Bitcoin price has rallied for eight consecutive days for the first time in over two years, typically a signal of strengthening momentum. The price touched an intraday high near $76,000, supported by a sharp rise in volume from $22 billion to over $56 billion. While this move hints at a potential trend shift, confirmation remains lacking, as BTC continues to trade well below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $93,000 and $98,000, which are the crucial resistance zones.
Notably, Bitcoin is just 15% above the key $60,000 support while still over 30% away from major resistance. Until the price reclaims this range, the broader structure remains weak, with a continued risk of a pullback toward $60,000.
Top Catalyst Which Can Move BTC Price This Week
The bullish weekly close had raised hopes of an extended ascending trend that strengthened when the price reached $76,000. With the volatility being on the rise, here are the top 4 catalysts that may impact the BTC price this week.
- FOMC Decision (March 18-19): The FOMC decision is underway with more than a 99% chance of no rate cuts this month. However, the markets may be largely dependent on the Fed Chair’s stance. If Jerome Powell hints at hawkishness because of oil-driven inflation, markets could sell off hard.
- Quadruple Witching (March 20): There are four types of derivatives expiring today: stock index futures, single stock options, options on stock index futures and stock index options. Everyone has to close, roll or exercise their contracts at once. Massive forced buying and selling is expected with a huge volume spike.
- On top of the stock market quadruple witching, Quarterly Bitcoin options are set to expire on March 20, and CME Bitcoin & Ethereum futures are set to expire on March 27. The derivative data shows a heavy open interest cluster between $74K and $75K, raising concerns.
- Basel 3 Vote (This Week): The Bitcoin Policy Institute and crypto treasury companies are lobbying for softer rules at this week’s vote. If rules soften, US banks can custody at scale, which may further lead to massive institutional capital unlock. If nothing happens, status quo, Banks still can’t touch Bitcoin in any meaningful way.
- Oil and the War: Oil is back above $100 as the war situation worsens. This can be considered as a shift, and if oil pushes toward the $120 clubbed with FOMC & Witching, markets may bleed hard.
Overall, two scenarios emerge: if the BTC price holds above $75,000 through Friday’s volatility, a push to $80,000 could follow, and a recovery to $95,000-$98,000 may begin. On the other hand, a rejection may push the price below $70,000, which may further push Bitcoin into a bear-market chop.
What’s Next? Is BTC Price Heading to $50,000?
Bitcoin’s recent price action shows a clear recovery from the February lows near the $60,000 zone, forming a short-term ascending channel. The price has climbed back toward the $74,000–$75,000 resistance range, which aligns with a previous breakdown level. However, this move appears corrective rather than impulsive, as the broader structure still reflects a series of lower highs and sustained weakness since the rejection near the $95,000 zone. Volume has not shown a strong expansion during this recovery, suggesting the rally may lack conviction.
This raises the possibility that the current move is a dead cat bounce, where the price temporarily recovers before resuming the broader downtrend. If Bitcoin fails to break and hold above the $75,000 resistance, selling pressure could re-enter, pushing the price back toward the $60,000 support. A breakdown below this level may accelerate losses, potentially dragging BTC price toward the $50,000 region or even lower, aligning with the projected downside path indicated in the chart.
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