I’ve been less active on the trading desk lately. Buying a house takes more effort than I imagined. Between lawyers, notaries, and construction checks, the hours just vanish. It made me miss the easy trade of $ASTER, but that’s the cost of life sometimes. Still, I sneak in the occasional trade on my phone. Today, let’s dive into the AVAX price action. Avalanche showed surprising strength while most coins looked weak, and that deserves a closer look.
Current Market Snapshot
Avalanche trades around $34.70 after defending the $32 support zone. Over the past 24 hours, it gained more than 2%. In a week, it’s up roughly 17%, and the monthly performance is an impressive +33%. While Bitcoin lingers near $112,000 and many altcoins slide, AVAX stands out.
Why AVAX Is Moving Against the Trend
Part of the buzz comes from ETF speculation. Grayscale is reportedly working to convert its Avalanche Trust into a spot ETF. Bitwise filed for an Avalanche ETF earlier this month too. After the SEC’s recent crypto-friendly signals, investors see a real chance for approval. ETF anticipation helped drive Bitcoin and Ethereum rallies earlier this year, so traders hope Avalanche will follow a similar path.
Whale Activity Fuels the Fire
Large holders, or whales, have entered with size. On-chain trackers spotted a wallet opening a 5x long worth over $17 million, showing nearly $1 million in quick gains. Another big player opened a 10x long for $2.2 million. These moves suggest that smart money expects more upside. When whales move like this, retail traders often follow, adding extra momentum.
Technical View: Breakout or Fakeout?
The AVAX chart shows price pressing against a key resistance zone near $37. Momentum indicators like RSI still have room before overheating. AVAX is holding above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, a sign of strength.
For short-term traders, watch the 4-hour chart. A clean close above $37 with rising volume could trigger a fast push toward $42–$44, matching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. A strong retest that holds near $37 would add confidence for a move to the next supply zone around $48.
- Trend Structure: Higher lows since late August form an ascending triangle. This pattern often breaks upward when momentum builds.
- Volume Profile: The volume node around $33 acts as a solid base. If price slips back, that area could provide a reliable reentry point.
- RSI Divergence: On the daily chart, RSI hovers near 62, leaving room for a run toward 70 without flashing overbought.
If the triangle breaks with a daily candle close above $37 and volume spikes, a swing entry with a stop around $34 could capture a potential move toward $44–$48. For more cautious traders, waiting for a retest of $37 as support can provide a lower-risk setup.
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Rotation Into Stronger Plays
Interestingly, capital appears to be rotating toward Avalanche and a few other mid-caps like Aster and AVNT. Coin Bureau highlighted how AVAX is moving higher while majors like Bitcoin and Ethereum cool off. This kind of divergence often signals where traders see opportunity.
Bigger Picture Targets
Some analysts see a mid-term technical target near $150 if the breakout holds over the coming months. That projection assumes steady support and continued whale interest. More immediate forecasts point to $40–$48 as achievable in the next few weeks, provided market sentiment stays positive.
My Take as a Trader
I managed a small position from my phone earlier this week. Entered near $33, trimmed a bit at $35, and now riding a partial size. I like to scale out when the price hits resistance and re-enter on retests. With the current ETF buzz and whale activity, I’m keeping an eye on $37 for a potential add if we get a solid breakout. My final target would be $70 for a larger swing trade, but I’m keeping my Stop loss at $28 for now.
Risks to Watch
Despite the strong setup, caution is key. The broader market is still in a corrective mood. If Bitcoin loses its footing, even strong performers like Avalanche can retrace quickly. Always set stops and manage size.
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Final Thoughts
Avalanche is showing it can shine when the market softens. ETF speculation, whale backing, and solid technicals support the bullish case. For now, AVAX price action suggests momentum is intact, but as always, stay flexible. In crypto, conditions can change faster than you can refresh a chart.
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