- The Bitcoin price faces a potential drop to $73,850 as overhead supply pressure from the 20-and-50-day exponential moving average could hinder recovery momentum.
- Bitcoin’s aggregated liquidation levels heatmap suggests that a 6-7% decline may trigger widespread long unwinds across exchanges
- Crypto fear and greed index at 30% indicate a renewed bearish sentiment among market participants.
The original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, shows a slight uptick of 0.56% during the opening bell of U.S. market hours on Monday to trade at $77,393. The jump followed geopolitical developments in the middle east as Iran says talks are focused on ending the war, triggering a sharp 5% slide in crude oil prices. The move eased pressure on energy sectors and inflation fears across global markets, prompting investors to pivot back toward risk assets including cryptocurrencies. However, the liquidation setup increases the odds of a downside move in Bitcoin price due to a structural asymmetry between longs and shorts perpetual futures.
Liquidation Heatmap Signals Asymmetric Risk for Bitcoin Traders
The Bitcoin price is currently hovering around the $77,441 level, drawing close attention from derivative market trades. Over $14.3 billion in total liquidation exposure is clustered around current price levels, with a nearly balanced split between long and short positions.
On the downside, long positions show particularly dense clusters, raising the risk of cascading liquidations. Approximately $1.61 billion in long exposure sits near $73,716. A deeper decline of ongoing correction would quickly intensify the selling pressure, as cumulative liquidation pools reached $3.85 billion at $73,281, $5.42 billion at $72,702, and $7.14 billion at $72,122. This suggests that a 6–7% drop could trigger significant long unwinds across multiple exchanges.
Conversely, the exposure on the upside is more spread out. Notable clusters include $1.66 billion near $78,786, scaling to $3.68 billion at $83,422, $5.57 billion at $84,146, and $7.20 billion toward $88,202. A wider space between these potential resistance zones indicate less immediate congestion compared to the aforementioned support zones.
Heatmaps from aggregated platforms’ show varying shades of these liquidation zones with brighter colour indicating the higher estimated volume. The current price action of Bitcoin indicates a compressed support zone below and more extended resistance above, which may lead to higher volatility if BTC breaks on either side.
The attached chart from Alphractal provides a clear, multi-exchange view of where order flow and forced liquidations may drive momentum in the coming sessions.
Overall, the asymmetric pattern (dense long clusters and broad based short position) suggest that Bitcoin is likely to continue trading within a range until a significant trigger emerges. A downside breach is more likely to lead to over exaggerated volatility and stop loss chasing while prolonged buying activity may eventually drive shorts out of the market and bring in new capital.
Bitcoin Price Correction May Extend Another 4.5% Support Before Hitting Key Support
Over the past two weeks, the Bitcoin price has dropped from $82,458 to current value of $77,393, accounting for a 6.3% drop. The pullback pushed BTC below the 20-and-50-day exponential moving averages, and the broader crypto fear and greed index back to 30% accentuating a negative market sentiment in the near term.
Even the intraday jump today shows a notable price rejection candle at $77,640 level, indicating the intact overhead supply on Bitcoin BTC0.50%. Thus, the coin price shows a higher possibility for a 4.5% drop and challenge the bottom support trendline of a rising channel pattern at $73,850.
From the technical perspective, this retest remains a pivot level for the near-term trend in Bitcoin price as a potential breakdown will accelerate the selling pressure, while the sustainable reversal could bolster further recovery.
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