According to Dragonfly’s “2025 Airdrop Status Report,” US users have missed out on significant potential returns from crypto airdrops due to geopolitical restrictions. Between 2020 and 2024, it is estimated that US users lost between $1.84 billion and $2.64 billion in potential earnings. Meanwhile, the US government faced tax revenue losses ranging from $525 million to $1.38 billion as a result of these restrictions.
Dragonfly’s “2025 Airdrop Status Report,” examines the impact of airdrops within the blockchain ecosystem, shedding light on their role in fostering value creation and distribution in emerging digital economies.
2025 Airdrop Status Report
To assess the economic impact of US geoblocking on token distribution, data from over 12 airdrops (11 with geoblocking and 1 without, used as a control) from 2019 to 2023 were analyzed in the report.
- US Users Affected by Geoblocking: It is estimated that between 920,000 and 5.2 million active US users (5–10% of the estimated 18.4 to 52.3 million cryptocurrency holders in the US) were impacted by geoblocking policies in 2024. These policies restricted their participation in airdrops and limited access to certain projects.
- Percentage of Active US Crypto Addresses in 2024: Around 22–24% of all active crypto addresses globally were attributed to US residents.
- Total Value of Airdrops in Report’s Sample: The 11 projects analyzed collectively generated an estimated $7.16 billion in value to date, with approximately 1.9 million claimants worldwide, yielding an average median claim value of around $4,600 per eligible address.
- Estimated Revenue Lost by US Users: Based on the 11 geoblocked airdrops in the sample, the total potential revenue lost by US users between 2020 and 2024 is estimated at $1.84 billion to $2.64 billion.
- Broader Losses for US Users (CoinGecko Sample): Using the percentage of US active addresses applied to a sample of 21 geoblocked airdrops from CoinGecko, total potential revenue lost for US users from 2020 to 2024 could range from $3.49 billion to $5.02 billion.
Missed Tax Revenue from Geoblocked Airdrops:
Based on the analysis of both Dragonfly’s sample and CoinGecko’s sample, the estimated federal tax revenue lost due to geoblocked airdrop income between 2020 and 2024 ranges from $418 million to $1.1 billion. In addition to this, state tax revenue losses are estimated to be between $107 million and $284 million, bringing the total tax revenue loss to between $525 million and $1.38 billion. Note that these figures do not account for further tax revenue that would have been generated from capital gains taxes when these tokens were eventually sold.
Corporate Tax Revenue Loss from Offshore Migration:
The trend of crypto operations shifting aborad has also contributed to significant US tax revenue losses. For example, Tether, which reported $6.2 billion in profits for 2024 but is incorporated outside the US, could have contributed approximately $1.3 billion in federal corporate taxes and $316 million in state taxes if it had been subject to US tax regulations. While actual tax liability would depend on the company’s corporate structure, this example highlights the broader tax revenue losses due to the migration of crypto firms abroad.
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