Every Monday morning, the first chart I open is Bitcoin.
Before altcoins.
Before metals.
Before news headlines.
Bitcoin is still the king. It sets the tone for risk. The way it behaves tells me how aggressive I can be elsewhere, whether that’s in altcoins, farming strategies, or lately even metals like gold and silver.
When Bitcoin looks strong, opportunity spreads fast.
When it looks weak, everything else follows.
And right now, Bitcoin is uncomfortable to look at. That’s exactly why it deserves attention.
Bitcoin loses structure as volatility creeps back in
Bitcoin started the week under pressure, drifting toward the $86,000–$88,000 range after closing below levels that previously acted as support.
The important detail wasn’t the intraday spike lower.
It was the weekly close.
Once Bitcoin slipped below its mid-range, downside risk increased quickly. Liquidation zones opened beneath price, sentiment cooled, and dip-buyers became more selective.
Over the weekend alone, hundreds of millions in leveraged positions were wiped out. Longs absorbed the bulk of the damage, a sign that many traders were still positioned for upside that never arrived.
This wasn’t a single panic event.
It was slow pressure building up.
Is this a bottom, or just another pause lower?
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in a downward structure defined by lower highs and lower lows.
Short bounces are happening, but follow-through has been limited. Each recovery attempt struggles to reclaim broken support, which keeps confidence fragile.
Some traders believe this phase marks the end of a bottoming process. Others expect another shakeout before a real base forms.
Historically, both scenarios can be correct — but timing matters.
Markets rarely bottom when fear peaks instantly. More often, they bottom when exhaustion sets in and participation fades.
Macro pressure is stacking, not easing
This week brings multiple macro catalysts that traders can’t ignore.
Federal Reserve uncertainty
The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but markets care more about guidance than decisions.
Any hint about:
- future rate cuts
- tolerance for inflation
- political pressure on monetary policy
can move risk assets quickly.
Crypto doesn’t trade in isolation anymore. Bitcoin reacts to liquidity expectations, and right now those expectations remain cloudy.
Yen stress and global liquidity
Renewed discussion around Japanese yen intervention has also made traders cautious.
Historically, these episodes lead to:
- unwinding of carry trades
- tighter liquidity
- short-term pressure on risk assets
In previous cycles, Bitcoin sold off during these moments before forming meaningful bottoms. That process may not be finished yet.
Gold and silver are doing what Bitcoin isn’t
One of the clearest signals in this market is coming from outside crypto.
Gold is printing new highs.
Silver is moving aggressively higher.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains stuck.
In periods of geopolitical stress and political uncertainty, capital often flows to traditional safe havens first. That’s what we’re seeing again.
For now, Bitcoin is being treated like a risk asset, not a hedge.
Ironically, when Bitcoin is priced against gold or silver instead of the dollar, it looks historically cheap. Extreme divergences like this don’t last forever, but they can persist longer than most expect.
Short-term holders are under real pressure
On-chain data shows that newer market participants are feeling maximum discomfort.
Wallets that entered within the last six months are realizing losses at levels typically seen near major market lows. Loss-making transactions dominate, and the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has dropped significantly.
That said, one key signal is still missing.
In previous cycle bottoms, most holders were underwater. Today, the market is stressed, but not fully flushed. That suggests the bottoming process may still need time.
Selling is real, but it’s controlled
Despite the negativity, there’s an important nuance.
Selling pressure exists, but liquidity is absorbing it.
Order-book data shows sellers are active, yet price isn’t collapsing. This behavior is more consistent with:
- rebalancing
- risk reduction
- tactical positioning
rather than panic.
Markets often do their quiet accumulation work when price action feels slow, frustrating, and unrewarding.
Geopolitics adds another layer of uncertainty
Political risk has re-entered the spotlight.
Rising geopolitical tensions, renewed tariff threats, and the increasing probability of a U.S. government shutdown have all contributed to a defensive market tone.
In crypto, this typically leads to:
- leverage being reduced
- altcoins underperforming
- Bitcoin acting as a liquidity source
During previous shutdown scares, Bitcoin struggled while gold held firm. That pattern appears to be repeating.
Institutions remain patient
While retail sentiment is shaky, institutional behavior tells a different story.
Many professional investors view Bitcoin as undervalued at current levels. Instead of chasing price, they are holding positions, selectively buying dips, and preparing for longer-term recovery.
This gap between fear at the surface and patience underneath is often where opportunity forms.
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My trade setup: patience first
I don’t like chasing price.
For me, patience is the edge.
The weekly charts still look heavy, and macro pressure hasn’t cleared. Because of that, I’m not aggressively searching for long-term entries right now. When metals have momentum, it makes more sense to trade those instead of forcing crypto setups.
That said, there are signals worth watching.
Short-term relief is possible
From a wave-structure perspective, Bitcoin and majors like Solana appear to be completing a five-wave move down on lower timeframes.
That often opens the door for a relief move, not a trend reversal.
A three-wave bounce toward the $94,000 area would make technical sense. For lower-timeframe traders, this could be an area to bid carefully or to wait for one final liquidity sweep.
In practice, it’s often better to be in a trade and manage invalidation than to wait for a perfect entry and miss the move entirely.
Divergences are lining up
We’re seeing a clear daily bullish divergence, and even a thin but visible weekly bullish divergence.
When daily and weekly signals align, it can lead to two to three weeks of upside, even within a broader downtrend.
If you’re already long, this is a reminder not to exit too early. Use risk management and let the market decide.
$94,000 is my decision zone
If Bitcoin reaches $94,000, that’s an area I’ll monitor closely with my spot holdings.
If weakness shows up there, a deeper move lower remains possible, even toward the $60,000 range later on. I’m not interested in holding through unnecessary downside.
Capital preservation comes first.
AXIE trade update
We discussed Axie Infinity recently. The move toward $3 looked like a five-wave advance, so I waited for a pullback.
I had an alert set near $1.90, but real life happened. I was busy with the kids when the alert triggered and missed a clean 30% bounce in a single day.
No frustration. No revenge trade.
That’s part of the game.
My current alert is set at $1.69, which could line up with the bottom of an ABC corrective move. If price reaches that zone, I’ll reassess. If not, I move on.
There is always another trade.
Final words
This market isn’t easy.
It’s slow. It’s uncertain. And it’s testing patience.
But Bitcoin doesn’t need to be exciting to be important. It just needs to hold structure, absorb pressure, and let time do its work.
Whether the final low is already in or still ahead, this feels more like a transition than a collapse.
And when clarity finally returns, it usually does so faster than most expect.
That’s why I still start every week with the same chart.
If you enjoyed this blog, check out our blog on the price of DOGE.
As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus below on Bybit. See you next time!
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