Traders cashed out nearly $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin in a single day last week — a sign that the recent recovery may be running out of steam.
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On May 4, investors sold 14,600 Bitcoin, pushing daily realized profits to their highest point since early December.
According to CryptoQuant, that kind of selling spike during a bear market rally has historically marked a local price top.
A Rally Under Pressure
Bitcoin climbed roughly 37% over six weeks, rising from $66,000 in early April to briefly touch $82,380. That level lines up with the cryptocurrency’s 200-day moving average — a technical marker that proved to be a wall during the 2022 bear market.
Back then, Bitcoin hit that same average in March before sliding further into a prolonged decline. CryptoQuant’s latest research draws a direct line between that episode and today’s setup.
Unrealized profits among traders also spiked during the recent run-up. On May 5, profit margins reached over 17%, the highest reading since June of last year.
Bitcoin traders’ unrealized profit margins hit 17.7%, the highest since June 2025.
The last time margins reached these levels while Bitcoin tested the 200-day MA was March 2022, just before the downtrend resumed. pic.twitter.com/Zgfe9jFTiv
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 13, 2026
Data shows that figure mirrors conditions last seen in March 2022 — right before Bitcoin resumed its fall.
The combination of profit-taking and a historically significant resistance level has prompted CryptoQuant to flag the possibility of a trend reversal.
Inflation Data Adds To The Pressure
Outside the crypto market, broader economic signals are adding to the uncertainty. The US Labor Department reported that producer prices rose 1.4% in April, the steepest increase in four years.
Bitcoin has grown more sensitive to US economic data as Wall Street adoption has expanded, and the inflation report pushed the price down 2.3% in 24 hours to around $79,250.
If selling pressure does push Bitcoin lower, CryptoQuant puts the next major support around $70,000. That level reflects the average price at which all Bitcoin was last transacted and has historically shifted from resistance to support during bear markets.
At that point, short-term traders would have little unrealized profit left, removing much of the incentive to sell.
Bulls Still See A Different Path
Not everyone reads the charts the same way. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin could make a fast move to $90,000 if the US Senate advances the CLARITY Act, a long-awaited piece of crypto legislation.
This can literally go both ways.
If this continues to grind upwards, with the upcoming CLARITY Act tomorrow, I would assume we might see a fast move to $90K in a matter of days for #Bitcoin.
The build-up is sincerely strong. pic.twitter.com/rYkwa7lWYF
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 13, 2026
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A return to Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 is seen as almost inevitable, according to Maelstrom investment chief Arthur Hayes
Hayes pointed to money printing pressures linked to the Iran conflict and the escalating US-China race in artificial intelligence as key catalysts.
Both views reflect the sharp divide among market watchers as Bitcoin sits at a critical juncture.
Featured image from Mint, chart from TradingView
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