What a week for Bitcoin.
Seven days ago, BTC was grinding in fear. Sentiment was at extreme lows. The Iran conflict had been capping every rally for over a month, and traders were either scared or exhausted. Then one Truth Social post changed everything.
The Ceasefire That Flipped the Market
On Tuesday night, Trump confirmed a two-week U.S.–Iran ceasefire. Bitcoin jumped from the high $60Ks straight to $72,700 in hours. Oil dumped over 25%. And nearly $600 million in leveraged crypto futures got wiped — the majority of those were shorts.
That’s not organic buying. That’s a short squeeze.
The move was violent and fast. And that’s exactly why I didn’t chase it.
Why I’ve Been Sitting Out BTC
Around the Iran deadline and ceasefire announcement, I stepped back from Bitcoin entirely. Big macro events like that distort price. You get wicks, you get squeezes, you get emotional candles — and then price needs time to actually find its level.
I wanted to see where BTC settled, not where it spiked.
Right now my only active crypto position is a $DOGE long that I’ve been holding since last week — a setup I covered in detail here. Everything else is cash. Watching. Waiting.
Patience is a position.
What the Market Actually Looks Like Right Now
BTC is trading around $72,000 this morning as of April 10. It’s grinding higher with higher highs and higher lows — a clean short-term uptrend on the surface.
But the internals are telling a different story.
Bitfinex margin long positions are still sitting above 80,000 BTC — near the highest level in over two years. Historically, that’s been a contrarian signal. These leveraged longs tend to pile in during stress and unwind as price rises. The fact that they haven’t been reduced yet is a yellow flag.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index — which tracks whether U.S. institutions are net buyers — is oscillating between premium and discount. No conviction. No sustained institutional bid driving this move.
The squeeze was real. The follow-through conviction? Less clear.
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The Bitcoin Short Trade Setup I’m Watching
Here’s where it gets interesting.
I’m not looking to buy this rally. I’m looking for a short entry in the $75,500–$76,000 zone.
That level has been significant resistance going back several months. It’s not arbitrary. It’s where price has previously stalled and rejected. If BTC grinds up into that zone on thinning volume and weakening momentum, I want to be a seller.
The trigger isn’t just price though. I need to see orderflow confirm at that level. Rejection candles, absorption, a shift in delta — something that tells me sellers are actually showing up and not just a blip.
Entry zone: $75,500–$76,000 TP1: ~$70,000 — taking 65% of the position off there Runner: leaving the remaining 35% open below $70K
The thesis is straightforward. The ceasefire is two weeks long. Nothing is resolved geopolitically. The macro backdrop hasn’t changed — no Fed rate cuts expected, inflation still running hot, and oil can spike right back the moment headlines shift again.
A relief rally into key resistance is a shorting opportunity. Not a breakout to chase.
What Would Invalidate This Setup
I’m not married to this idea. A few things would make me step aside entirely.
A clean daily close above $76K with strong volume changes the picture. At that point, the resistance has been absorbed and the path toward $80K opens up. That’s not a short anymore — that’s a breakout.
Also worth watching in the coming weeks: the Bitcoin 2026 Conference in Las Vegas (April 27–29) often brings institutional announcements. And the final FOMC meeting under Powell (April 28–29) is a live event — any hint at rate cuts would be a significant tailwind for risk assets including BTC.
If those catalysts hit while price is holding above $76K, the short thesis gets shelved.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin went from extreme fear to a $72K relief rally in 48 hours. The move was driven by a geopolitical headline, not a structural shift in demand. That matters.
I’m not bearish long-term on BTC. But right now, the setup I want is a short — not a long.
$75.5–76K is the level. Orderflow is the confirmation. And until price gets there, I’m in cash on Bitcoin and holding my DOGE long.
Sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t take yet.
Farm these DEX airdrops while you’re trading.
For Long-Term Holders: Keep Stacking
If you’re not actively trading any of this, the noise shouldn’t move you.
Extreme fear has historically been where the best Bitcoin accumulation happens. A Fear & Greed reading pinned between 8 and 14 for over a month — while price didn’t collapse — is actually a strong signal for long-term buyers. The floor is holding. Institutions are buying. The sentiment just hasn’t caught up yet.
Dollar-cost averaging cuts through all of it. Fixed amount, regular schedule, don’t try to call the bottom. You don’t need to be right on timing. You just need to keep showing up.
If your long-term conviction in Bitcoin is intact, these levels are an opportunity. Not a reason to panic. Don’t let a few weeks of war headlines shake you out of a multi-year position.
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