Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,000, and the market feels stuck between fear and opportunity.
Last Sunday I caught a clean short. I closed it last night below $63K. Then this morning we got a pump. Sometimes it works out like that. Not always.
That is trading.
You need to be online. You need alerts at key levels. And most importantly, you need responsible stop losses. No ego. No revenge trades.
Right now, it looks like BTC may stay in a range for the foreseeable future. And for range traders, this environment is actually attractive for range traders.
Today we break down the latest Bitcoin news, on-chain developments, macro signals, and my current trade setup.
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Heavy Bitcoin Accumulation Between $60K and $70K
On-chain data from Glassnode shows something important.
More than 400,000 BTC were accumulated between $60,000 and $70,000 during the latest downturn.
Supply in that band increased from roughly 997,000 BTC on January 1 to about 1.43 million BTC today. That’s a 43% surge in coins with a cost basis inside this zone.
What does this mean?
More than 8% of non-exchange circulating supply now sits between $60K and $70K. That creates a dense ownership cluster. In simple terms: a lot of investors bought here.
That often turns into a battlefield zone.
Below $60K you may trigger pain.
Above $70K you move into a thin liquidity area.
The $70K–$80K zone has previously been described as an “air pocket.” During the recent selloff, BTC dropped from $80K to $70K in just five days. That tells you how fast price can move through low-volume regions.
From a Bitcoin range trading strategy perspective, this makes $60K–$70K the core battleground.
Coinbase Premium Turns Positive
Another signal that caught attention: the Coinbase premium flipped back above zero.
For months, it was negative.
Why does that matter?
Coinbase is heavily used by US institutional buyers. A positive premium suggests domestic demand is slightly outpacing offshore selling pressure.
However, context matters.
A small, short-lived premium flip does not confirm a trend reversal. We need:
- Sustained positive spread
- Rising open interest aligned with strength
- Exchange inflows that confirm accumulation
If those line up, the signal gains credibility. If not, it was just temporary arbitrage noise.
For now, it is encouraging. But not decisive.
If you’re considering buying this dip, read our guide on a DCA strategy first. It might be more profitable for you!
Macro Pressure: Iran Tensions and Trump Tariffs
Markets are still digesting geopolitical tension between the US and Iran. At the same time, renewed discussions around tariffs linked to US President Donald Trump are adding uncertainty.
When traditional markets wobble, crypto feels it quickly.
We have already seen BTC dip below $64K multiple times during fear spikes. That tells us liquidity is thin and conviction is fragile.
Risk sentiment still dominates.
Strategy Hits 100th Bitcoin Purchase
Bitcoin treasury giant Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) completed its 100th BTC purchase.
The company added 592 BTC for roughly $39.8 million.
Total holdings now stand at 717,722 BTC. That is about 3.6% of circulating supply.
Their average cost basis? Around $54.56 billion invested in total, currently sitting at an unrealized loss of roughly 15%.
Historically, Strategy has a reputation for buying near local highs. And once again, BTC is trading below their latest purchase price.
This does not invalidate their long-term conviction. But in the short term, it shows even large players are not timing bottoms perfectly.
The “Ramadan Rally” Looks Unlikely in 2026
There is often talk about a so-called Ramadan rally in Bitcoin.
Let’s be clear. Ramadan has nothing structurally to do with crypto markets. Bitcoin moves based on liquidity, positioning, macro data, and sentiment.
However, looking at the last seven Ramadan periods between 2019 and 2025, a pattern appears:
- A sharp move early in the period
- Followed by volatile and unstable trading
- Often ending with weakness or a retrace
In 2026, the structure looks weaker.
Instead of a strong opening rally, we saw sideways action, followed by a sharp flush lower. The structure is familiar. But the strength is missing.
On-chain data is mixed.
The Binance Buying Power Index suggests selling pressure may be exhausting. That can be contrarian bullish.
But network activity has remained weak for six months. That signals limited structural demand.
This environment often produces fragile bounces, not sustained bull runs.
Bitcoin Loses the 200-Week EMA
One of the more serious technical developments is the weekly close below the 200-week EMA.
Historically, in 2018 and 2022, a weekly close below this level triggered a second wave of bearish acceleration.
The pattern usually goes like this:
- Lose support
- Attempt reclaim
- Fail reclaim
- Accelerate lower
If BTC retests the underside of the 200-week EMA and it acts as resistance, downside continuation becomes more probable.
Some analysts even mention long-term downside targets near $30K in extreme bear scenarios.
That does not mean it happens tomorrow. But structurally, we cannot ignore it.
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Key Support: $60K Zone
The $60K region is now the most important level.
If BTC convincingly loses $60K, the door opens toward $50K or even $45K.
History shows that true bear market bottoms often form around major multi-cycle support zones. Panic, capitulation, and exhaustion usually align there.
RSI is currently deeply oversold. In previous cycles, that often led to strong relief rallies.
But oversold does not mean bottom.
In past bear markets, we saw powerful bounces before new lows.
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Now let’s talk about what I’m actually doing.
I went long at $62,850 this morning.
We were near range lows after a fake breakout above a 4H channel. My bias is that we remain in a range for now.
I do not believe we go straight down to the final bear market low.
We already had a big crash in February that printed local lows near $60K. I expect temporary accumulation before a relief rally.
So my strategy:
- Long near range bottom
- Hedge short near resistance
- Trade the range until confirmed breakout
Trade Details
- Entry: $62,850
- Stop loss: $61,800
- Upper target: $78,700
- Risk-reward: around 30R
That is the kind of trade I like.
I will monitor closely. I may open hedge shorts at resistance levels to reduce risk exposure. That allows me to keep the core long open while managing downside.
If bulls show strong momentum at resistance, I cut the hedge.
If bears take control, I close the long and let the short run.
Levels I’m Watching
In the short term, I expect another sweep around $63K. I will not panic if that happens. But I will watch closely for weakness or invalidation signals.
You find it difficult to navigate this range? No problem, check Gold and metals for other trading options.
The Bigger Picture
Mid-term, I remain cautious.
Short-term, I see opportunity.
This is classic range environment trading:
- Buy range lows
- Short range highs
- React, don’t predict
If we break above $70K with strength and hold, the air pocket toward $78K becomes interesting.
If we lose $60K decisively, structure shifts bearish fast.
For now, Bitcoin range trading strategy remains the playbook.
Final Thoughts
Markets feel uncomfortable right now.
News is negative. Sentiment is shaky. Macro uncertainty remains.
But ranges create opportunity.
You do not need to predict the final bear market bottom today. You need discipline, clear invalidation levels, and structured risk management.
Trade what you see.
Respect the levels.
And always protect capital first.
If you enjoyed this blog, check out our recent story on spending 4 BTC on Sushi dinners!
As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus below on Bybit. See you next time!
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