- William Blair analysts said Coinbase shares appear de-risked after falling roughly 26% from their March highs.
- The analysts argued that weaker trading volumes are already priced in, while growing USDC adoption is improving the broader outlook for Coinbase and Circle.
Coinbase may be entering earnings season from a weaker position on the chart, but that is exactly why some analysts now see the stock as looking less dangerous, not more.
William Blair analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury said their expectations for Coinbase have been reset after the shares gave back much of an earlier first-quarter rebound. Since peaking in March, COIN has fallen about 26%, a move the analysts say has already absorbed much of the disappointment tied to softer trading conditions.
Softer trading looks less like a shock than a known problem
That is the core of the call. Coinbase is still facing weaker volumes and lower transaction revenue, but William Blair’s view is that investors already know that. The analysts noted those trends have been running below estimates for much of the year, which makes the likely downgrade cycle feel more like a delayed adjustment than a fresh negative surprise.
In that context, first-quarter earnings may matter less for sentiment than they usually would. Coinbase is expected to report on May 7, but William Blair suggested that softer results are unlikely to materially change the market’s mood because the reset has largely happened already.
That is not the same as saying the quarter will be strong. It is more than expectations have been lowered enough for weak numbers to land with less force.
USDC is becoming more important to the Coinbase story
The more constructive part of the outlook comes from stablecoins, specifically USDC. William Blair said growing adoption of Coinbase’s primary stablecoin is improving the setup not only for Coinbase but also for Circle.
That matters because Coinbase’s business is no longer judged solely on trading activity. Transaction revenue still matters, obviously, but the company has been trying to broaden its earnings base through subscriptions, services and stablecoin-linked economics.
USDC fits neatly into that shift. If trading remains soft, a growing stablecoin business gives Coinbase another way to keep investors focused on longer-term monetization rather than quarter-to-quarter volume swings. For now, that seems to be enough for William Blair to argue that much of the near-term risk has already been wrung out of the stock.
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