Why XRP is stuck below $2.28 right now has become a pressing question for traders watching the token hold a narrow range despite some bullish shifts in on-chain activity. XRP dormancy has actually climbed to a three-month high after spent coins dropped by 91%, which typically signals reduced sell pressure and sets up conditions for a potential breakout. Yet the anticipated XRP breakout remains elusive as long-term holders continue distributing their tokens, and this creates a tug-of-war that keeps the price analysis firmly bearish and trapped in the same range it’s been holding since mid-November.
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Why XRP Is Stuck As Dormancy Rises And Sell Pressure Slows Down
Spent Coins Drop 91%, Dormancy Hits Three-Month Peak
The narrative starts with the spent coins, which measure the amount of older XRP tokens moving daily. The indicator has dropped by 91% or 16.32 million XRP as of today compared to 186.36 million XRP on November 15, and this also represents the lowest level in the past three months. A pause in the movement of the old supply usually causes the sell pressure on XRP to plunge. This explains why, as spending coins decrease, dormancy reaches its greatest point in three months.
In a normal market, this change, in itself, would be predicted to sustain a higher XRP price. However, at the current point in time, the conviction groups are going in the reverse direction, and that is why XRP is stagnating despite rising metrics. HODL Waves tracking supply held by each age group will provide obvious distributions amongst older holders over the last month. The 6-12 months follow-up has declined with 26.18% of supply decreasing to 21.65% of supply. The 1-2 year group has dropped to 8.61% and even the 2-3 years cohort has declined to 14.12%.
These groups form the backbone of trend strength because they control the supply that rarely moves. When they reduce their share like this, upside attempts lose power, which also explains why even recent whale buying hasn’t been enough to lift the price. Whales have increased exposure, but persistent outflows from older holders are still overpowering that demand right now. Until long-term supply stops leaving these cohorts, dormancy alone cannot drive a breakout for XRP.
Key Resistance at $2.28 Blocks Momentum Build
The chart reflects the same tug-of-war that’s been playing out. XRP price has remained stuck between $2.28 and $1.81 since November 15, and traders haven’t seen a single daily close above $2.28 during this period. This remains the key line that must break for momentum to build and for any real XRP breakout to materialize. A successful move above $2.28 would open the next targets at $2.56 and also $2.69, which are areas where the token has reacted strongly before.
A close below $1.98, however, would weaken the current structure and increase the chance of a return to $1.81. At the time of writing, long-term holders continue to apply pressure that anchors price movement, and this explains why XRP remains stuck in this range despite the bullish dormancy signal.
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For now, the message is actually quite clear. Dormancy sits at a three-month high as spent coins hit a three-month low, but long-term holders continue distributing their holdings. The XRP price analysis shows that the token will stay inside its range until these conviction groups stabilize and a daily candle closes above $2.28. Established holders continue to apply sell pressure that overpowers the reduced movement of older coins, and this prevents the breakout that shorter-term metrics suggest should already happen. This explains why XRP remains stuck—the bullish on-chain signal has materialized, yet conviction holders continue to dominate price action with their fundamental selling pressure right now.
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