One Truth Social post sent Bitcoin from $68,500 to $71,400, liquidated $250M in crypto shorts, and pumped gold back to $4,400. Then Tehran said no talks ever happened.
Markets opened Monday deep in the red. Asia had already sold off hard overnight. South Korea’s Kospi down over 6%, Japan’s Nikkei losing nearly 5%. As four weeks of US-Israeli strikes on Iran continued to squeeze global oil supplies through a blocked Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin had slumped to a Sunday low of $67,200 amid the broader risk-off mood, drifting near $68,500 ahead of the US open. Gold, bid up aggressively as a safe-haven throughout the conflict, had pulled back sharply to $4,100 over the weekend. Then, just before the market open, a Truth Social post changed everything.
Trump announced that the US and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” over the last two days toward a “complete and total resolution” of hostilities in the Middle East. He added that he had ordered the military to postpone strikes on Iranian power plants for five days while talks continued.
The reaction across every major asset class was immediate and violent.
Related: Gold Oil Shock: Bitcoin, Metals and Energy React to Fed and Iran
The Short Squeeze Heard Around the World
Bitcoin’s move from $68,500 to $71,400 in the minutes following the post was not just a rally — it was a liquidation event. Crypto markets had been loaded with short positions, with traders betting that geopolitical uncertainty and oil-driven macro pressure would continue to weigh on risk assets. The sudden surge caught them entirely offside.
$250 million in crypto short positions were wiped out within hours. The mechanics were classic: leveraged short sellers on derivatives platforms were automatically liquidated as prices blew through margin levels, with each forced buy adding further upward pressure in a cascading short squeeze. S&P 500 futures swung from -1% to nearly +3%. Dow futures, which had been pointing to heavy losses, reversed to signal a 1,000-point open. Oil told the opposite story — WTI crude collapsed 8% to $90 a barrel on hopes the Strait of Hormuz blockade might soon end.
What made this event remarkable was not just its size, but its trigger — a single social media post about a negotiation that, as it turned out, one side of the supposed deal was about to flatly deny.
Gold’s Whipsaw Weekend
While crypto grabbed the headline, gold told an equally striking story. Spot gold had been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the conflict, surging as oil spiked above $100 and fears of a prolonged Middle East war mounted. But over the weekend it sold off sharply to $4,100 — a move analysts attributed to profit-taking, margin calls in energy positions, and growing speculation that a diplomatic off-ramp was forming.
When Trump’s post landed, gold snapped back to $4,400. The $300 recovery reflected the market’s uncertainty: if the war was genuinely ending, gold’s safe-haven premium should compress. The fact that it didn’t fully recover its highs suggested traders were hedging — not fully believing the announcement. As events would prove, that caution was well founded.
Gold is in an area where I’m interested in longs. Will do a full price update soon.
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Iran’s Response: A Flat Denial
The euphoria didn’t last. Within hours, Iranian officials pushed back — not with diplomatic nuance, but with outright denial. Tehran framed Trump’s pause on strikes as a tactic to lower energy prices and “buy time” for further military action. Iran’s foreign minister had already told CBS days earlier that Iran had never requested a ceasefire or negotiations, and was “ready to defend ourselves as long as it takes.”
The disconnect was total. Either back-channel conversations had occurred that Iran’s public officials were unaware of, or the claim of “productive talks” significantly overstated reality. Markets that had moved decisively on the assumption of genuine progress were left holding positions built on information that one party was actively denying.
This is not the first time it has happened. Earlier this month, Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted that the Navy had “successfully escorted an oil tanker” through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude crashed at its fastest pace in years, with an oil ETF shedding $84 million in market cap in ten minutes. The post was then deleted. The White House confirmed no such escort had taken place.
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Trade Update
We’ve been short on Bitcoin since $74,300 and already locked in half profits on the way down — so the position remains well in the green despite Monday’s chaos. Did we catch the $67,200 bottom? No. Honestly, the market still looked like the short had more room to run, and I was at a football match having a few beers. You can’t always be glued to the screen when tops or bottoms hit — that’s just trading.
Heading into Sunday night with BTC around $68,500, there was no obvious reason to close. Then around 5am the phone wouldn’t stop buzzing. One Trump tweet, $2,900 candle, $250M in shorts liquidated — including pressure on ours. We’re still in the short, still profitable, and keeping it open. In our view, tweet-driven pumps with no fundamental follow-through tend to retrace hard within 1-2 days. If Iran continues to deny the talks, if no ceasefire materialises, and if oil stays elevated, this rally has very little to stand on. We’ll be watching closely — but we’re not covering yet.
Why DCA Makes Sense Right Now
Missing the exact bottom at $67,200 while watching a football match is a perfect illustration of why dollar-cost averaging exists. In a macro environment this unpredictable — where a single Truth Social post can move Bitcoin $3,000 in under 30 minutes — trying to nail the perfect entry is largely a fool’s errand. A geopolitical war, an energy crisis, contradictory statements from both sides, and leveraged liquidations cascading through crypto markets every other day. Nobody is timing this cleanly. DCA removes the pressure of being right at a specific moment and replaces it with a simple, repeatable process: buy a fixed amount at regular intervals, let volatility average out your entry price over time, and avoid the anxiety of staring at your phone at 5am waiting for the bottom to confirm. In markets driven more by presidential tweets than fundamentals, consistency beats precision.
Where Do Markets Go From Here?
The honest answer is nobody knows — and that uncertainty is now a primary market driver in itself.
Four weeks into the conflict, Iran has survived the assassination of its Supreme Leader, sustained weeks of airstrikes, and maintained an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA has warned the energy crisis is worse than the oil shocks of the 1970s. There is no visible endgame.
For Bitcoin, the positioning is genuinely split. The $67,200 Sunday low confirmed that when risk-off dominates, BTC still trades as a risk asset. But Monday’s violent rally shows it remains one of the most sensitive instruments to macro regime-change narratives. A genuine ceasefire would unleash a risk-on surge that crypto would likely lead. Further escalation pushes it back toward — or below — recent lows.
Gold faces the mirror image. Its weekend selloff priced in some probability of resolution. With Iran denying any talks, that safe-haven premium isn’t going away. The $4,100–$4,400 range is now the key zone to watch.
The deeper concern is what this pattern represents. Whether by design or chaos, the flow of contradictory signals from Washington — de-escalation hints followed by strike threats, productive talks followed by Iranian denials — creates an environment where massive price swings can be triggered by a single post. For leveraged traders, the lesson from Monday is brutal: $250 million in short positions were liquidated on information that one of the two parties involved says simply isn’t true.
Final Note
As long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and the war drags on, expect this volatility to continue. The era of markets moving on Truth Social posts is very much with us — and until there is a verified, confirmed resolution, every rally and every selloff deserves serious skepticism.
If you enjoyed this blog, check out our recent blog on how to join the second Trump meme dinner in Florida.
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