Even with war headlines and macro uncertainty everywhere, this has still been a decent market for scalpers and range traders.
That may sound strange, but it is true. You do not always need a clean trend to make money. You just need structure. And Bitcoin has been giving us that.
We talked about shorting the upper end of the range around 72k. Yes, we got stopped out a few times between 69k and 72k. Still, once Bitcoin finally broke down from that zone, we caught the real move and rode it down to around 66.5k before closing. Not the absolute bottom of the weekend, but close enough.
Then came the bounce. Sadly, we were having beers and watching football, so we did not catch the long back toward 69k. Fair enough. You cannot catch every move. The goal is to stay sharp and wait for the next setup.
And that setup may be coming soon.
Oil also printed a crazy move. It ran from around $90 to near $120 before cooling back toward $100 after reports that G7 countries were discussing a coordinated emergency reserve release. Brent briefly traded near $119.50 before pulling back.
If you read our oil blog last week when crude was around $82, that was a very nice move to catch.
Bitcoin is back inside the range
That is the key message right now.
The breakout above 74k failed. Bitcoin has slipped back into the same broad range, and price almost tagged the middle of that range yesterday. So for now, this is still a market that rewards patience more than blind conviction.
That failed breakout matters. It shows that bulls still have work to do. At the same time, the fact that Bitcoin did not completely fall apart while oil exploded higher is also worth noting.
That is why several traders are calling this price action stronger than it looks. Bitcoin has been holding up better than many expected given the backdrop of surging oil, falling equities, and inflation fears. Some market reports have also pointed to Bitcoin outperforming gold, silver, and major U.S. stock indexes since the Middle East conflict escalated, though that relative strength should still be viewed inside the context of a broader range, not a confirmed breakout.
So yes, the failed move above resistance was bearish in the short term. But the market is not trading like a total collapse either.
The chart below is the range I envision in the foreseeable future.
Why oil matters so much for Bitcoin this week
Oil is the macro story.
The latest spike to $120 was driven by the Middle East conflict and fears around supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz. That sent crude sharply higher and pushed traders to rethink inflation risk again. G7 officials are now discussing a possible 300 to 400 million barrel emergency release, which helped cool prices from the highs, at least for now.
For Bitcoin, this matters because higher oil can feed inflation expectations.
If inflation expectations rise, markets start pricing a more cautious Federal Reserve. That usually means tighter financial conditions, a stronger dollar, and more pressure on risk assets. Even if Bitcoin has been holding up well, it still trades inside that bigger macro machine.
This is why this week’s U.S. data matters more than usual. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the February CPI report is due on Wednesday, March 11 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
That print may not fully reflect the latest oil shock yet. Still, traders will watch it closely for signs that inflation is already proving sticky again.
Death cross talk is back
This is the part that keeps traders cautious.
Bitcoin failed to reclaim a key long-term trend area into the weekly close, and there is now more talk about fresh death crosses on higher time frames. On paper, that is bearish. It tells traders that momentum is still weak and that any relief rally could run into trouble unless a stronger catalyst shows up.
That said, I would not make this blog all about the death cross.
Why? Because in markets like this, death crosses often get talked about the most right when everyone is already nervous. They matter, but price structure matters more. And right now, price structure still says range.
So yes, respect the bearish signal. But do not let it be the only thing you look at.
Bitcoin is showing more strength than many expected
This is where the story gets interesting.
Despite the failed breakout, Bitcoin has not seen the kind of panic selloff many expected from a market facing war headlines, oil spikes, and macro stress. Some analysts see that as a sign that the market may be cleaning up.
The logic is simple. A lot of leverage has already been flushed out. Crowded positioning has been punished. And when a market stops reacting badly to bad news, traders start paying attention.
That does not mean the bottom is confirmed.
It does mean Bitcoin is acting more stable than many feared.
There are also signs that larger investors are not rushing to dump into exchanges at these levels. That supports the idea that the current zone is still attracting interest, even if short-term sentiment remains shaky.
My trade view right now
Currently, I am neutral on Bitcoin.
In this 60k to 72k range, I have been stopped out a couple of times. That is just part of range trading. Still, I caught the bigger moves in both directions, so overall the PnL is positive and I feel good about how the market is setting up.
Right now, the breakout above failed. We are back in range. And after almost touching the middle of the range yesterday, the next move matters.
Personally, I am watching 70k to 72.3k as a potential short zone.
On the downside, I am watching 65k, 62k, and 60k as potential long areas.
That is the plan. No drama. No forced prediction. We just play it as we go.
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What traders should watch today
The first thing is oil.
If oil starts ripping again, macro fear could come straight back into the market. If crude cools down further after the G7 reserve headlines, that may help risk sentiment stabilize a bit. Brent’s move above $100 and near $120 was one of the biggest macro shocks traders had to price in at the start of the week.
The second thing is Bitcoin’s reaction near the top of the range.
If BTC pushes back into 70k to 72.3k and gets rejected again, that would keep the range-trading idea alive. If bulls reclaim that area with real strength, then the failed breakout narrative starts to fade.
The third thing is the CPI print on Wednesday.
Markets are already on edge, and inflation data could easily become the next catalyst.
Also, one small trading note: because the U.S. moved to daylight saving time on Sunday, March 8, Wall Street regular hours still open at 9:30 a.m. New York time, which means the open is effectively one hour earlier than before.
Final words
This is still a trader’s market.
The breakout failed, but Bitcoin has not broken down in a way that screams panic. Oil is the main macro risk. Inflation data is coming. And the chart is still giving range traders levels to work with.
So for now, patience makes sense.
I am neutral on BTC here. I like 70k to 72.3k as a short zone. And I like 65k, 62k, and 60k as possible long areas.
We do not need to predict every move. We just need to react well when price gets where it matters.
That is the game for today.
If you enjoyed this blog, check out our last blog about the love story of AI and crypto.
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