Bitcoin is trading back around $62K today, up roughly 4% in 24 hours after tagging $57,700 on July 1 — its lowest print in almost two years. The bounce comes right after the ugliest monthly candle since June 2022, so the obvious question is whether this is the first real recovery of the selloff or just another dead cat finding a trampoline.
Let’s look at what’s actually driving the move, where the levels are, and how we’re positioned.
How We Got Here
June was brutal. Bitcoin closed the month down about 20%, its worst monthly performance in four years, and spot Bitcoin ETFs bled roughly $4.5 billion in net outflows — the worst month on record for the products. The selling climaxed on July 1 with a flush toward $57,700 before buyers finally stepped in.
That flush matters. Deep cycle bottoms have historically formed around the 200-week moving average, which currently sits in the $59K–$62K zone. Wednesday’s low dipped below it, and today’s pump has price fighting to reclaim it. How Bitcoin closes relative to that line over the coming weeks will tell us a lot about whether June was exhaustion selling or the start of something worse.
Related: Gold is falling too, here is why
The Macro Turned Friendly (For Once)
A few genuinely positive catalysts lined up this week:
The Fed blinked dovish. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have eased, and the market immediately repriced. Bitcoin jumped 4% on the comments alone. With the next FOMC meeting set for July 28–29, a softer Fed tone is exactly the backdrop risk assets have been begging for.
Jobs data came in weak — and that’s bullish here. June payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, a sharp slowdown that takes rate-hike fears off the table for the summer. Bad news for the labor market is, in this regime, good news for Bitcoin.
Wall Street is calling the bottom zone. Cantor Fitzgerald — a primary dealer sitting at the center of the US Treasury market — said Bitcoin is in the final stages of its bear market and possibly only a few months from the bottom of this pullback. When the plumbing of the US debt market starts timing crypto cycles, institutions are paying attention.
Bitcoin shrugged off equity weakness. South Korea’s Kospi dropped almost 8% on renewed AI chip worries, and Bitcoin barely flinched. Decoupling from the AI trade unwind, even for a day, is a small but notable show of strength.
July seasonality is on our side. Historically, July averages a gain of around 7–8% for Bitcoin, and the month has been green even in deep bear years — including double-digit rallies in 2018 and 2022. In midterm election years, the average July return climbs above 10%.
One more structural note: liquidation heatmaps show a large cluster of short liquidations parked around $67,600. Liquidity like that tends to act as a magnet if the bounce gets legs.
To be fair, not everyone is bullish. Citi recently cut its 12-month target to $82K with a bear case near $53K, citing weak ETF demand and slow progress on US crypto legislation. The bounce needs follow-through in ETF flows to become a trend.
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Key TA Levels to Watch
Support:
- $59K — Point of Control. The highest-volume node of this entire range. If price rotates back down, this is the level where buyers should show up.
- $58.1K–$57.7K — the July 1 low. Lose this and the bounce thesis is dead, with $55K as the next stop.
- $53K–$55K — the bear case zone. Where things get genuinely ugly.
Resistance:
- $62.1K — current resistance. Price is knocking on it right now. This also overlaps with the 200-week moving average region, making it the most important short-term battleground on the chart.
- $65.6K — the 50-month EMA. Reclaiming this would flip the medium-term picture from bearish to neutral.
- $67.6K — the liquidation magnet. The big short-liquidation cluster. A squeeze through $65.6K probably doesn’t stop until here.
Simple framework: above $62K and holding, longs have the ball. Rejected here with a lower high, the bounce was a gift to sellers.
Check out our recent guide on the best “bottom” signals.
My Trade
My ETH short from last week closed out this morning for 5.5R. Here’s how it played out: TP1 and TP2 both hit on the way down, TP3 missed by a lousy $4, and after that my stop loss — long since moved into profit — got tagged on this morning’s pump. The position was up 10R at its peak, so watching part of that evaporate isn’t fun, but this is exactly what risk management looks like. Partial profits banked at targets, stop trailed into the green, zero risk left on the table. Missing TP3 by four dollars is the market’s sense of humor, not a mistake. On to the next setup.
Currently I’m flat. Two spots have my attention:
- Long around $59K (POC). If we rotate back down into the Point of Control and I see strength on the low timeframes — absorption, higher lows, aggressive buyers stepping in — I’m interested in a long there.
- Scalp short at $62.1K. Price is pressing into current resistance as I write this. If we get a clean rejection, I might take a short here, but strictly as a scalp. Shorting the first bounce after a 20% down month is not a position I want to marry.
No trade is also a trade. With a 5.5R winner freshly banked, there’s zero pressure to force the next entry — the setup comes to me, or it doesn’t happen.
Final Words
Bitcoin back at $62K after the worst month in four years is exactly the kind of setup that splits the market in two. The macro tailwinds are real — a dovish Fed, weak jobs data, Wall Street bottom calls, and friendly July seasonality. At the same time, price is still below the 200-week moving average, ETF outflows haven’t reversed, and one green day doesn’t repair a broken trend.
The levels make it simple. Hold $59K and reclaim $62K, and the path toward $65.6K and the $67.6K liquidation cluster opens up. Fail here, and we’re likely retesting the lows before this is over. Trade the levels, not the narrative.
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FAQ
Why did Bitcoin pump back to $62K? Dovish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on easing inflation risks, combined with a weak June jobs report (only 57,000 jobs added), reduced rate-hike expectations and sparked a broad risk-asset rally. Bitcoin rose about 4% on the news.
Is the Bitcoin bear market over? Nobody knows for certain. Cantor Fitzgerald believes Bitcoin is in the final stages of its bear market, while Citi maintains a bear case near $53K. Price remains below the 200-week moving average, so the trend hasn’t structurally flipped yet.
What are the key Bitcoin levels to watch right now? Support sits at $59K (Point of Control) and the $57.7K July low. Resistance is at $62.1K, then $65.6K (50-month EMA), with a large short-liquidation cluster around $67.6K acting as a potential magnet.
Is July historically a good month for Bitcoin? Yes. July has averaged gains of roughly 7–8%, and it has been positive even in bear market years like 2018 and 2022. In midterm election years, the average July return exceeds 10%.
When is the next Fed meeting? The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28–29, 2026. A dovish outcome would likely support Bitcoin and other risk assets, while a hawkish surprise could pressure the bounce.
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