Glassnode’s Market Compass Shows Crypto Gains Amid Dollar Weakness

Glassnode’s latest Market Compass report highlights a notable uptick in its Composite score to 25/100, categorized as ‘Defensive’. This marks an improvement from 22 last month and 21 the week prior, reflecting modest but consistent gains in market conditions. The key driver? A softening U.S. dollar, which has helped stabilize risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Macro conditions, the largest weight in the Composite, climbed from 13 to 23 over the past month, as the dollar continued to struggle below its 200-day moving average. This aligns with broader trends reported earlier this year: the dollar gained 1.1% in Q1 2026 after a steep 7.4% depreciation in 2025 (New York Fed, May 2026). While the dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, diversification into assets like gold and cryptocurrencies is a growing theme.

Spot Market Holds Firm

Bitcoin’s price hovers near $63,900, a healthy premium over the average cost basis of $52,800. Realized profit-and-loss remains slightly positive at 1.05, signaling stability, while option-implied volatility has ticked up to 36 after hitting a two-year low. These metrics suggest traders are navigating a period of calm valuations with limited downside pressure.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see robust inflows, averaging $95 million in net daily creations over the past week. This passive demand has helped sustain market sentiment, with 43% of recent buyers now in profit despite a slight dip in spot prices. The report notes that a further decline in the dollar’s value could push the Composite closer to a ‘Balanced’ reading, while a reversal or weakening ETF flows could shift it back toward ‘Risk-Off.’

New Cycle Position Board Debuts

Glassnode introduced a new feature in this edition: the Cycle Position Board. This tool aggregates data from 45 Bitcoin metrics, scoring each from 0 to 100 based on its position within a four-year historical range. The entire board condenses into a composite median score, offering a concise view of where Bitcoin stands in its cycle.

Currently, the board sits in the cooler half of its range, indicating a market that is “washed out” but steadily building a base. Historically, similar conditions have proven favorable for accumulation, while overheated phases tend to signal cycle peaks.

What’s Next?

As macro forces like the dollar’s trajectory continue to influence crypto markets, traders should watch for key signals. The Composite’s next move will likely hinge on whether the dollar breaks below its 200-day average or rebounds, and whether ETF flows sustain their upward momentum. Additionally, the Cycle Position Board offers a valuable lens for assessing Bitcoin’s long-term positioning.

For real-time updates, the full Market Compass dashboard is available to Glassnode Advanced and Professional members. With passive inflows supporting current market stability, traders may find opportunities in this “Defensive” phase, particularly if macro tailwinds persist.

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