As the US stock market rolls over and gold continues to lose ground, Bitcoin is still climbing higher. However, after coming to the top of its bear flag, the $BTC price may be about to be rejected. Will this occur, or is it possible that Bitcoin could buck the trend of mainstream asset sell-offs?
$BTC price rejection taking place?
Source: TradingView
The short-term chart above does tell a bearish story. For all the world, this looks like a rejection is going to take place from the top of the bear flag. The 4-hour Stochastic RSI (momentum indicator) has its indicator lines at the top, and this is the same for the 8-hour, 12-hour, and even the daily. A couple of small wicks up towards the top of the bear flag also tell the story that the buyers are becoming exhausted. Horizontal resistance at $73,600 is holding firm, and it looks as though the $BTC price is on its way back down from here.
One little ray of sunshine is that the bulls were able to make a higher high. If a higher low is achieved above $65,700, another attempt at the top of the bear flag could be undertaken by the bulls.
Nevertheless, a new leg down is probably about to take place next, and it just remains to be seen whether the upward trend that started in early February will hold.
There is still the possibility of course that there could still be one last thrust from the bulls that could take the price to the top trendline of the bear flag. However, with an inverted pin bar candle at the top of this upward leg, all the signs are there for the next corrective phase, which could even take the price right back to the bottom of the bear flag.
Current bear flag copying first bear flag?
Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows the big descending channel which encloses the two bear flags. This also illustrates that the macro bear trend is still in force.
The $BTC price has cut above the 50-day SMA, like it did in the first bear flag. It now remains to be seen whether the price will be able to avoid coming back below, just like it also did in the upper bear flag.
The 100-day SMA is keeping very closely to the upper trendline of the descending channel. If $BTC manages to get back to the top of the flag after this current potential reversal period, the 100-day SMA could be there once again to help the bears prevent a breakout.
At the bottom of the chart, the RSI reveals the two ascending channels that correspond to the two bear flags. As things stand, it looks a lot more likely that the current ascending channel will break to the downside. This would probably signal the next big leg down for Bitcoin.
Two bear targets in weekly time frame
Source: TradingView
The weekly view for the $BTC price reveals two possible targets for the next potential leg down. If we measure the move from the bottom of the first bear flag down to the bottom of the next, the measured move is down to $48,000. However, if we take the move from the price pivot high down to the bottom of the second bear flag, the measured move would stretch to $40,000. Either way, there is a good likelihood of a big move coming to the downside.
As if to immediately repudiate this prediction, the weekly Stochastic RSI indicators are at the brink of signalling big upside price momentum. Once the red line gets above the 20.00 level, this is what will happen. That said, if the price action falls down from here, these indicator lines could reverse back down.
Finally, the RSI indicator line is just showing its head above the descending trendline. Once again though, negative price action would see this indicator line fall back down.
So in conclusion, all appears set for this next potential leg down. Is this set in stone? Is there a possibility that the bulls could totally outwit the market? Absolutely, but the odds do look to be against them. This week’s price action should throw a lot more light on the situation.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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