The $1.40 resistance level keeps winning. XRP has tested it repeatedly and walked away empty-handed each time, and at $1.35 right now, it is sitting no closer to a breakout than it was weeks ago. XRP ETF inflows have been growing and open interest is recovering, so the ingredients for a move look like they are there. And yet nothing is happening on the price side. Is XRP a failure at doing anything with a setup that, on paper, should be working in its favor? That is the question a lot of traders are sitting with right now.
Is XRP a Failure or Can ETF Inflows Break the $1.40 Resistance?
ETF Inflows Are Growing, but the Price Disagrees
XRP ETF inflows have extended a three-day bullish streak. According to CoinGlass, $10.9 million came in on Tuesday and also roughly $1.46 million on Monday. Cumulative inflows now stand at $1.23 billion, with net assets under management averaging around $966 million. That is real institutional money going into XRP, and yet the XRP resistance level at $1.40 has not budged.
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Context matters here. When XRP ETFs launched in November 2025, they pulled in $1 billion in cumulative inflows within just the first four weeks. After that, inflows flipped to net outflows in March, with around $130 million in redemptions, and that reversal stands as one of the key reasons the price has been falling. With the XRP price stuck below $1.40 for weeks now, the ETF tailwind alone is not proving enough to push a breakout.
Derivatives Are Recovering Too
Futures open interest climbed to $2.47 billion on Wednesday, up from $2.38 billion on Monday, pointing to a mild return of retail capital. A growing derivatives market can lay the groundwork for a more sustained recovery. Still, these current numbers look small next to July, when open interest hit $10.94 billion and XRP was trading near its $3.66 all-time high. Is XRP a failure to recapture that kind of momentum? The data right now says yes.
XRP Price Prediction: What the Chart Shows
The XRP/USD 4-hour chart stays bearish. Price keeps hitting resistance at the 50-day EMA at $1.41, the 100-day EMA at $1.56, and also the 200-day EMA at $1.81. The RSI sits at 51, broadly neutral, suggesting consolidation rather than a sharp move in either direction. The MACD is also modestly positive on the same timeframe, though recovery attempts keep struggling while that overhead supply stays in place.
On the XRP price prediction front, a daily close above $1.41 opens the way toward $1.56, then $1.73, and also the 200-day EMA near $1.81. If the XRP resistance level at $1.40 keeps holding, a retest of $1.32 looks likely, and $1.30 is the next major support after that.
Most analysts point to regulatory clarity, and specifically the CLARITY Act clearing the Senate, as what the market needs to break this range. Until that happens, the XRP price stuck below $1.40 looks like the most realistic near-term scenario. Is XRP a failure in the short term? Looking at the charts right now, the case is hard to argue against. Is XRP a failure as a longer-term asset, though? The XRP price prediction from most analysts stays cautiously positive heading into 2027 and beyond. But at the time of writing, the bulls still have a lot of work ahead of them. Is XRP a failure? The answer depends entirely on how long you are willing to wait.
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