With the U.S. stock market having recently smashed the all-time highs, the Bitcoin bulls are eyeing a breakout of the current bear flag. Can they succeed, taking the price beyond $80K, or is the stock market due for a pull back after going so high, dragging Bitcoin back with it?
S&P 500 all-time high but new top coming?
Source: TradingView
The S&P 500 seems to be pricing in that the Middle East conflict is soon to come to an end, or at least the market appears to be discounting the threat of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
A new all-time high instead of a continued roll over back to the bottom of the channel is the gauge of market sentiment at the moment. That said, the top of the channel is very close now. Given the more than 7-year history of this channel, it is quite likely that the price could be rejected once the top is reached.
Bulls wrestle with $76,000 resistance
Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart reveals that the $BTC price is wrestling again with the $76,000 horizontal resistance level. As can be seen at the bottom of the chart, the Stochastic RSI indicators have turned back around, signalling the renewed upside momentum that could take the price back to the bear flag top at around $77,000 – $78,000.
Can the bulls push the price on through? If the S&P 500 blows through the top of the long-standing channel, Bitcoin could certainly do the same with its bear flag. In contrast, if the S&P is rejected, it might be likely that the $BTC price is also turned back from such an important level.
A likely rejection coming?
Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that things are on a knife edge. The $BTC price has got above the 100-day simple moving average (green line), and the 50-day SMH (blue line) is curving around nicely to perhaps cross back above the 100-day.
After breaking through the 7-month long downtrend line, it looks very likely that the price is going to hit the top of the bear flag. Will it break through? A priceless clue as to whether this will happen comes in the form of the RSI at the bottom of the chart.
A downtrend line stretches back to June 2025, and since then, there have been three perfect touches of the line. The indicator line is very close to another touch, and it is very likely that this occurs at the same time as the price action touches the top of the bear flag. If one weighs up the probabilities, a rejection is by far the more likely outcome.
That said, the downtrend has to break at some point, and the indicator line recently came down to a low not witnessed since the Covid crash in March 2020.
Still looking good in weekly time frame
Source: TradingView
We zoom out into the weekly view and the bull case looks very much alive. The current weekly candle is blowing through the downtrend, and unless there is a really bad weekend that sends the $BTC price back beneath the trendline, all looks good here.
Once again, the RSI provides a good input signal into the health of this rally. After coming nearly all the way down to match the low during the 2022 bear market, the indicator line has risen strongly since, and is perhaps on course to travel back to the top. If it does so, that would likely include a big part of the next potential bull market.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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