Strategy Is Bracing For A Bear Market, CryptoQuant Says

A collapse in Strategy’s Bitcoin buying this year and a $1.4 billion reserve fund announced this week show that Michael Saylor’s firm is bracing for a bear market, CryptoQuant said.

The on-chain analytics firm said in a Dec. 3 report that Strategy’s monthly BTC purchases fell from 134,000 at the 2024 peak to just 9,100 in November, with only 130 BTC added so far this month.

The CryptoQuant report comes shortly after Strategy announced the establishment of a $1.4 billion reserve, which will enable the firm to make good on its debt obligations over the next two years. 

”Strategy’s Bitcoin buying has collapsed through 2025,” it said on X. ”A 24-month buffer makes one thing clear: they’re bracing for the bear market.”

It added that the establishment of the 24-month buffer suggests an expectation that Bitcoin could trade sideways or lower for an extended period, and that capital markets may be less receptive to future stock issuance.

It also shows the acknowledgement a probability of ”a deep or extended bitcoin drawdown,” it said.

Strategy’s Treasury Strategy Scrutinized Amid Stock Price Collapse

There’s increased nervousness over Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury strategy after its MSTR stock plummeted more than 50% in the past six months and 24% in the last month.

Strategy share price (Source: Google Finance)

This has seen the company’s enterprise value drop below the value of its 650k Bitcoin holdings. 

Strategy Announces $1.4 Billion Cash Reserve To Meet Debt Obligations

Critics said that Strategy’s declining share price and a broader crypto market slump would force the company to sell its BTC in order to pay back investors. 

While Saylor stood firm on his “never sell Bitcoin” stance, Strategy’s CEO Phong Le added to investor concerns when he said last weekend that the company may consider selling some of its BTC in certain situations.

These scenarios include if the company’s stock falls below its net asset value or if it losses access to financing. 

In an attempt to soothe investor anxiety, the company announced a $1.4 billion USD reserve. A press release said it is meant to cover at least a year of dividends, and ultimately two years, to give the company a financial cushion. CEO Phong Le said it currently exceeds the company’s near-term payout obligation.

Strategy has acquired 130 BTC for ~$11.7 million at ~$89,960 per bitcoin. As of 11/30/2025, we hodl 650,000 $BTC acquired for ~$48.38 billion at ~$74,436 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRE https://t.co/UkWX7PRHms

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) December 1, 2025

Critics have questioned whether Strategy can meet obligations from its preferred stock, a concern that’s amplified by broader market weakness.

MSCI Delisting Risk Threatens Billion-Dollar Outflows

Adding to Strategy’s woes is the risk that it is delisted from MSCI indexes next month.

JPMorgan warned last week that Strategy faces a multi-billion hit from MSCI and other index providers that may delist the company.

The warning came after MSCI said it is considering excluding companies whose digital asset holdings represent more than 50% of their total assets from its indexes. Its decision is due on Jan. 15.

If that happens, JPMorgan said Strategy may see as much as $2.8 billion in liquidity leave, and JPMorgan estimated that billions more would follow if other index providers followed its lead. Passive funds using index-based allocations hold some $9 billion of the Bitcoin buyer’s stock, it said, via indexes including MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100. 

Saylor responded on X, saying “Strategy is not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company,” adding that ”we’re a publicly traded operating company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy that uses Bitcoin as productive capital.” 

Related Articles:

Best Wallet – Diversify Your Crypto Portfolio

• Easy to Use, Feature-Driven Crypto Wallet
• Get Early Access to Upcoming Token ICOs
• Multi-Chain, Multi-Wallet, Non-Custodial
• Now On App Store, Google Play
• Stake To Earn Native Token $BEST
• 250,000+ Monthly Active Users