- Nearly $2B in BTC and ETH Options expire today, with max pain levels at $70K and $2,150 respectively.
- $75K emerges as a key resistance for BTC ahead of larger quarterly expiry, while $60K–$65K zones act as support.
- Low volatility and cooling on-chain activity signal cautious sentiment as traders await next week’s major expiry.
A large batch of Bitcoin Options and Ethereum Options is set to expire today, which might be instrumental for the short-term price action in the derivatives market. Data from Greeks.live shows that contracts associated with both BTC and ETH options are nearing settlement, with a combined notional value close to $1.97 billion.
BTC and ETH Options Expiries and Its Implications
The bulk of this expiry is mostly in Bitcoin options. Around 23,000 BTC contracts are due to settle, i.e., roughly $1.6 billion in value. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.88, indicating a slightly higher share of bullish positions compared to bearish ones. At the same time, the so-called “max pain” level, the price at which the greatest number of options expire worthless, is estimated near $70,000.
【3月20日期权交割数据】
2.3万张BTC期权到期，Put Call Ratio为0.88，最大痛点70000美元，名义价值16亿美元。
17.6万张ETH期权到期，Put Call Ratio为1.04，最大痛点2150美元，名义价值3.7亿美元。… pic.twitter.com/jdShJJTivR— Adam@Greeks.live (@BTC__options) March 20, 2026
Ethereum options are also part of the expiry cycle, though on a smaller scale. Roughly 176,000 ETH contracts, valued at about $370 million, are set to expire. Here, the put-to-call ratio sits at 1.04, and suggests a more balanced or slightly cautious positioning among traders. The max pain level for ETH is placed around $2,150.
These expiries come at a time when the overall market has already shown signs of fatigue. Bitcoin, after trying to surge in recent sessions, has struggled to maintain momentum above key resistance levels. As per Adam’s analysis:
75K is the price with the most concentrated open interest and represents a significant resistance level.
This level has captured a considerable share of open interest – and especially that related to end-of-month payouts. Recent price action points to the pressure. Bitcoin momentarily dipped below the $70,000 level before settling close to it.
The inability to sustain a breakout over resistance can lead to a pullback, with traders changing their expectations in the short term. Traders are now looking beyond today’s expiry for quarterly options settlement due on March 27, which is expected to be more important. Quarterly expiries typically involve several times the volume of weekly contracts. They often lead to increased trading activity as positions are rolled forward or closed.
Data from the options market suggests that $75,000 remains the most crowded strike price for Bitcoin in the upcoming cycle. On the downside, several price bands between $65,000 and $60,000 show high open interest. These areas may act as support if selling pressure piles up.
On the other hand, implied volatility for Bitcoin options has held around 50%, and Ethereum’s sits near 70%. Realised volatility has declined in recent sessions, which narrows the gap between expected and actual price movement. This has led to a rise in the volatility risk premium, which shows a market that is pricing in uncertainty but not yet experiencing sharp swings.
Trading activity on-chain has also cooled. Transfer volumes are decreasing, and fee generation is slowing. Long-term holders seem to be trading cryptos at a lower clip, but miners keep selling a steady share of newly minted tokens. These trends indicate an active, but not overheated, market. In derivatives markets, sentiment is turning somewhat more cautious. The skew, which is a measure of the difference between the price of call and put options, has softened. This reflects lower demand for upside exposure and a more balanced take on risk.
Today’s expiration may serve as a temporary anchor for prices. Typically, assets tend towards the max pain level as they approach settlement, driven by hedging activity from large market participants. Once the deals go away, that influence usually disappears, and prices run more slackly. Yet the overall picture is still closely connected with positioning and liquidity. Only a small portion of total open interest is expiring in this cycle, which limits the direct effect. On the other hand, due to relatively low trading activity, any sudden inflow or outflow could have an outsized effect.
As the market moves toward next week’s quarterly expiry, attention is likely to shift toward how traders reposition. That transition often brings higher volumes and sharper price swings, thus, the options market reflects a cautious stance.
Also Read: Chainlink Price Risks $9 Breakdown as Bear Flag Pattern Emerges
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