Dogecoin, the popular meme coin, has recently experienced a steep decline, reaching a DOGE price of $0.13, its lowest value since October 2024. This drop comes as large whale investors offload massive amounts of DOGE, contributing to market volatility. Over just 48 hours, whales sold off about 1.32 billion DOGE tokens worth $190 million, causing ripples throughout the market.
This significant sell-off has coincided with a broader downturn in the cryptocurrency market on April 7. With whales holding around 47% of the circulating DOGE supply, their selling actions have been influential, making smaller investors anxious about potential further price drops.
Whale Influence and Market Sentiment
Whales, who own over one million DOGE, now control nearly 70.5 billion DOGE tokens. Their dominance in the market means that when they sell, the price often feels the pressure. Recent whale selling has led to a worrying trend: ongoing downward pressure on the coin’s price. When supply exceeds demand, especially in the wake of such massive sales, the price is more likely to continue declining.
For retail investors, this creates a tense atmosphere. Panic selling could exacerbate the situation, further driving the price lower. Additionally, many large wallet holders have been offloading DOGE since December, which poses an ongoing risk to the coin’s recovery.
ETF Race: Can It Help Dogecoin?
Despite the bearish price action, there is a glimmer of hope for Dogecoin in the form of exchange-traded products (ETPs) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On April 9, 21Shares launched a Dogecoin ETP on the SIX Swiss Exchange. In tandem, they filed for a U.S. spot DOGE ETF with the SEC, aiming to bring institutional and retail investors more access to the meme coin.
21Shares now joins other major firms like Bitwise and Grayscale in the race to offer a spot Dogecoin ETF in the U.S. While this would be a big step toward mainstream adoption, the initial market reaction has been tepid, with DOGE hovering around $0.15.
Will the DOGE ETF Receive Approval?
The outlook for DOGE ETF approval is mixed. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, give a 64% chance of approval by the end of 2025, slightly down from previous forecasts of 75%. Although miners have been more bullish since March, increasing their holdings, the sentiment among smaller investors remains muted. There is limited retail interest, as evidenced by relatively low social media activity and user metrics.
In addition, large holders (those with over one billion DOGE) continue their sell-off strategies, adding further uncertainty to the market. If this trend persists, it could cap any significant recovery for DOGE in the short term.
Price Levels to Watch
From a technical standpoint, DOGE has erased all gains made during the U.S. election period, dropping back to the $0.15 level, which had served as support in March. Analysts are keeping a close eye on this level, as a break below could signal further losses, potentially pushing the price down to $0.10 or even $0.06.
On the flip side, a return to bullish momentum would require DOGE to reclaim the 200 Daily Moving Average (DMA), which is currently above $0.25. The approval of a DOGE ETF could act as a catalyst, providing institutional backing and renewed interest in the coin.
Technical Setup and Potential for Recovery
Despite recent losses, technical analysts are showing optimism for DOGE in the medium term. Although Dogecoin has suffered a 5.8% drop over the past week and a 13.8% decline over 14 days, some technical signals suggest that DOGE could be near a pivotal inflection point. A breakout from the current downtrend could lead to significant price gains.
The 3-day candlestick chart is revealing a potential breakout structure, with historical resistance levels and bullish divergence providing key support. These technical patterns have been observed in previous DOGE surges, hinting that an upward move could be on the horizon. Some analysts predict an extended upside, potentially targeting a price as high as $0.67 if current signals hold.
In addition, Dogecoin has shown relative stability during broader market declines. While other cryptocurrencies have experienced significant losses, DOGE posted a modest increase of 0.11%, indicating its resilience.
Wyckoff Accumulation Setup: A Hidden Opportunity?
One of the most intriguing developments in DOGE’s price action is the formation of a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern. This chart pattern, which marks the accumulation phase of an asset, has been identified by traders as a potential setup for a price breakout.
The Wyckoff Accumulation consists of several key phases: Selling Climax (SC), Automatic Rally (AR), Secondary Test (ST), and the Spring. DOGE has seemingly progressed through these phases, with Phase C (the Spring) marking a sharp dip designed to shake out weak hands.
Currently, DOGE is in Phase D, where the price is testing resistance levels around $0.178. If DOGE successfully breaks through this level, it could enter Phase E, marking the start of an uptrend. Traders are watching for a “Sign of Strength” rally, which could signal the beginning of DOGE’s next bullish phase.
Final Thoughts
Dogecoin’s price action has been dominated by the influence of whale investors, who have caused significant price volatility. The potential approval of a DOGE ETF and positive technical signals offer hope for a reversal. However, short-term market pressures remain, and the influence of large wallet holders will likely continue to weigh on DOGE’s price.
As Dogecoin moves through its Wyckoff Accumulation phase, the next few weeks could prove crucial. If DOGE manages to break key resistance levels, it could begin a sustained recovery. However, the uncertain outlook for ETF approval and continued whale selling suggest that investors should remain cautious for now.
Ultimately, Dogecoin’s price remains highly sensitive to both market forces and investor sentiment. While there’s potential for upside, the current environment is still fraught with volatility. Investors should proceed with caution and keep an eye on the developments surrounding the DOGE ETF approval process and whale behavior.
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