Bitcoin trades at $83,000 this morning. Over the weekend, crypto Twitter was calling for a Black Monday. Instead, Monday opened green, and Tuesday added to it.
My longs on BTC, HYPE, ETH and DOGE are all up. A few hit targets, and every stop now sits at entry. Below, I cover why the market pumped, the quiet macro week ahead, and why I don’t run an alpha group.
Why Is Bitcoin Up to 83K?
Bitcoin is up to $83,000 because the Black Monday panic fizzled. Price dipped to $80,500 on Sunday after a Saturday flash crash. Then US futures opened green, oil fell on Iran deal hopes, and risk assets bounced. As a result, BTC reclaimed $83,000 for the first time since last week’s hot CPI print.
The weekend setup was dramatic. Monday marked 39 years since the 1987 crash, and a flash crash on Saturday evening fed the doom posts. Yet when markets opened, nothing broke. Stocks rebounded after their worst week since June, and crypto followed.
The Macro Picture: A Quiet Week After a Loud One
Last week was the loud one. CPI printed 3.7% against 3.6% expected on October 14. Then PPI came in at 6.3% a day later. Together, those prints dragged Bitcoin from above $84,000 to just under $80,000 in about 24 hours. I covered the ETH side of that in my PPI 6.3% breakdown.
This week is different. There is no CPI, no payrolls and no Fed decision. Moreover, the Fed entered its blackout period on October 17, so no official can speak until the October 27-28 meeting.
Here is what still matters:
- Tuesday: Netflix earnings after the close
- Wednesday: Meta and Tesla earnings after the close
- Thursday: jobless claims, forecast 200,000
- Friday: flash PMIs and Michigan inflation expectations, last read at 4.7%
So the data risk this week comes from earnings, not from the Fed. Big tech reports into a market that just had its worst week since June. That cuts both ways.
Rate hike odds have cooled, too. An October hike sits near 16%, while December holds near 89%. In other words, the market expects a pause next week and a hike before year end.
Why the Market Pumped Anyway
Three things lined up at once.
First, oil dropped on Monday after fresh Iran deal headlines. Lower oil eases the inflation story, which eases pressure on yields. Second, China’s GDP beat expectations overnight. Third, stock futures bounced, and crypto trades like a high beta version of the Nasdaq right now.
However, one caution flag remains. US Bitcoin ETFs saw $228.6 million in outflows last week, after $681 million the week before. This rally is running on sentiment and short covering, not on fresh ETF demand. Therefore, I treat $83,000 as a level to hold, not as proof of a new leg up.
My Trades: Targets Hit, Stops at Entry
I went long BTC, HYPE, ETH and DOGE from the range lows. All four are green today. A few hit their first targets, and I moved every stop to breakeven.
That last part matters more than the entries. With earnings landing tonight and tomorrow, I hold four free trades. If Netflix or Meta tanks the market, I get stopped at entry and lose nothing. If the bounce continues, the runners keep working.
The DOGE long is the one I wrote up at the range low. You can read the full plan in my Dogecoin 0.08 long post.
Then there is PEPE. Yesterday I posted the PEPE triangle long with a limit order below the market. Price never came down to fill it. Instead, PEPE ripped 9% today without me. That stings a bit, but a missed trade costs nothing. A chased trade often does.
Zcash is the other one on my list. After the stop-out on the weekend flush, I’m waiting for the setup from my ZEC $1,000 post to reset.
Why I Don’t Run an Alpha Group
A few people in my DMs have been following these trades. Some of them asked why I don’t open a paid alpha group.
Let me be clear. I have no plans for that, and I’m not keen on the idea at all.
Trading is a skill. Blindly copying calls without understanding the fundamentals will most likely be negative EV. Even if you follow a winning trader, the profit sits in the nuances. When to enter. When to exit. When to move the stop. When to change the original plan.
Now imagine you are a few percent off on entry and an hour late on a plan change. Suddenly, the winning strategy you copied is a losing one for you. The edge was never in the call. It was in the execution.
That is why we write guides. Almost 40 parts of Trading Fundamentals sit on this site. That is also why I write these trading blogs, with the macro environment and the TA laid out. The goal is that you build your own trade, with your own rules, and your own risk management.
Educating is the point. Maybe 200 to 300 people read these posts. If two of you become profitable, self-sustaining traders who build and execute their own plans, I would be happy.
Copy Trading Is a Different Question
Automated copy trading is something I may consider. In that setup, the system opens and closes with me, so the timing problem disappears. Nobody is an hour late on a stop move.
Still, I’m not sold. Running other people’s funds is a responsibility I’m not sure I want. For now, I’ll keep playing with the idea and keep writing the posts.
What I’m Watching Next
Bitcoin needs to hold $83,000 through earnings week. Above that, the range high near $87,000 is the next target. Below $80,000, the Black Monday crowd gets another shot.
The bigger picture has not changed. I still think the 4-year cycle bottom is in. Dips like last week’s are for buying, with stops in place.
Keep This Content Free
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Final Words
Bitcoin at $83,000 is a relief bounce, not a breakout. The panic faded, oil fell, and stocks recovered. Meanwhile, ETF flows stayed negative, so I keep my expectations in check.
My longs are green and risk free. PEPE got away. That is a normal week.
No alpha group for now. Learn the skill, build your plan, and execute it yourself. Want my trade write-ups before they hit the blog? Then join the free AirdropAlert newsletter.
FAQ
Why is Bitcoin up today?
The weekend Black Monday panic fizzled. Oil fell on Iran deal hopes, stocks rebounded, and Bitcoin reclaimed $83,000.
What macro events are coming this week?
No CPI, no payrolls and no Fed decision. Netflix reports Tuesday, Meta and Tesla on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday, and flash PMIs on Friday.
When is the next Fed meeting?
October 27-28. The Fed is in its blackout period until then, so no officials will speak this week.
Will the Fed hike in October?
Markets price an October hike near 16% and a December hike near 89%. So a pause next week is the base case.
Why don’t you run an alpha group?
Because copying calls without understanding them is negative EV. The profit lives in the execution, not the call. I would rather teach the skill.
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