These Days Move Crypto
Minutes and claims are scheduled events. Traders know the exact minute they drop. Therefore, many position early, often with leverage.
When the tone surprises, one side gets squeezed. Those forced orders then push price even further.
Also, Bitcoin pays no yield. So any hint of higher rates makes bonds look better by comparison. I walked through that math in the PCE inflation breakdown.
Next up is CPI on October 14. After that, the Fed decides on October 28.
Rate Hike Odds on Polymarket
Here is what traders price today.
- October hike: 16.5%
- October hold: about 84%
- December hike: 74%
For context, the October hike stood near 25% on jobs day. In late September, it was close to 70%.
In other words, the hike looks delayed, not cancelled. Still, a hold this month removes the near-term pressure.
Prediction markets are useful beyond rates, too. For example, yesterday I used them to explain why I would fade the Russia plague panic.
Here is the odd part, though. Hike odds dropped, yet Bitcoin fell anyway. So macro alone doesn’t explain today.
The AI Wallet Scare
The second story came from Ethereum researcher Justin Drake. On October 7, he told the industry to plan for “bunker mode.”
His warning is simple. AI is producing new math at record speed. As a result, he thinks it could break the signatures behind Bitcoin and Ether wallets within months.
Vitalik Buterin replied a few hours later. He agreed the risk deserves attention. However, he told people not to scramble into new wallets today. According to him, rushed migrations have cost him more than hacks ever did.
So far, nobody has shown a broken key. Therefore, I treat this as fear and not as fact. Still, fear moves price, and Bitcoin wallets use that same signature type.
I’ll cover the full story in a separate post.
My Trades: Almost Flat
This week, I ran both sides of the book.
- Shorts: BTC and SOL
- Longs: USELESS, MET, ETH and CATE
Right now, only CATE is still open. The rest is gone. Some trades hit their take profits. Others got stopped out, and I closed a few by hand.
Overall, I’m slightly down. I leaned heavier on the longs, so the drop hurt. However, the BTC and SOL shorts saved the result.
That’s the value of a hedge. Without those shorts, this would have been a red week instead of a scratch.
As for CATE, I’m holding it. The thesis is in my CATE memecoin breakdown.
The Level I’m Watching: $80K to $82K
I’m not diving in yet. Still, price is now inside my $80,000 to $82,000 range, so it has my full attention.
The higher timeframe looks bullish to me. Therefore, I think we see $90,000 before a real correction. Of course, I could be wrong.
As a swing trade, though, the idea is plausible with the right risk management. That means my stop and targets are set before I enter. I explain that process in how to set up a trade.
This is also a textbook pullback in an uptrend. If you want the method, read my buy the dip strategy guide.
Zoom out, and the bigger picture hasn’t changed. I’ve argued that the 4-year cycle bottom is already in. For now, this dip doesn’t change my view.
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Final Words
Bitcoin at $81,380 is a pullback, not a breakdown. Hawkish minutes and an AI scare did the damage. Meanwhile, October hike odds keep sliding.
I’m nearly flat, with only CATE open. So I have room to act when the chart gives me a reason.
My eyes are on $80,000 to $82,000. If the setup appears, I go long with $90,000 in mind. Until then, I wait.
FAQ
Why is Bitcoin down today?
Fed minutes showed most officials still expect another hike this year. In addition, an Ethereum researcher warned AI could threaten wallet security. Together, those stories pushed BTC to $81,380.
What did the Fed minutes say?
All officials backed the September hike. Most also judged another hike likely appropriate by year end. However, the minutes gave no timing.
What were today’s jobless claims?
Initial claims came in at 197,000 against a 200,000 forecast. Continuing claims stood at 1.716 million.
Will the Fed hike rates in October?
Probably not. Polymarket prices an October hike at 16.5% and a hold at about 84%. December, however, sits at 74% for a hike.
Is Bitcoin at 81K a buying opportunity?
I’m watching $80,000 to $82,000 for a swing long. I haven’t entered yet, and I could be wrong. Therefore, I only take the trade with a stop in place.
What is the AI “bunker mode” warning?
Researcher Justin Drake urged holders to move funds to fresh addresses over time. Vitalik Buterin agreed the risk is real but warned against rushing.
Credit: Source link
