Crypto feels hot again. You can sense it everywhere. Group chats that went quiet for months are firing off charts at 2 AM. Friends who swore off coins in the spring are sliding into my DMs with the same question: “Did I miss the bottom?” People are rotating into the riskiest corners of the market, and old meme coins that should have stayed dead are waking up with double-digit green candles.
So, is the bear market over? Nobody knows for sure, including me. What I can do is walk you through the scenarios I am weighing, what macro is doing, how I am positioning my own money, and why I am not jumping into a leveraged trade this week. Let’s get into it.
Did the Four-Year Cycle Get Front-Run?
The classic four-year cycle theory points to a bottom around October. Many traders have been sitting in stablecoins waiting for exactly that window. Here is the catch: August is usually an ugly month in a bear market. Low volume, thin liquidity, and a steady bleed while everyone is on holiday.
This August looks nothing like that. I wrote my August outlook expecting chop and built my DCA plan around it. Instead, the month has been very green. Bitcoin reclaimed the $80K area and risk appetite came back fast.
One running theory explains this neatly. The cycle got front-run. Enough capital expected an October low that the trade became crowded, so the market moved early and left that sidelined capital stranded. Everybody waiting for the dip becomes the fuel that buys every small pullback. If that is what happened, the bear may already be behind us, and the people holding cash for October will end up chasing.
I find this plausible. Markets love to punish the consensus trade. Still, it is one theory, not a confirmed fact.
Or Is This a Fakeout?
The second scenario is less fun. Big rallies in a bear market are common, and they exist to trap early bulls. The move from the lows to $80K came with a violent short squeeze, which I covered in this post on the Bitcoin squeeze and the Hyperliquid all-time high. Squeezes create sharp moves, but they do not always create lasting trends.
The scenario I keep in the back of my mind looks like this. Price holds the $80K range long enough for latecomers to buy the breakout. Leverage builds up. Then a catalyst hits, the range fails, and Bitcoin grinds down to a new low below $50K while the freshly trapped longs get liquidated on the way.
That would be a textbook fakeout. If you want to understand how these traps work and how to spot them before they spring, read my guide on breakouts versus fakeouts. The short version: a breakout without follow-through and without volume confirmation deserves suspicion, not excitement.
Both scenarios remain on the table. That is the honest answer.
Macro Leans Positive, but It Only Takes One Tweet
Zooming out, the macro picture currently leans in the bulls’ favor. Rate expectations have softened, liquidity conditions look friendlier than they did in spring, and institutional products keep expanding. The Grayscale Zcash ETF amendment is a small but telling example of how far the regulated product pipeline has come, even for privacy coins that were untouchable a few years ago.
Now the cold shower. We all know how this market behaves. A single bad tweet can erase a week of gains. Escalation around Iran can trigger a risk-off wave across every asset class. A hawkish surprise from the Fed, a delayed regulatory decision, or a surprise enforcement action can flip sentiment in an hour. Crypto remains the most reactive market in the world, and macro tailwinds do not make it predictable. They just tilt the odds slightly.
My Answer: DCA Instead of Guessing the Bottom
Because I cannot tell you whether we are at the end of a bear or in an early bull, I stopped trying to time it. Today I completed my second DCA buy of the plan. Maybe that was a high buy. Maybe it was a low one. We will only know at the end of the year.
What I do know is this. Buying small amounts twice per week for 10 to 12 weeks is a lower-variance move than trying to nail the exact bottom with one big order. Poker taught me to respect variance, and this approach keeps it manageable. If the bear is done, I capture the average price of the early bull. If we get the fakeout, I keep buying lower and my average improves. Either way, I am fine.
You already know my coins from our trading content: BTC, SOL, HYPE, ZEC and NEAR. I will spare you the details here, since I have covered the reasoning for each many times. All I will say is that DCA is my way. Slow, boring, consistent.
Is It a Good Time to Farm Airdrops?
It always is. Bear or bull, the farming never stops, and I expect at least one big airdrop to land before the end of the year.
Earlier this cycle I showed you how to keep airdrop farming cheap during a bear market, when fees were low and nobody cared. Right now the calculus has shifted a little. Activity is up, so the farming feels more risk-on and the capital you deploy swings harder with the market. That is my read. This is my strategy, though, and you do you.
The projects I am actively farming right now:
Let one of these retire me, please.
The Trump Signal
You may have seen the rumours about Trump launching a new token on Robinhood Chain. I broke down what we know about the rumoured Trump token when the chatter started.
Funny thing about the last time. When the TRUMP meme coin launched, it acted as a massive liquidity vacuum. Capital poured into one token, the rest of the market dumped, and it took weeks for altcoins to slowly recover. In hindsight, that launch marked the local top.
Could history repeat itself? If a new Trump token hits Robinhood Chain during a euphoric phase, I would treat it as a warning sign rather than a reason to ape. Big liquidity events at the peak of excitement tend to end the party, not extend it. Keep that pattern in mind while everyone else is celebrating.
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Final Words
Right now I am not eager to jump into a trade. Trading after a move this big is always hard, because the chart has no structure yet. Every level is fresh, the squeeze has distorted the order book, and the easy money from the bounce has already been made. I would rather let price build a range and show me some support and resistance before I commit.
There is also a practical reason. I fly to Amsterdam next Tuesday, and I do not want to hold a position that needs close monitoring while I am on the road. DCA buys fit that schedule. Leveraged trades do not.
So, is the bear market over? Maybe. The front-run theory is credible, macro is helping, and the energy is real. The fakeout risk is equally real. My plan works in both worlds, which is exactly why I chose it. Stay patient, keep your size sane, and let the market prove itself before you believe it.
FAQ
Is the bear market over in August 2026? Nobody can confirm that yet. A green August and a Bitcoin push to $80K suggest the cycle may have bottomed early, but a fakeout with a drop below $50K remains possible. I am treating both scenarios as live.
What is the four-year cycle theory? It is the idea that Bitcoin follows a roughly four-year pattern tied to the halving, with major bottoms and tops arriving at predictable points. Many traders expected this cycle’s low around October, which is why a strong August has people asking whether the bottom got front-run.
What is a fakeout in crypto trading? A fakeout is a breakout that fails. Price moves above a key level, attracts buyers, then reverses and traps them. They are common in bear markets and often precede a new low.
Why DCA instead of buying the bottom? Timing an exact bottom is close to impossible. Spreading buys over 10 to 12 weeks reduces variance and guarantees you capture the average price of the period, whether the market goes up or down from here.
Which coins are in my DCA plan? BTC, SOL, HYPE, ZEC and NEAR. Each pick has its own write-up in our trading content.
Should I farm airdrops right now? Yes. Farming works in every market condition, and I expect at least one major airdrop before year end. Just be aware that farming in a risk-on phase exposes more of your capital to market swings.
Why could a new Trump token be bearish? The original TRUMP launch pulled liquidity out of the broader market and marked a local top. A repeat during a euphoric phase could do the same.
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