As the crypto market enters the final stretch of March, several pivotal events and developments loom large. From macroeconomic indicators to significant protocol upgrades and regulatory deadlines, here are the key points to watch in the week ahead.
#1 Crypto Awaits February PCE Inflation Data – Friday
All eyes in the crypto sphere remain on macroeconomic signals, with the release of February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures scheduled for Friday, March 28. This metric is widely recognized as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, and analysts say it could prove critical for short-term price action across digital assets.
Economists predict core PCE (which excludes food and energy) to register between 0.3% and 0.4% month-over-month, translating to an annualized rate potentially near 2.6%–2.8%. As for headline PCE, forecasts suggest a year-over-year range of 2.5%–2.7%, with a monthly gain of around 0.3%.
These projections come on the heels of January’s data (2.5% headline, 2.6% core) and reflect ongoing inflationary pressures spurred by, among other factors, tariff policies championed by US President Donald Trump. Should the PCE print higher than expected, it may bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate elevated—signaling a potentially delayed timeline for any rate cuts beyond June.
#2 Grayscale’s Spot Solana ETF – Monday
Regulatory clarity around crypto-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues to be a focal point for investors, especially in the altcoin arena. Two weeks ago, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed decisions on several Solana (SOL) ETFs (including those by 21Shares, Canary, and VanEck).
Now, the next deadline for the Commission to act on Grayscale’s proposed spot Solana ETF (GSOL) arrives on March 23. Grayscale filed in December 2024 to convert its existing Grayscale Solana Trust into an ETF, and NYSE Arca intends to list the product under the ticker “GSOL.” The SEC acknowledged an amended 19b-4 filing on February 6, which appeared in the Federal Register on February 18.
#3 AAVE Buybacks Rumored To Start
Decentralized finance (DeFi) mainstay Aave could see heightened price activity if rumors of impending crypto token buybacks pan out. Marc Zeller, founder of the Aave Chan Initiative (ACI), revealed that the governance proposal to revamp the Aave protocol’s tokenomics—known as Aavenomics—has passed quorum.
Zeller said: “If the implementation, review & AIP vote is done on time, SAAVE buybacks will likely start this month.”
The Aavenomics framework introduces a “fee switch,” enabling the protocol to share part of its revenue with staked token holders. A core component is a “Buy & Distribute” process, which, according to the proposal, would allocate $1 million from Aave’s excess revenue every week for six months to buy back AAVE tokens. These tokens would then be distributed to participants who have staked or locked their AAVE.
Community support has been overwhelming, with over 813,000 votes in favor of the proposal against just three votes opposing it. Aave co-founder Stani Kulechov described the initiative as a “fee switch on steroids,” and Zeller called it the “most important proposal in ACI history.” Traders are now eagerly awaiting an Aave Improvement Proposal (AIP) vote for final implementation.
#4 Ethereum’s Pectra Activates On Hoodi – Wednesday
Ethereum developers continue their march toward enhanced scalability and functionality with the Pectra upgrade, scheduled to go live on the newly launched Hoodi testnet on March 26.
Last week, Ethereum core developer Tim Beiko confirmed the details: “A new testnet, Hoodi, has been launched to help wrap up Pectra testing. Stakers, this is your new testing ground Pectra will activate on it next Wednesday (March 26). Holesky will be maintained until September. It still works to test everything, except for validator exits.”
Pectra, a combination of the Prague and Electra upgrades, aims to bring several significant features, including transaction batching, crypto gas fee payments in ERC-20 tokens, sponsored transactions, a higher staking limit, and blobspace expansion to improve scalability. If Hoodi’s fork is successful, mainnet activation could follow roughly 30 days later, potentially as early as April 25.
#5 XRP Lawsuit – All Eyes On Ripple
In the wake of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to drop its appeal against Ripple as of March 24, 2025, attention now turns to Ripple’s cross-appeal. Filed in October 2024, this cross-appeal seeks to overturn both the $125 million fine and the ruling that institutional XRP sales constituted securities offerings.
With the SEC’s appeal off the table, Ripple must decide whether to proceed with its own challenge. If it does, its response brief is due by April 16, 2025. Should Ripple continue, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals will review the penalty and institutional sales ruling. If the crypto firm chooses to withdraw, the August 2024 judgment becomes final—meaning a $125 million fine stands, but no securities violation for programmatic sales.
At press time, BTC traded at $87,330.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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