Solana trades near $122 this morning. Bitcoin, meanwhile, pushed to $87,000. Once again, a single data release moved the whole board.
The September jobs report landed at 8:30 ET and missed badly. Because of that, traders dumped their rate hike bets and bought risk.
So far, I’m on the wrong side of it. My BTC short got stopped overnight, and my SOL short sits slightly in the red. Below, I cover the numbers, the jobs report Solana reaction, and the levels I’m watching.
Why Is Solana Up After the Jobs Report?
Solana is up because the September jobs report came in far weaker than expected. The US added only 29,000 jobs against a forecast of 84,000. As a result, the odds of an October Fed rate hike fell to around 20%, and risk assets rallied. SOL gained roughly 3.5% to trade near $122.
Bitcoin led the move, however. BTC climbed about 3% and briefly crossed $87,000. SOL followed, but it didn’t keep pace.
That gap matters for my trade. More on it below.
The September Jobs Numbers
Here is the release, next to what the market expected.
- Nonfarm payrolls: 29,000 vs 84,000 forecast
- Unemployment rate: 4.2% vs 4.1% forecast
- Average hourly earnings, month over month: 0.1%
- Average hourly earnings, year over year: 3.0%, the slowest since 2021
- Labor force participation: 61.8%, a four-month high
Revisions made it worse. August dropped from 162,000 to 133,000. July, meanwhile, flipped from a small gain to a loss of 10,000 jobs. In total, the two months lost 60,000 jobs on paper.
There is one bright spot, though. Unemployment rose partly because more people started looking for work. That’s a healthier reason than mass layoffs.
Still, the headline is clear. Hiring slowed sharply, and wages cooled with it.
Why Bad Jobs Data Is Good for Crypto Right Now
Normally, weak hiring sounds like bad news. So why did markets pump?
Because the Fed is hiking. It raised rates on September 16, and markets feared a second hike this month. A strong labor market would give the Fed cover to do it. A weak one, in contrast, takes that excuse away.
The reaction showed up everywhere at once.
- October hike odds fell to about 18% on CME FedWatch. A week ago, they stood near 70%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 5.18%, after touching its highest level since 2002 this week.
- The Nasdaq 100 hit a record high.
Lower yields are the key part. Crypto pays no yield, so every drop in bond rates makes it more attractive by comparison. In addition, slower wage growth means less inflation pressure down the road.
Wednesday’s soft PCE inflation print already started this shift. Today’s report, therefore, finished the job.
One warning, though. Bad news only stays good news while the economy holds up. If hiring keeps falling, the story turns from “no hike” to “recession.” Besides, markets still price a December hike at over 75%.
Is a Fed Hold Already Priced In?
Mostly, yes. And that matters for what comes next.
Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in October?” market tells the story. Earlier this week, traders gave a 25 bps hike odds of around 65%. Today, “no change” sits at 75%, and the hike is down to 25%. Over $22 million has traded on that market.
The jobs report didn’t do that alone, however. A couple of Fed committee members came out dovish yesterday. As a result, the odds had already flipped before the print. This morning’s data simply confirmed the move.
So here is my read. A hold on October 28 is now mostly priced in. That means the easy fuel from this story has been spent. For price to keep climbing, the market needs a new reason.
That’s another argument for a pullback. Good news that’s already in the price rarely pumps twice.
Why Jobs Days Are So Volatile
The jobs report drops on the first Friday of every month. It’s one headline number at one exact minute. Because of that, traders position days ahead, often with leverage.
That leverage is the fuel. When the number surprises, one side gets liquidated. Those forced orders then push price even further.
Today, the move started before the print. A wave of short liquidations lifted Bitcoin above $86,000 hours early. Easing yields added to it. As a result, the report itself only confirmed what price already showed.
That’s also how I lost my BTC short. The squeeze came overnight, well before the data.
How Bitcoin Reacted
Bitcoin sat near $84,800 on Thursday night. By early morning, it traded above $86,000. After the report, it briefly crossed $87,000.
My short from $85,400 got stopped during that push. It happens. The stop did its job, and that’s what stops are for.
In the PCE post, I wrote that BTC likely wanted to sweep $87,000 to $88,000 first. That sweep is now underway. The $87,500 area also capped the previous rally, so the reaction there matters.
A sharp rejection would put a short back on my radar. A clean hold, on the other hand, means the trend has more room. I’m eyeing the $88,000-$89,000 region for a potential new short.
How Solana Reacted to the Jobs Report
SOL traded around $118 before the move. Now it sits near $122. That’s a solid bounce of roughly 3.5%.
Context matters here, though. Solana printed a cycle high near $125 in late September. Today’s pump hasn’t taken that level back.
Compare that to Bitcoin. BTC is testing its recent highs right now. SOL, however, is still $3 below its own. So far, that looks like a lower high.
In other words, Solana shows relative weakness. When the leader pushes and an alt can’t follow, the alt often falls harder once the leader pauses. That’s why my SOL short is still open while the BTC one is gone.
SOL Levels: Resistance, Support and the Retrace
Here are the levels on my chart.
Resistance
- $125: the late September high. Sellers defended it once already.
- $130 to $136: the next zone if $125 breaks and holds.
Support
- $120: the old ceiling that broke on the third attempt. Price lost it this week and reclaimed it today. It’s a classic flip from the support and resistance guide.
- $111: the area around the 20-day average. In strong trends, first pullbacks often bounce there.
- $100: the big round number. It also sits near the 50% retrace of the run from the $70s.
- Low $90s: roughly the 62% retrace, the deep end of a healthy pullback.
Those retrace numbers come from the Fibonacci tool. SOL ran from the $70s to $125 with barely a pause. After a move like that, a retrace of 38% to 62% is normal. That puts the zone between roughly $105 and the low $90s.
So what would prove the bears wrong? A break above $125 is the first warning. After that, the $130 to $136 zone comes into play. My stop sits inside that zone.
My SOL Short: Entry, Target and Plan
I’m short SOL from $119. Right now, the trade is slightly red. Still, price is not close to my stop.
Here is the full plan.
- Entry: $119
- Stop loss: $132
- TP1: around $114
- Final target: $85
The stop sits above the $125 high on purpose. A wick through that level shouldn’t knock me out. A move to $132, however, means the structure turned bullish, and I’m wrong.
TP1 comes first, around $114. There, I take a small piece off and move my stop to break-even. From that point on, the trade is risk-free.
After that, I let it run toward $85. That’s an ambitious number. It sits below the standard retrace zone, so SOL would need a real flush.
Therefore, both the stop and the target can change. If the chart builds a more bullish structure, I’ll adjust. The chart decides, not my opinion.
Short the Pump, Buy the Dip
Shorting SOL doesn’t make me bearish on Solana. In fact, I hold a spot bag from my Solana DCA plan. Those buys continue on schedule.
Trades and bags are separate buckets. The short is a bet on a pullback. The bag, in contrast, is a bet on the next few years.
Both can win at once. A drop toward $100 or the low $90s would pay the short. At the same time, it would create the exact setup from my buy the dip strategy guide.
So that retrace zone does double duty. It’s where I take profit on the short. It’s also where dip buyers should have their orders waiting. New to SOL? Then start with our guide on how to buy Solana for the first time.
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Final Words
A weak jobs report gave risk assets another push. Hike odds collapsed, yields fell, and Bitcoin swept $87,000.
Solana joined the party, but it didn’t lead it. Price sits at $122, below the $125 high. For now, that keeps my short alive.
My BTC short is gone. The SOL short stays, with TP1 at $114, a final target of $85, and a stop at $132. Meanwhile, my spot bags keep growing on schedule.
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FAQ
Why is Solana up today?
The September jobs report missed badly. The US added 29,000 jobs against an 84,000 forecast. That cut October rate hike odds to around 20% and lifted risk assets, including SOL.
What were the September jobs numbers?
Payrolls rose by 29,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Wages grew 0.1% on the month and 3.0% on the year. In addition, revisions removed 60,000 jobs from July and August.
Why is a weak jobs report good for crypto?
The Fed is in a hiking cycle. Weak hiring lowers the chance of another hike, so yields fall. Because crypto pays no yield, lower rates make it more attractive.
What are the key Solana support and resistance levels?
Resistance sits at $125, then $130 to $136. Support sits at $120, then $111 and $100. Below that, the low $90s mark the deep end of a normal retrace.
How far could SOL pull back?
A healthy retrace covers 38% to 62% of the last run. For SOL, that means roughly $105 down to the low $90s. My own short target is $85.
Will the Fed hike rates in October?
Probably not. Polymarket prices a hold at 75% and a hike at 25%. Dovish Fed comments and the weak jobs report flipped those odds this week. In other words, a hold is mostly priced in.
Where is the stop on the SOL short?
My stop sits at $132. TP1 is around $114, where I move the stop to break-even. The final target is $85.
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