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What happened on 10/10 and my theory behind it

By WebDeskDecember 23, 20256 Mins Read
What happened on 10/10 and my theory behind it
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Months later, traders still refer to 10/10 as a turning point for this cycle.
It was not just another red day on the chart.
For many, it marked the moment confidence cracked and market behavior changed.

At the time, I was travelling through India.
While hopping buses in Jaipur, the biggest liquidation event in crypto history was unfolding.
Ironically, I barely noticed it in real time.

What actually happened on 10/10

(the clean timeline)


The setup: leverage everywhere

Going into 10/10, the market was fragile.
Bitcoin had pushed higher earlier, confidence was elevated, and leverage had quietly stacked up.

Funding rates were stretched.
Open interest sat near cycle highs.
Altcoins, especially lower-liquidity ones, were crowded with long positions.

This was a powder keg.


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The trigger: macro shock, not crypto-only

10/10 did not start inside crypto.
It started outside of it.

Late on October 10, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new escalation in trade tensions.
The headline was a proposed 100% tariff on Chinese imports, combined with threats of export controls on critical software and technology.

Global markets reacted immediately.
Risk assets turned risk-off.
Crypto followed, but with far more leverage beneath the surface.

This part is often overlooked.


Macro shock meets crypto leverage

The tariff announcement alone was not enough to cause a crash.
What mattered was timing.

Crypto was already overextended.
When macro fear hit a highly levered market, price did not reprice slowly.
It snapped.

The initial drop in bitcoin was relatively modest.
However, it was enough to push price into stacked liquidation zones.
From that point on, fundamentals no longer mattered.


The cascade: liquidation feeds liquidation

Once the first wave of leveraged longs was liquidated, forced market sells hit the books.
Those sells pushed price lower.
Lower price triggered even more liquidations.

This feedback loop defined 10/10.

Liquidity thinned rapidly.
Altcoins suffered the most due to shallow order books.
Some printed intraday wicks of minus 60 to minus 80 percent in a single candle.

By the end of the day, roughly 19 billion dollars had been wiped out through liquidations alone.

That scale is why traders still call it 10/10.


Pengu -80% wick on 10/10
$PENGU -80% wick on 10/10

The aftermath: confidence damage

After the flush, price bounced.
The bounce did not restore trust.

Traders realized how fast capital could disappear.
Risk appetite dropped sharply.
Market behavior shifted almost overnight.

This is why 10/10 still gets referenced months later.


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Why I barely felt it at the time

My exposure was limited.
Most of my large altcoin positions were already sold back in August.

Because of that, daily life continued as normal.
Travel, logistics, and long days on the road took priority.
Only later did I open charts and realize how extreme the move really was.

That contrast makes 10/10 feel surreal in hindsight.


My theory behind 10/10

This cycle feels different.
In my view, manipulation is heavier than in previous ones.

Crypto is no longer a retail-only playground.
Large traditional finance players are deeply involved now.
With bigger capital comes more advanced tools.

Algorithms and bots can read liquidity books in seconds.
They know exactly where leverage is stacked.
Once price is pushed into those zones, liquidations do the rest.

Retail traders cannot compete with that speed or capital.
In this setup, it feels like taking candy from a baby.
Unfortunately, we are the babies.


The main theories behind 10/10


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Theory 1: pure leverage unwind

This is the cleanest explanation.
Too much leverage, stacked too tightly, in a market with thin liquidity.

Once price moved against those positions, the outcome was inevitable.
The scale was large, but the mechanism was simple.

Leverage builds slowly.
Liquidations happen fast.


Theory 2: market structure failure

Some argue the move was amplified by how crypto markets are built.
Liquidation engines, oracle pricing, and index calculations all interact during stress.

When those systems lag or desync, liquidations can trigger at worse prices.
That creates exaggerated wicks and sharp dislocations.

In this view, 10/10 exposed weaknesses in market plumbing.


Theory 3: coordinated liquidity hunting

This is where opinions get spicy.

Large players know where leverage sits.
That information is visible through order flow, funding, and positioning data.

If price is pushed into those zones, liquidations do the work automatically.
Profit can be made on the way down and again on the bounce.

There is no proof of coordination.
But the incentives exist.


Theory 4: exchange and market maker involvement

Exchanges and market makers sit closest to the data.
They see flows before retail does.

Names like Binance, Coinbase, and Wintermute often come up in these discussions.
Not necessarily as villains, but as part of the system.

Whether they actively participate or simply facilitate the environment is unknown.
If history repeats, clarity will only come years later.


Theory 5: a sentiment reset by design

Some believe 10/10 served a psychological purpose.
Flush excess leverage.
Reset sentiment.
Shake out weak hands.

After that, price does not need to trend hard.
Sideways and choppy markets do the job.

Looking at post-10/10 price action, that theory fits uncomfortably well.


Why these theories matter

The truth is probably not just one theory.
It is likely a combination.

Leverage created vulnerability.
Market structure amplified the move.
Large players benefited from the chaos.

For retail traders, the conclusion is the same.
Risk management matters more than narratives.


How the market behaved after 10/10

Since 10/10, price action has felt different.
The market turned sideways and choppy.
Momentum faded quickly.

Altcoins have suffered the most.
Many coins bounced after the initial wick down.
However, most already retested those wick lows again.

That behavior signals weak confidence.
Sentiment remains extremely low.
Fear dominates decision-making across the board.


2.5 month after 1010 still extreme fear
2.5 months after 10/10 still extreme fear

Can it happen again?

Yes, it can.
Nothing structural has changed.

If 19 billion dollars can be wiped out in one day, it can happen again.
That does not mean traders are powerless.
Risk management still matters.

Avoiding high leverage removes most liquidation risk.
Using stop losses limits damage when volatility spikes.
Staying liquid creates opportunity instead of regret.


Lessons from 10/10

The biggest takeaway is simple.
Survival comes first.

Traders who avoided liquidation kept their capital.
Those traders had the option to play the bounce.
Everyone else became forced sellers.

That is the real difference 10/10 exposed.


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Final thoughts on 10/10

10/10 will stay part of crypto vocabulary.
Not because of a headline, but because it revealed how fragile leveraged markets are.

I was lucky to be underexposed.
Many others were not.

Now the market waits.
Sideways charts.
Weak altcoins.
Low confidence.

Maybe a Santa rally brings back momentum.
Maybe it does not.

One thing is certain though.
After 10/10, traders look at risk very differently.

As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus below on Gate.com. See you next time!

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Credit: Source link

Previous ArticleBitcoin Price Just Had Its Worst Q4 Since 2018. Is This a Market Breakdown or a Rest?
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