XRP has spent the better part of 2026 grinding sideways in what looks like a coiling spring, except the spring may not be loading for an upward surge.
XRP’s four-month consolidation has trapped its price below a major resistance zone at $1.65, and according to crypto pundit CasiTrades, the clock is ticking because XRP is now exposed to one more move into lower macro support before any stronger recovery attempt begins.
Four Months Of Failure At $1.65
CasiTrades’ analysis is based on XRP’s inability to break back above the upper boundary of its consolidation structure on the 4-hour candlestick chart. As shown on the chart below, XRP has spent several months moving inside a range with lower highs. That has created a compression pattern where the next decisive move could be important for the broader trend.
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The most important level in the analysis is $1.65, because this price level has acted as the ceiling of the current structure since February, and each rejection from that area has weakened the immediate bullish case.
According to CasiTrades, the longer the XRP price fails to reclaim $1.65, the more likely it becomes that it needs one final flush into the lower macro supports. The analyst laid out the entire XRP price action since early 2026 within an Elliott Wave triangle structure with sub-impulse waves.
Lower Macro Supports For XRP
CasiTrades was explicit about the downside levels she is watching: $1.10 and $0.87 on Coinbase. The $1.10 area corresponds with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at approximately $1.0854, while the $0.87 price target aligns with the 0.854 retracement near $0.8621.
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The next confirmed support is between $1.26 and $1.30, and a break below that range could push XRP to the year-to-date low around $1.11, which will bring those deeper targets closer.
Interestingly, both price targets come from the broader macro downtrend that has shaped XRP’s structure over the past several months. The projected move would also complete the corrective sub-impulse wave 5 that began in February 2026, as well as the larger corrective wave 2 that started in late 2025.
This does not mean the bullish structure is fully invalidated. In fact, the pundit’s prediction appears to be that a move into macro support could become the final flush before a stronger recovery. The chart shows a large projected rebound from the lower support zone, with the XRP price eventually pushing back through $1.65 and breaking back above $2 if there’s enough bullish momentum.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.32 and is currently open to any path. The first real sign of a bullish shift will be XRP reclaiming $1.65 and turning it into support.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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