XRP has dropped nearly 70 percent from its July 2025 high of around $3.66, trading near $1.12 by early July 2026. That kind of drawdown tests even patient holders. But a growing number of chart watchers say the pain might be masking something bigger playing out underneath.
The Trend Line That Keeps Bouncing
An analyst pointed to a long term ascending trend line that XRP has followed since 2020, one that has already survived three major tests. Each time the price fell back to touch that rising support line, it bounced hard. The first came in April 2020 near 16 cents, followed by a run to nearly $2 a year later. The second came in mid 2022, followed by a climb toward 94 cents. The third arrived in late 2024, setting up the move to last year’s all time high.
Why the Fourth Test Matters
Now XRP may be approaching a fourth test of that same trend line, somewhere in the 74 to 80 cent range. That number matters because of what happened the last time XRP hit a fourth retest on an earlier version of this same structure. Back in February 2017, XRP bottomed near half a cent after three earlier trend line defenses going back to 2013. What followed was a climb to $3.31 by January 2018, a move of nearly 63,000 percent.
A Repeat Is Unlikely, But Not the Point
Nobody serious is predicting XRP repeats that exact percentage gain. The asset is far larger now, the market is more mature, and each retest since 2020 has already produced smaller percentage moves than the one before it. That is normal for an asset that has grown from a fraction of a cent into a multi billion dollar market. Smaller does not mean insignificant. Even a partial repeat of past cycles could still represent a major move from current prices.
The Level Everyone Is Watching
What matters most right now is whether XRP holds that 74 to 80 cent zone if it gets there. A successful defense would strengthen the case that the broader structure remains intact. A break below it, with no reclaim, would weaken the comparison to past cycles significantly.
Markets do not repeat perfectly, and old patterns fail more often than headlines suggest. But the setup gives holders a specific level to watch instead of reacting purely to short term price swings, and that distinction alone is shaping how traders are approaching the next few months.
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