The current bitcoin range is not an easy one to navigate.
On the higher time frames, we look stretched. Several indicators are flashing oversold conditions. Fear levels are extreme. Structurally, that often precedes a meaningful bounce.
Zoom into the mid time frames, however, and the story changes. The trend is still pointing down. Every push into resistance gets sold. Support levels are fragile. Weak hands keep getting shaken out.
So what am I doing?
I’m trading the lower time frames.
Not because I’m certain about direction. But because I want to stay active, sharp, and positioned for the moment Bitcoin decides to move.
At the extremes, the outcomes are wide:
- A deeper bear market low below $50K
- Possibly even a flush toward the $38K region
- Or a relief rally toward $82K
- And maybe, if momentum returns, a stretch toward $100K
None of those moves happen overnight. Which means there is a lot of trading inside this bitcoin range before the real breakout arrives.
And on top of that, macro tension is rising again. Headlines around Iran and broader geopolitical stress are adding another layer of uncertainty. In these environments, markets trade reactive, not predictive.
Let’s break it down.
Bitcoin Range Under Pressure After Hawkish Fed Minutes
Bitcoin recently slipped below the $67K level after the latest Federal Reserve minutes leaned more hawkish than markets expected.
Rates were held steady, but the tone suggested policymakers are not ready to declare victory over inflation. The possibility of higher-for-longer interest rates is back on the table.
That matters.
When rates stay elevated:
- The dollar tends to strengthen
- Liquidity tightens
- Risk assets struggle
Bitcoin has increasingly traded as a macro proxy. When the dollar rises and liquidity expectations fade, BTC often reacts quickly.
The drop toward the $66K zone wasn’t random. It aligned with:
- Stronger dollar flows
- Hawkish interpretation of policy
- Weak momentum on the daily chart
Each rally attempt was sold.
That’s the nature of this bitcoin range.
Related: Check our Ethereum Update here.
Technical Structure: Weak Momentum, Fragile Support
Daily Time Frame
On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to respect a descending structure.
Key observations:
- Lower highs continue to form
- RSI remains below neutral
- Volume expands on sell-offs, not rallies
The $66K–$67K zone has acted as short-term support. But it does not feel strong. If that breaks decisively, the next major zone sits around $60K.
Below that?
The conversation shifts toward $52K–$50K.
Some analysts even project a broader downside scenario toward $40K over the coming months. That would not be unusual historically during deeper bear phases.
4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour structure shows:
- Sharp impulsive drops
- Followed by choppy sideways flags
- Lower highs under dynamic resistance
That pattern typically signals continuation unless buyers reclaim key resistance clusters.
For bulls to regain control, BTC would need to:
- Reclaim $72K–$75K
- Hold above it
- And build structure, not just wick into it
Until then, the path of least resistance remains down or sideways.
Macro Overlay: Iran Tensions and Risk-Off Behavior
Geopolitical stress always complicates price action.
Rising tensions involving Iran, combined with shifting trade rhetoric and stronger dollar conditions, have pushed markets into defensive mode.
In theory, Bitcoin is often discussed as a hedge.
In practice, during early risk-off events, Bitcoin trades like a speculative asset.
Liquidity leaves first. Safety comes later.
That’s why we often see:
- Pre-war or pre-escalation weakness
- Followed by strong reversals once clarity arrives
If a major geopolitical event unfolds, watch volume carefully. Risk-off typically hits first. But once markets price in the shock, strong upside momentum can follow.
Right now, we’re still in the uncertainty phase.
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Why This Bitcoin Range Is So Difficult
This is not a clean trending environment.
Higher time frame:
- Oversold
- Extreme fear
- Due for a bounce
Mid time frame:
- Clear downtrend
- Resistance respected
- Weak support
Lower time frame:
- Tradable volatility
- Liquidity sweeps
- Fake breakouts both ways
That combination creates confusion.
It’s easy to get chopped up if you commit too heavily in one direction.
On-Chain and Sentiment Signals
Several metrics show stress:
- Realized profit/loss ratios compressing
- Slower network growth
- Stablecoin outflows tightening liquidity
- Deeply negative funding resets
Historically, these resets are constructive over time.
But they do not guarantee immediate upside.
Markets can stay weak longer than traders expect.
This bitcoin range reflects hesitation. Not capitulation. Not euphoria. Just uncertainty.
My Plan: How I’m Trading This Bitcoin Range
For Investors (6–18 Month View)
If you are less active and not trading daily:
This is a reasonable area to start dollar-cost averaging.
Downside risk scenario:
Upside potential:
Either:
- We form a bear market low and begin consolidation
- Or we bounce to $80K–$100K and create a better sell zone
One year from now, I believe Bitcoin is likely higher than today.
That makes structured DCA attractive.
Buy weekly. Or bi-weekly. Build exposure gradually. Avoid trying to time perfection.
Study our series of trading guides to increase your edge
For Active Traders
This is where it gets tricky.
You could:
- Long this region
- Place a stop below $60K
- Target $80K+
That’s a valid setup.
But mid time frames also support short arguments at resistance.
That’s why this is such a difficult spot.
Personally:
I’m trading very low time frames, which also increases my farming volume.
- I short at clear resistance levels
- I long liquidity sweeps
- I hold partial positions for breakout potential
- I cut quickly at signs of weakness
And I can tell you clearly:
Weakness is currently dominating.
Every rally feels heavy. Buyers lack conviction. Breakouts fail fast.
Until that changes, aggression must be controlled.
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Possible Scenarios From Here
- Bear Continuation
- Lose $60K
- Accelerate toward $52K
- Panic flush toward $40K
- Relief Rally
- Reclaim $72K
- Build structure
- Expand toward $82K
- Extended Range
- Chop between $60K–$75K
- Trap both sides
- Wait for macro clarity
All three remain viable.
That’s the reality of the current bitcoin range.
Final Words
Bitcoin is not broken.
But it is not strong either.
We are in a transitional zone where:
- Macro uncertainty is elevated
- Liquidity is tight
- Fear is present
- Momentum is weak
These environments punish overconfidence.
They reward patience and flexibility.
Whether we flush to $40K or bounce toward $100K, the key is staying positioned without getting emotionally attached to one narrative.
Trade small. Manage risk. Stay liquid.
And when this bitcoin range finally resolves, there will be plenty of opportunity on the other side.
If you enjoyed this blog, be sure to check out our guide on position sizing.
As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus below on Bybit. See you next time!
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