Bitcoin is down 3.35% over the past 24 hours to $73,281.93, underperforming an already weakening crypto market as renewed Middle East tensions and heavy institutional selling pressure continue weighing on risk assets. The asset is also showing a strong 83.6% correlation with gold, signaling that macroeconomic fears are heavily influencing current price action.
Amid the latest market weakness, crypto analyst Alex Mason says Bitcoin may still have much further to fall before any meaningful recovery begins.
According to Mason, Bitcoin has spent the last two months trading inside an ascending channel that created “fake strength” through slow higher highs, trapping retail traders into expecting a breakout toward $100,000.
The analyst pointed to Bitcoin’s recent move toward the CME gap near $82,000, arguing the level was successfully filled before the market quickly rejected higher prices. In his view, the rejection confirmed a classic bull trap before another leg lower.
Breakdown Toward $60K?
Mason says Bitcoin is now beginning to break down from the ascending channel structure. His short-term outlook includes a move toward $70,000, followed by a deeper correction toward the $60,000 range over the next few months.
“My plan for the next 3 months is simple,” Mason explained while outlining his bearish scenario.
He also claimed to have correctly called Bitcoin’s previous $16,000 bottom and the $126,000 top, adding that his next market call “will be even more important.”
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe also warned that Bitcoin could revisit the lower $60,000 range if current support levels break down. He said Bitcoin’s rejection near the $77,000 resistance zone accelerated downside momentum and triggered a sharper altcoin correction.
According to van de Poppe, end-of-month rebalancing by asset managers is partly driving the weakness, but the current support area remains critical for Bitcoin’s next move.
Prediction Markets Turn Less Bullish
Prediction markets are also showing reduced confidence in Bitcoin reaching six figures this year.
According to Kalshi Crypto, traders now place only a 32% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before the end of the year. The odds fall even further in the short term, with just a 4% probability of Bitcoin reaching that level next month.
The declining odds reflect growing uncertainty across financial markets as traders weigh geopolitical tensions, institutional selling, and broader macroeconomic risks against Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook.
While many crypto investors still expect Bitcoin to revisit all-time highs later in the cycle, Mason argues the market may first need a much deeper reset before another major rally can begin.
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