Bitcoin fell to $79,146 on Saturday, its lowest price since September 18. Thin weekend liquidity and about $400 million in liquidated longs pushed it through $80,000. By Monday morning, BTC was back above that level and trading near $80,200. So the sweep is done, but the real test comes Wednesday, when the Fed decides on rates.
I used the dip to re-enter longs. Below you’ll find what drove the move, this week’s macro calendar, the key chart levels, and my entries and first targets.
Why Bitcoin Dropped to 79K
The slide started before the weekend. Last week BTC traded above $84,000, then bled lower day after day. On Thursday, spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $635.6 million, their biggest outflow since June. Another $138 million left on Friday.
Oil added fuel. Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday, its highest close since April, after a week of tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Expensive oil keeps inflation sticky. In turn, sticky inflation keeps the Fed in hiking mode, and that weighs on anything risky, crypto included.
Friday’s daily candle also closed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since August. I explained why that line matters in the Bitcoin 50-day moving average post. Once that support failed, $80,000 was the last floor holding the range together.
Saturday finished the job. Weekend order books are thin, so modest selling moves price further than usual. BTC slipped under $80,000 for the first time since October 15 and tagged $79,146. Leveraged longs got flushed in a quick cascade, and the bounce came right after.
Why BTC Bounced Back Above 80K
Two things turned the mood on Sunday. First, Trump said the US would not strike Iran that day. Second, Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran, which raised hopes for talks. As a result, oil fell about 2% on Monday, with Brent sliding toward $114.
Bitcoin followed oil. It dipped once more to about $79,400 in early European trading, then climbed back to $80,000. Notably, buyers defended the same zone twice in 48 hours. That is exactly what I want to see at the bottom of a range.
Still, nothing is solved. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued over the weekend. Reports also suggest strikes on Iran could resume after the US midterms on November 3. For now, oil remains the main risk on every chart I trade.
Fed Week: The Macro Calendar
This is the busiest macro week of the month. Here is the schedule, day by day.
Tuesday, October 27: Israel votes, and the two-day Fed meeting starts. Any surprise in Israel feeds straight into oil.
Wednesday, October 28: The Fed announces its decision at 2:00 PM ET. Chair Kevin Warsh holds his press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings the same day.
Thursday, October 29: Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation drop at 8:30 AM ET. Later, Amazon reports, and the ECB also decides on rates.
Friday, October 30: The Bank of Japan closes out the week.
Crypto has its own catalysts too. Coinbase and Strategy both report earnings this week. Strategy shareholders also vote Wednesday on a new preferred dividend plan.
After that, the calendar stays loaded. OPEC+ meets on November 1, the midterms follow on November 3, and the Zcash NU7 upgrade goes live on November 5.
Will the Fed Hike on October 28?
Probably not. CME FedWatch puts a hold at about 90.6%, and traders on Polymarket price it near 93%. Rates would stay at 3.75% to 4.00% after September’s hike.
December is a different story. FedWatch shows roughly an 80% chance of a hike at that meeting. In other words, markets will trade Warsh’s tone, not the decision itself. A clear December signal could hit risk assets. A patient tone, on the other hand, makes a relief rally easier.
Politics matters here too. The decision lands six days before the midterm elections. Since 1990, the Fed has hiked within a week of an Election Day only once, in November 2022. That makes a surprise this week even less likely.
Thursday’s PCE print deserves more attention than usual. September CPI already came in hot at 3.7%. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast points to core PCE near 3.1%. A hotter number would cement December. Strong GDP would add to that, since the Atlanta Fed tracker sits around 3.5% for Q3.
Expect fast candles around 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday. Short-term Bitcoin bets are more popular than ever, and Polymarket’s 15-minute markets just logged a record $2.7 billion week. Fed days tend to bring exactly the whipsaw those traders chase.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Key Levels
For two weeks, BTC has ranged between roughly $80,000 and $84,000. This weekend, price dipped below that floor and snapped right back. Traders call that a sweep, or a deviation. Stops under the range get taken, and price returns inside. As long as BTC holds above $80,000, I read it as bullish.
Resistance levels:
- $81,000: where the weekend bounce stalled
- $81,800: the 50-day moving average, now overhead
- $82,000: the level many desks watch for stabilization
- $84,000: the top of the range
Support levels:
- $80,000: range floor and psychological level
- $79,100: the weekend low and sweep level
- $78,000: next liquidity pocket, with large bids reported between $78K and $79K
- $77,500 to $77,900: deeper support if $78K breaks
Sentiment is neutral. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 50, so there is no panic and no euphoria to fade.
The bull case is simple. BTC holds $80,000 through the Fed, reclaims the 50-day near $81,800, and rotates back toward $84,000. On the flip side, the bear case needs a daily close below $79,100. That would turn the sweep into a real breakdown and open the door to $78,000 and lower.
My Longs: Entries and First Targets
I re-entered longs around the lows. Sizes stay private, as always. Here are my entries and first targets.
BTC long from $80,466. First target at $84,900, just above the range top.
ETH long from $2,363.4. First target at $2,434.
SOL long from $101.41. First target at $103.34.
HYPE long from $75.59. First target at $79.80.
My altcoin longs come from Saturday morning, and all three survived the sweep. HYPE has done the heavy lifting and trades closest to its first target. ETH is the laggard and still sits below entry.
Each first target only closes a small piece of the position. Its real job is triggering the next step: once it fills, my stop moves to entry, and the trade carries zero risk. A winning trade should never turn into a losing one.
Why long into a Fed decision? Because the setup is clean. Price swept the lows, reclaimed the range, and a hold is almost fully priced in. If Warsh surprises, my stops do their job. If he doesn’t, these entries sit at the bottom of a two-week range.
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Final Words
Bitcoin swept $79K over the weekend and reclaimed $80K by Monday. ETF outflows, $116 oil and a lost 50-day average set up the drop. Then thin weekend liquidity did the rest. Diplomacy with Iran cooled oil, and buyers stepped in.
Now the focus shifts to Wednesday. A Fed hold is close to certain, so Warsh’s December signal is the real event. After that, Thursday’s PCE and GDP data decide whether the bounce has legs.
I’m long BTC, ETH, SOL and HYPE from the range lows. Above $81,800, the sweep was a gift. Below $79,100, I reassess.
FAQ
Why did Bitcoin drop to 79K?
ETF outflows, Brent oil near $117 and a close below the 50-day moving average weakened the chart. Thin weekend liquidity then triggered about $400 million in long liquidations, taking BTC to $79,146 on Saturday.
When is the October 2026 Fed decision?
Wednesday, October 28, at 2:00 PM ET. Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
Will the Fed raise rates in October?
Markets say no. CME FedWatch prices a hold at about 90%, while a December hike is priced near 80%.
What are the key Bitcoin levels right now?
Support sits at $80,000, $79,100 and $78,000. Resistance sits at $81,000, the 50-day average near $81,800, and $84,000.
What macro data comes after the Fed this week?
Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation land on Thursday, October 29, at 8:30 AM ET. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon also report earnings this week.
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