Senate negotiations over the CLARITY Act have produced new customer safeguards and an ethics agreement, raising Polymarket’s odds of enactment this year to 43% as lawmakers pursue a bipartisan floor vote.
Summary
- John Thune sees a good chance of reaching a bipartisan CLARITY Act agreement.
- Democrats secured stronger customer protections, while lawmakers agreed on ethics provisions.
- Polymarket traders place the bill’s chance of becoming law in 2026 at 43%.
CNBC reported that Democratic senators secured additional customer protection measures during negotiations over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, although unresolved details have continued to delay the release of the Senate’s final text.
Speaking to CNBC on Monday, Coinbase Vice Chair Ryan VanGrack described the revised protections as giving the bill “more teeth.” According to VanGrack, the changes address gaps in the current rules governing digital asset users, but he did not explain what requirements lawmakers had added.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also voiced cautious confidence that Republicans and Democrats can reach an agreement. In comments shared through an X post, Thune said there was a “good chance” of a deal, while warning that the talks could still take a different course.
Lawmakers are working with Democratic senators to secure enough support to bring the legislation to the floor, according to Thune. The majority leader has previously indicated that he wants a bipartisan agreement before committing valuable Senate floor time to the bill.
Republicans control 53 Senate seats but would need support from at least seven Democrats to reach the 60 votes generally required to overcome a filibuster. That arithmetic has given Democratic negotiators considerable influence over the customer protection and ethics sections of the legislation.
Bipartisan support has moved closer
An agreement covering elected officials’ involvement in digital assets has removed one of the main obstacles in the negotiations, crypto.news reported. Democratic lawmakers had pressed for rules addressing potential conflicts connected to President Donald Trump’s crypto interests and the participation of public officials in the sector.
According to Punchbowl News, Trump accepted the inclusion of ethics provisions, helping negotiations advance after weeks of disagreement. The report did not publish the full language, and the final restrictions will remain unclear until senators release the updated bill.
Senator Kevin Cramer offered further details about the enforcement structure, stating that negotiators had reached an agreement on the ethics language. Under the approach described by Cramer, the Justice Department would enforce the provision instead of leaving enforcement to individual state attorneys general.
Cramer argued that the bill was becoming clearer as lawmakers resolved each disputed issue. Commenting on the progress, the North Dakota Republican said, “I think we’re almost there.”
At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Congress to complete the legislation before senators leave Washington for their August recess. Bessent described lawmakers as being at the “1-yard line,” indicating that only a limited number of disputes remained in the negotiations.
Coinbase has presented the customer protection concessions as evidence that Democratic participation has changed the legislation rather than simply supplying Republican sponsors with the votes they need. VanGrack told CNBC that Democrats had used the process to strengthen protections for people who hold or trade digital assets.
Earlier Senate work has already included rules governing customer property, fair and transparent pricing, advertising standards and fraudulent conduct. A draft published by the Senate Agriculture Committee also requires digital commodity brokers, dealers and exchanges to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, subject to exemptions written into the proposal.
The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its portion of the market structure package in January. Committee Chair John Boozman stated at the time that the legislation built on the bipartisan, House-passed CLARITY Act and included provisions negotiated with Senate Democrats.
Final text still controls the timeline
Despite the latest agreements, CNBC reported that the Senate has not released the completed legislative text. Ethics rules remain part of the delay, leaving lawmakers, crypto companies and consumer groups unable to assess the precise restrictions or enforcement powers under discussion.
Thune has said he hopes to bring the CLARITY Act to the Senate floor before August, but his comments indicate that scheduling depends on Democrats committing enough votes. A floor vote without that support could stall the bill before the chamber considers amendments or final passage.
The House has already approved its version of the CLARITY Act, while the Senate is preparing its own text. Any differences between the two chambers would have to be resolved before Congress could send a common version to Trump for his signature.
The legislation seeks to establish federal rules for digital asset markets and clarify the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC. Senate Agriculture Committee materials show that its portion would give the CFTC authority over digital commodity intermediaries and impose registration, custody, anti-fraud, and customer property requirements.
Traders on Polymarket currently assign a 43% probability that Trump will sign the CLARITY Act into law during 2026, down from the 47% figure cited earlier in the negotiations. Prediction-market odds can change quickly and do not establish whether Congress will meet Thune’s preferred timetable.
For now, the ethics agreement and Democratic customer protections have improved the path to a bipartisan vote, but the unpublished text and Senate calendar continue to determine whether the bill can reach the floor before the August recess.
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