Gm from the 5am desk. Yesterday we spent the day in the trenches with ZCAT and the STONK vs PONS launchpad battle, so today we swing back to the big boards. Hyperliquid printed a fresh all-time high of $89.60 on September 6 while I was still on my Netherlands trip, and since then the chart has done exactly what I positioned for. HYPE now trades around $79.6, sitting right on the support area that decides what comes next.
I promised more trading content when I got back, and this is part of that. Full transparency on the position, the levels I am watching, and the macro backdrop that is pressuring the whole market right now.
My HYPE Short From $82.95
I opened this short yesterday at $82.95, right into the pump that followed the CPI release. The knee-jerk move sent HYPE as high as $84.37 before the market actually read the numbers, and fading data-driven spikes into resistance is one of my favorite setups. TP1 and TP2 have already hit, and my stop now sits at break even. That means the trade cannot lose from here, which is the only time I feel fully relaxed holding a short on my favorite chart.
I will be honest: I hate posting trade updates when the position is already in profit. It always reads like cherry picking. But the timing is what it is. We were locked in on the memecoin trenches yesterday, and the HYPE setup simply moved faster than my publishing schedule.
My next TP target sits at $77. When price gets there, I will decide whether I cut the full position or ride the short lower. That decision depends on how the level reacts, not on a number I picked in advance. If sellers push through $77 with conviction, there is no reason to give the market my exit for free.
One thing to be clear about, because I get this question a lot: shorting HYPE does not mean I turned bearish on Hyperliquid. It is still the only bag I held through the entire bear market. A short from the ATH zone is a trade, not a thesis change. If you want the market alpha the moment it happens instead of a day later, the newsletter is where I drop it first. Sign up on the homepage.
The Levels: Support at $78-$80, Then $77
The pullback from $89.60 has brought HYPE straight into the zone that matters. Analysts flagged $78-$80 as the key support area, with warnings of a deeper short-term correction if it fails. The 24-hour low printed at $78.29, so the market is testing this floor right now, not theorizing about it.
Above us, $83.80 flipped into short-term resistance, with $88 as the bigger wall before a retest of the highs. Below the current zone, my $77 target is the obvious magnet. Lose that, and the chart opens up toward the low $70s, where the August consolidation lives.
Volume tells the secondary story here. The selling into support has come with over a billion dollars in daily volume, which means real distribution rather than a quiet drift. If you want a refresher on why volume matters more than the candle itself, read our volume explained guide.
On the supply side, there is a date to circle: a token unlock worth roughly $1.2 billion hit on August 29, and another release of the same size is scheduled for September 29. Unlock supply into a support test is not a combination longs should ignore.
Macro Is Doing the Heavy Lifting
This pullback is not a Hyperliquid problem. It is a liquidity problem, and it starts with one of the most important recurring events on any trader’s calendar: the US CPI release.
Why CPI Days Move Crypto So Hard
CPI, the Consumer Price Index, measures how fast prices rise for the average American, and it is the inflation number the Federal Reserve watches when setting interest rates. That connection is why release days get so violent. The number drops at 8:30 AM ET, and within seconds every market on earth reprices its expectations for what the Fed does next. Rates set the price of money itself, so a surprise in either direction ripples through bonds, stocks, and crypto instantly.
Crypto reacts hardest of all because it trades as the high-beta end of risk assets, with billions in leveraged positions stacked on both sides. A hot or cool surprise triggers a cascade of liquidations before humans even finish reading the report. The first candle is usually algos and forced exits, not opinion. My entry faded exactly that reflex move.
The August Numbers and What They Triggered
Yesterday’s report came in hot where it hurts. Headline CPI rose 0.4% for the month and 3.4% year over year, still far above the Fed’s 2% target. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, printed 0.3% against the 0.2% economists expected, though its annual pace eased to 2.4%, the lowest core reading since March 2021.
Markets drew one conclusion fast: cheap money is not coming back soon. Odds of a rate hike at the September 16 meeting jumped to roughly 87%, up from the high 60s earlier in the month, and Polymarket now prices a 93% chance of zero cuts through the end of 2026. A Fed that hikes into a risk rally is the opposite of what crypto bulls ordered. We covered the full setup heading into this meeting in our Bitcoin and the Fed September breakdown, and everything in that post just became more relevant. Higher for longer drains the appetite for leverage, and HYPE is one of the most leverage-sensitive assets in the market by design.
There is a silver lining specific to Hyperliquid. The CFTC is still working on bringing the platform onshore in a compliant way, a storyline we unpacked in is Hyperliquid legal in the US. US access remains one of the biggest unpriced catalysts on the board. It just does not help the chart this week.
ZEC Flipped HYPE, and the Rotation Is Real
The other storyline pressuring HYPE is rotation. Privacy season came in hot, and ZEC recently flipped HYPE in the rankings, something almost nobody had on their 2026 bingo card. Capital that chased HYPE from $40 to $89 needed a new horse, and Zcash gave it one.
Rotation cuts both ways, though. Open interest on Hyperliquid itself recovered to $14.3 billion, right back near its record, and the protocol keeps routing 97% of perpetual fees into buybacks. One recent 24-hour window burned 15,350 HYPE, worth about $1.32 million. Traders are rotating between tokens, but they are doing it on Hyperliquid rails, and the burn machine does not care which ticker they trade.
That is exactly why my long-term position has not moved an inch.
Still My Only Bear Market Bag
Long-time readers know the deal. HYPE is the one position I carried through the whole bear market without selling, and I have been adding on the way with the DCA plan I laid out in my HYPE DCA strategy since early August. The short you read about above runs next to that stack, not instead of it. My spot bag wants lower prices to buy; my short pays me while we get there.
The farming side deserves an honest update too. I have been a little less active farming Hyperliquid Season 3 over the summer, between the family trip and the memecoin casino eating my screen time. It is still my favorite farm in all of crypto. Now that I am locked in again, it is time to put in some fresh volume, and a volatile week like this one is exactly when perp volume comes easy.
Keep This Content Free
No paywall on trade updates, ever, and the way you keep it that way costs you nothing. If you are opening your own HYPE position this week, long or short, use our OKX or Bybit links when you sign up. The site earns a small commission, your fees stay the same, and I get to keep posting entries instead of ads.
Final Words
My plan from here is simple. The short rides risk-free with the stop at entry, $77 is the decision point, and the spot bag plus DCA orders do not move regardless of what the Fed does on Tuesday. If support at $78-$80 holds and reclaims $83.80, I will happily take the short profit and go back to cheering my own bags higher.
One last point, because weeks like this always bring out the fear posts. Hyperliquid remains the best DeFi play on the board for me, and because it is self-custodial, you skip the nightmare scenario entirely. Your funds sit in your own wallet, not on some exchange balance sheet, so the question of what happens to your crypto when an exchange goes bankrupt never applies to you. We shared that full story recently, and it is worth a read before the next headline panic.
See you at $77, one way or another.
FAQ
What is the key HYPE price support right now? The $78-$80 zone is the level that matters. HYPE trades around $79.6 after pulling back from its $89.60 all-time high, and the 24-hour low of $78.29 shows the market is actively testing this floor. A clean break below opens the door to $77 and then the low $70s.
Why is HYPE dropping after its all-time high? Three forces stack together: a hot August CPI print that pushed Fed hike odds near 87% for the September 16 meeting, capital rotating into ZEC and privacy coins, and token unlock supply with another roughly $1.2 billion release scheduled for September 29.
Is Morten bearish on Hyperliquid now? No. The short from $82.95 is a trade against overheated price action, not a change in thesis. HYPE remains the only bag he held through the entire bear market, and his DCA buying plus Season 3 farming continue as normal.
Does a Fed rate hike hurt HYPE more than other coins? It can in the short term. HYPE trades as a high-beta risk asset tied to leverage appetite, so tighter policy drains its main fuel. The offset is that 97% of Hyperliquid’s perp fees flow into buybacks, which keeps structural buy pressure running through any macro storm.
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