I’ll be straight with you. This might be my worst trading week of the year.
Bitcoin dropped 28% in just 3–4 days — from $76K down to $61.5K. Third-worst drawdown since 2022. That stat alone tells you something.
And here’s the honest version of my week: I actually called this move. Back at the $78–82K range I was punting shorts, expecting a retest of the $60K area. The direction was right. But none of those shorts were held to the bottom — not even close.
Why? Because I expected the move to be messy. I thought we’d chop up and down, form a slow downtrend, and I’d trade the swings in between. Instead it went almost straight down with no real bounces. No consolidation, no relief rallies to re-enter. Just a wall of red candles.
So even though I called the top correctly, I was completely wrong in how I managed the trades. That’s part of it. Being right about direction and being right about execution are two different skills — and this week exposed the gap between mine.
Then on the way down I switched to longs, trying to catch a bounce at every support level. $74K, $72K, $70K, $68K, $63K — Order flow setups that looked clean were just run over. Sometimes Bitcoin falls through every level without asking permission.
I longed at $61.9K last night and moved my stop to break even — because honestly, nothing is screaming bounce right now. Protecting the trade while the dust settles
Today let’s talk about why we got here, what happened to alts, and how I’m thinking about what comes next.
Why Did Bitcoin Crash? The Macro Picture
This wasn’t one event. It was a perfect storm of overlapping catalysts that fed each other.
The Strategy Problem
This is the biggest macro story of the week, and it goes much deeper than Saylor selling 32 coins.
Strategy’s unrealized loss on its Bitcoin position is now sitting near $10.8 billion — putting them down roughly 17% on their position after six years of buying. That’s a number that changes the narrative around the whole company.
Strategy’s average cost basis is $75,702 per coin. With Bitcoin crashing below $62K, the position is deep underwater — and MSTR stock has shed nearly 70% over the past year, with market cap falling from above $160 billion to roughly $48 billion.
But here’s the part that really spooked the market: the STRC depeg. STRC is Strategy’s preferred stock — the instrument Saylor has been using to raise billions to buy more Bitcoin. Analyst Ran Neuner argued publicly that STRC’s failure to maintain its $100 peg this month would limit MicroStrategy’s capital raising ability, reducing Bitcoin purchases and directly contributing to the current dump. If Saylor can’t raise capital through STRC, the entire flywheel — sell preferred stock, buy Bitcoin, repeat — starts to break down. That’s existential for the bull thesis that relied on Strategy as a continuous buyer.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas put it bluntly: Bitcoin has become too dependent on the ETF and MSTR narrative. Both should be “icing on the cake, not the whole cake.” He’s right. And the market is now pricing in that lesson the hard way.
Mt. Gox: The Ghost Strikes Again
Mt. Gox moved funds to a fresh wallet, and while the coins didn’t actually hit any exchange, automated trading systems saw the on-chain movement, classified it as bearish, and triggered sell orders. Within hours, the headline alone moved BTC several percent. This is how crypto markets work in 2026 — algorithms react to data before humans can interpret it.
The creditor repayment deadline sits at October 31, 2026. Around 80,000 creditors who bought Bitcoin under $1,000 in 2014 are watching those wallets. Every single movement spooks the market. Rational or not, that’s the reality.
The Liquidation Cascade
Total crypto liquidations surged past $1.1 billion as Bitcoin tumbled toward $63,000 on June 3. When BTC breaks key support, leveraged longs get wiped, which pushes price lower, which wipes more longs. The cascade becomes self-reinforcing until there’s no more leverage left to liquidate. That’s the mechanical engine behind a move like this.
Macro Backdrop
The crypto market is showing an 84% correlation with the Dow Jones Industrial Average right now, indicating a shared macro-driven selloff. The Fed is not cutting. Inflation is sticky. Geopolitical tension — particularly the ongoing US-Iran situation — is keeping risk appetite suppressed across all markets, not just crypto.
Bitcoin mining rig daily net profits have turned negative, approaching shutdown levels for major miners like Antminer, Whatsminer, and Avalon. That implies a washout of small-scale miners and signals that price has touched Bitcoin’s production cost — historically a zone that attracts longer-term accumulation.
Study our latest guide on how to read charts to increase you edge.
The Altcoin Bloodbath: Arthur Hayes and the Whale Dump
Alts that looked strong just last week got absolutely destroyed overnight.
ZEC down 14%. HYPE down 10%. NEAR down 16%. ETH hit $1,730. SOL dropped to $67. The coins that had been holding up the best became the ones that fell hardest when the big sellers showed up.
Here’s what happened. Arthur Hayes — one of the most watched whales in crypto — started selling HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR positions through Flowdesk via a slow TWAP. At almost the exact same time, an entity linked to Andrew Kang (Rewkang) sold 120,000 HYPE — around $8 million — in under 30 minutes, pushing HYPE price down more than 5% in that window alone. Rewkang finished selling his full stack.
Hayes is still selling. As of the last update, he had 165,000 HYPE remaining going through Flowdesk’s TWAP execution.
Then Andreas Brekken, founder of SideShift, appeared and started selling 50,000 HYPE. Hyperliquid Strategies was also simultaneously TWAPping more than $10 million through Anchorage.
Four separate large sellers hitting the same asset within the same window. The retail panic and liquidations that followed did the rest. This is what a coordinated (or coincidental) whale exit looks like in a thin, fear-driven market.
The Technical Picture
Several indicators — including RSI, mining rig shutdown prices, and market sentiment — suggest Bitcoin is now in deeply oversold territory. While a further breakdown cannot be ruled out, a retest of $60,000 remains a key level to watch.
Key levels to know right now:
- $61.5–$61.9K — where price is trading now, current support zone
- $60,000 — the psychological line in the sand. A clean break below here likely accelerates the move
- $62,170 — near-term resistance now that this level has broken
- $67–$69K — the zone BTC needs to reclaim to shift short-term sentiment
RSI on the daily is approaching levels not seen since the February 2026 lows. Oversold doesn’t mean bounce — but it does mean the easy short is largely over.
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The Mental Side of Trading
Let me be real about something.
I thrive on winning. A good trade lights me up and motivates me to keep going. That’s probably true for most traders. But losing is part of the game. Without it, there wouldn’t be a market to trade.
That said, I’m going back to the lab. Every entry I took this week, every stop I placed, every level I called — I’m going to look at all of it and ask whether I could have done something differently. Could I have read the order flow better? Were the levels I picked actually significant or was I just hoping? This week will generate more lessons than a hundred winning weeks could.
The key now is not chasing losses. The market doesn’t know about my PnL. It doesn’t owe me a recovery trade. All I can do is start today fresh — find a new setup and trade it with proper risk management.
One concrete adjustment I’m making right now: sizing down. A few smaller wins to rebuild confidence and rhythm before sizing back up. This isn’t weakness — it’s the smartest move I can make right now. It’s protecting capital and my mental game.
The biggest risk in a downswing isn’t the next bad trade. It’s compounding your mistakes by forcing trades to get back what you lost. That’s how accounts blow up. The downswing ends when you stop fighting it and start respecting it.
Sometimes the Simplest Strategy Wins
Not everyone wants to trade this volatility. Honestly? After the week I’ve had, I get it.
If active trading isn’t your thing, DCA is your friend right now. Bitcoin at $61.5K — with Strategy bleeding, whales dumping, and fear at extreme levels — is historically the kind of zone that long-term accumulators look back on and smile. You don’t need to catch the exact bottom. Walk away from the order flows and set stop losses. You just buy a fixed amount on a regular schedule and let time do the work.
Start today, keep going through the summer, and by the time 2027 rolls around your average entry could look very smart. No stress, no sleepless nights, no blown stops. Just a plan and patience.
If that sounds more appealing than five failed longs in a week — trust me, right now it kind of does.
Final Words
Bitcoin crashing to $61.5K in a matter of days is brutal. The combination of Strategy’s $10.8 billion unrealized loss and STRC depeg fears, Mt. Gox movements, $1.1 billion in liquidations, and coordinated whale exits in altcoins created a perfect storm that overwhelmed every support level on the way down.
Does this mean the bull market is over? Not necessarily. Miner shutdowns near production cost, extreme oversold RSI, and Fear & Greed near historical lows have historically marked accumulation zones rather than the end of cycles. But in the short term, until BTC can reclaim $67–$69K, caution is the right posture.
For traders: protect your capital. The holders: zoom out. And for beginners: this is what crypto feels like sometimes — and it’s also exactly when the long-term opportunity tends to build.
If you enjoyed this blog, you may want to check our other trading blogs.
See you next time. And as always — don’t forget to claim your bonus below.
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